Aurélien Bibaut

Lars van der Laan, Aurelien Bibaut, Nathan Kallus

Inverse reinforcement learning (IRL) and dynamic discrete choice (DDC) models explain sequential decision-making by recovering reward functions that rationalize observed behavior. Flexible IRL methods typically rely on machine learning but provide no guarantees for valid inference, while classical DDC approaches impose restrictive parametric specifications and often require repeated dynamic programming. We develop a semiparametric framework for debiased inverse reinforcement learning that yields statistically efficient inference for a broad class of reward-dependent functionals in maximum entropy IRL and Gumbel-shock DDC models. We show that the log-behavior policy acts as a pseudo-reward that point-identifies policy value differences and, under a simple normalization, the reward itself. We then formalize these targets, including policy values under known and counterfactual softmax policies and functionals of the normalized reward, as smooth functionals of the behavior policy and transition kernel, establish pathwise differentiability, and derive their efficient influence functions. Building on this characterization, we construct automatic debiased machine-learning estimators that allow flexible nonparametric estimation of nuisance components while achieving $\sqrt{n}$-consistency, asymptotic normality, and semiparametric efficiency. Our framework extends classical inference for DDC models to nonparametric rewards and modern machine-learning tools, providing a unified and computationally tractable approach to statistical inference in IRL.

Zikai Shen, Houssam Zenati, Nathan Kallus et al.

We study inference on scalar-valued pathwise differentiable targets after adaptive data collection, such as a bandit algorithm. We introduce a novel target-specific condition, directional stability, which is strictly weaker than previously imposed target-agnostic stability conditions. Under directional stability, we show that estimators that would have been efficient under i.i.d. data remain asymptotically normal and semiparametrically efficient when computed from adaptively collected trajectories. The canonical gradient has a martingale form, and directional stability guarantees stabilization of its predictable quadratic variation, enabling high-dimensional asymptotic normality. We characterize efficiency using a convolution theorem for the adaptive-data setting, and give a condition under which the one-step estimator attains the efficiency bound. We verify directional stability for LinUCB, yielding the first semiparametric efficiency guarantee for a regular scalar target under LinUCB sampling.

Aurelien Bibaut, Houssam Zenati, Thibaud Rahier et al.

We propose a cross-fitted debiasing device for policy learning from offline data. A key consequence of the resulting learning principle is $\sqrt N$ regret even for policy classes with complexity greater than Donsker, provided a product-of-errors nuisance remainder is $O(N^{-1/2})$. The regret bound factors into a plug-in policy error factor governed by policy-class complexity and an environment nuisance factor governed by the complexity of the environment dynamics, making explicit how one may be traded against the other.

Lars van der Laan, David Hubbard, Allen Tran et al.

Double Reinforcement Learning (DRL) enables efficient inference for policy values in nonparametric Markov decision processes (MDPs), but existing methods face two major obstacles: (1) they require stringent intertemporal overlap conditions on state trajectories, and (2) they rely on estimating high-dimensional occupancy density ratios. Motivated by problems in long-term causal inference, we extend DRL to a semiparametric setting and develop doubly robust, automatic estimators for general linear functionals of the Q-function in infinite-horizon, time-homogeneous MDPs. By imposing structure on the Q-function, we relax the overlap conditions required by nonparametric methods and obtain efficiency gains. The second obstacle--density-ratio estimation--typically requires computationally expensive and unstable min-max optimization. To address both challenges, we introduce superefficient nonparametric estimators whose limiting variance falls below the generalized Cramer-Rao bound. These estimators treat the Q-function as a one-dimensional summary of the state-action process, reducing high-dimensional overlap requirements to a single-dimensional condition. The procedure is simple to implement: estimate and calibrate the Q-function using fitted Q-iteration, then plug the result into the target functional, thereby avoiding density-ratio estimation altogether.

Samuel Girard, Aurélien Bibaut, Houssam Zenati

Adaptive experiments produce dependent data that break i.i.d. assumptions that underlie classical concentration bounds and invalidate standard learning guarantees. In this paper, we develop a self-normalized maximal inequality for martingale empirical processes. Building on this, we first propose an adaptive sample-variance penalization procedure which balances empirical loss and sample variance, valid for general dependent data. Next, this allows us to derive a new variance-regularized pessimistic off-policy learning objective, for which we establish excess-risk guarantees. Subsequently, we show that, when combined with sequential updates and under standard complexity and margin conditions, the resulting estimator achieves fast convergence rates in both parametric and nonparametric regimes, improving over the usual $1/\sqrt{n}$ baseline. We complement our theoretical findings with numerical simulations that illustrate the practical gains of our approach.

