Ali Malik

Ali Malik, Volodymyr Kuleshov, Jiaming Song et al.

Estimates of predictive uncertainty are important for accurate model-based planning and reinforcement learning. However, predictive uncertainties---especially ones derived from modern deep learning systems---can be inaccurate and impose a bottleneck on performance. This paper explores which uncertainties are needed for model-based reinforcement learning and argues that good uncertainties must be calibrated, i.e. their probabilities should match empirical frequencies of predicted events. We describe a simple way to augment any model-based reinforcement learning agent with a calibrated model and show that doing so consistently improves planning, sample complexity, and exploration. On the \textsc{HalfCheetah} MuJoCo task, our system achieves state-of-the-art performance using 50\% fewer samples than the current leading approach. Our findings suggest that calibration can improve the performance of model-based reinforcement learning with minimal computational and implementation overhead.

Chris Piech, Ali Malik, Laura M Scott et al.

Chart-based visual acuity measurements are used by billions of people to diagnose and guide treatment of vision impairment. However, the ubiquitous eye exam has no mechanism for reasoning about uncertainty and as such, suffers from a well-documented reproducibility problem. In this paper we make two core contributions. First, we uncover a new parametric probabilistic model of visual acuity response based on detailed measurements of patients with eye disease. Then, we present an adaptive, digital eye exam using modern artificial intelligence techniques which substantially reduces acuity exam error over existing approaches, while also introducing the novel ability to model its own uncertainty and incorporate prior beliefs. Using standard evaluation metrics, we estimate a 74% reduction in prediction error compared to the ubiquitous chart-based eye exam and up to 67% reduction compared to the previous best digital exam. For patients with eye disease, the novel ability to finely measure acuity from home could be a crucial part in early diagnosis. We provide a web implementation of our algorithm for anyone in the world to use. The insights in this paper also provide interesting implications for the field of psychometric Item Response Theory.

Nate Gruver, Ali Malik, Brahm Capoor et al.

Understanding large-scale patterns in student course enrollment is a problem of great interest to university administrators and educational researchers. Yet important decisions are often made without a good quantitative framework of the process underlying student choices. We propose a probabilistic approach to modelling course enrollment decisions, drawing inspiration from multilabel classification and mixture models. We use ten years of anonymized student transcripts from a large university to construct a Gaussian latent variable model that learns the joint distribution over course enrollments. The models allow for a diverse set of inference queries and robustness to data sparsity. We demonstrate the efficacy of this approach in comparison to others, including deep learning architectures, and demonstrate its ability to infer the underlying student interests that guide enrollment decisions.

Ali Malik, Mike Wu, Vrinda Vasavada et al.

Access to high-quality education at scale is limited by the difficulty of providing student feedback on open-ended assignments in structured domains like computer programming, graphics, and short response questions. This problem has proven to be exceptionally difficult: for humans, it requires large amounts of manual work, and for computers, until recently, achieving anything near human-level accuracy has been unattainable. In this paper, we present generative grading: a novel computational approach for providing feedback at scale that is capable of accurately grading student work and providing nuanced, interpretable feedback. Our approach uses generative descriptions of student cognition, written as probabilistic programs, to synthesise millions of labelled example solutions to a problem; we then learn to infer feedback for real student solutions based on this cognitive model. We apply our methods to three settings. In block-based coding, we achieve a 50% improvement upon the previous best results for feedback, achieving super-human accuracy. In two other widely different domains -- graphical tasks and short text answers -- we achieve major improvement over the previous state of the art by about 4x and 1.5x respectively, approaching human accuracy. In a real classroom, we ran an experiment where we used our system to augment human graders, yielding doubled grading accuracy while halving grading time.