Lars van der Laan, Nathan Kallus, Aurélien Bibaut

Inverse reinforcement learning (IRL) aims to explain observed behavior by uncovering an underlying reward. In the maximum-entropy or Gumbel-shocks-to-reward frameworks, this amounts to fitting a reward function and a soft value function that together satisfy the soft Bellman consistency condition and maximize the likelihood of observed actions. While this perspective has had enormous impact in imitation learning for robotics and understanding dynamic choices in economics, practical learning algorithms often involve delicate inner-loop optimization, repeated dynamic programming, or adversarial training, all of which complicate the use of modern, highly expressive function approximators like neural nets and boosting. We revisit softmax IRL and show that the population maximum-likelihood solution is characterized by a linear fixed-point equation involving the behavior policy. This observation reduces IRL to two off-the-shelf supervised learning problems: probabilistic classification to estimate the behavior policy, and iterative regression to solve the fixed point. The resulting method is simple and modular across function approximation classes and algorithms. We provide a precise characterization of the optimal solution, a generic oracle-based algorithm, finite-sample error bounds, and empirical results showing competitive or superior performance to MaxEnt IRL.

Brian M Cho, Aurélien Bibaut, Nathan Kallus

Multi-arm bandit experimental designs are increasingly being adopted over standard randomized trials due to their potential to improve outcomes for study participants, enable faster identification of the best-performing options, and/or enhance the precision of estimating key parameters. Current approaches for inference after adaptive sampling either rely on asymptotic normality under restricted experiment designs or underpowered martingale concentration inequalities that lead to weak power in practice. To bypass these limitations, we propose a simulation-based approach for conducting hypothesis tests and constructing confidence intervals for arm specific means and their differences. Our simulation-based approach uses positively biased nuisances to generate additional trajectories of the experiment, which we call \textit{simulation with optimism}. Using these simulations, we characterize the distribution potentially non-normal sample mean test statistic to conduct inference. We provide guarantees for (i) asymptotic type I error control, (ii) convergence of our confidence intervals, and (iii) asymptotic strong consistency of our estimator over a wide variety of common bandit designs. Our empirical results show that our approach achieves the desired coverage while reducing confidence interval widths by up to 50%, with drastic improvements for arms not targeted by the design.

Aurélien Bibaut, Antoine Chambaz, Maria Dimakopoulou et al.

Empirical risk minimization (ERM) is the workhorse of machine learning, whether for classification and regression or for off-policy policy learning, but its model-agnostic guarantees can fail when we use adaptively collected data, such as the result of running a contextual bandit algorithm. We study a generic importance sampling weighted ERM algorithm for using adaptively collected data to minimize the average of a loss function over a hypothesis class and provide first-of-their-kind generalization guarantees and fast convergence rates. Our results are based on a new maximal inequality that carefully leverages the importance sampling structure to obtain rates with the right dependence on the exploration rate in the data. For regression, we provide fast rates that leverage the strong convexity of squared-error loss. For policy learning, we provide rate-optimal regret guarantees that close an open gap in the existing literature whenever exploration decays to zero, as is the case for bandit-collected data. An empirical investigation validates our theory.

Aurélien Bibaut, Antoine Chambaz, Maria Dimakopoulou et al.

Contextual bandit algorithms are increasingly replacing non-adaptive A/B tests in e-commerce, healthcare, and policymaking because they can both improve outcomes for study participants and increase the chance of identifying good or even best policies. To support credible inference on novel interventions at the end of the study, nonetheless, we still want to construct valid confidence intervals on average treatment effects, subgroup effects, or value of new policies. The adaptive nature of the data collected by contextual bandit algorithms, however, makes this difficult: standard estimators are no longer asymptotically normally distributed and classic confidence intervals fail to provide correct coverage. While this has been addressed in non-contextual settings by using stabilized estimators, the contextual setting poses unique challenges that we tackle for the first time in this paper. We propose the Contextual Adaptive Doubly Robust (CADR) estimator, the first estimator for policy value that is asymptotically normal under contextual adaptive data collection. The main technical challenge in constructing CADR is designing adaptive and consistent conditional standard deviation estimators for stabilization. Extensive numerical experiments using 57 OpenML datasets demonstrate that confidence intervals based on CADR uniquely provide correct coverage.

Ivana Malenica, Aurelien Bibaut, Mark J. van der Laan

The current work is motivated by the need for robust statistical methods for precision medicine; as such, we address the need for statistical methods that provide actionable inference for a single unit at any point in time. We aim to learn an optimal, unknown choice of the controlled components of the design in order to optimize the expected outcome; with that, we adapt the randomization mechanism for future time-point experiments based on the data collected on the individual over time. Our results demonstrate that one can learn the optimal rule based on a single sample, and thereby adjust the design at any point t with valid inference for the mean target parameter. This work provides several contributions to the field of statistical precision medicine. First, we define a general class of averages of conditional causal parameters defined by the current context for the single unit time-series data. We define a nonparametric model for the probability distribution of the time-series under few assumptions, and aim to fully utilize the sequential randomization in the estimation procedure via the double robust structure of the efficient influence curve of the proposed target parameter. We present multiple exploration-exploitation strategies for assigning treatment, and methods for estimating the optimal rule. Lastly, we present the study of the data-adaptive inference on the mean under the optimal treatment rule, where the target parameter adapts over time in response to the observed context of the individual. Our target parameter is pathwise differentiable with an efficient influence function that is doubly robust - which makes it easier to estimate than previously proposed variations. We characterize the limit distribution of our estimator under a Donsker condition expressed in terms of a notion of bracketing entropy adapted to martingale settings.

Aurélien F. Bibaut, Antoine Chambaz, Mark J. van der Laan

We consider the model selection task in the stochastic contextual bandit setting. Suppose we are given a collection of base contextual bandit algorithms. We provide a master algorithm that combines them and achieves the same performance, up to constants, as the best base algorithm would, if it had been run on its own. Our approach only requires that each algorithm satisfy a high probability regret bound. Our procedure is very simple and essentially does the following: for a well chosen sequence of probabilities $(p_{t})_{t\geq 1}$, at each round $t$, it either chooses at random which candidate to follow (with probability $p_{t}$) or compares, at the same internal sample size for each candidate, the cumulative reward of each, and selects the one that wins the comparison (with probability $1-p_{t}$). To the best of our knowledge, our proposal is the first one to be rate-adaptive for a collection of general black-box contextual bandit algorithms: it achieves the same regret rate as the best candidate. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our method with simulation studies.

Aurélien F. Bibaut, Antoine Chambaz, Mark J. van der Laan

We propose the Generalized Policy Elimination (GPE) algorithm, an oracle-efficient contextual bandit (CB) algorithm inspired by the Policy Elimination algorithm of \cite{dudik2011}. We prove the first regret optimality guarantee theorem for an oracle-efficient CB algorithm competing against a nonparametric class with infinite VC-dimension. Specifically, we show that GPE is regret-optimal (up to logarithmic factors) for policy classes with integrable entropy. For classes with larger entropy, we show that the core techniques used to analyze GPE can be used to design an $\varepsilon$-greedy algorithm with regret bound matching that of the best algorithms to date. We illustrate the applicability of our algorithms and theorems with examples of large nonparametric policy classes, for which the relevant optimization oracles can be efficiently implemented.

Aurélien F. Bibaut, Ivana Malenica, Nikos Vlassis et al.

We study the problem of off-policy evaluation (OPE) in Reinforcement Learning (RL), where the aim is to estimate the performance of a new policy given historical data that may have been generated by a different policy, or policies. In particular, we introduce a novel doubly-robust estimator for the OPE problem in RL, based on the Targeted Maximum Likelihood Estimation principle from the statistical causal inference literature. We also introduce several variance reduction techniques that lead to impressive performance gains in off-policy evaluation. We show empirically that our estimator uniformly wins over existing off-policy evaluation methods across multiple RL environments and various levels of model misspecification. Finally, we further the existing theoretical analysis of estimators for the RL off-policy estimation problem by showing their $O_P(1/\sqrt{n})$ rate of convergence and characterizing their asymptotic distribution.

Cheng Ju, Aurélien Bibaut, Mark J. van der Laan

Artificial neural networks have been successfully applied to a variety of machine learning tasks, including image recognition, semantic segmentation, and machine translation. However, few studies fully investigated ensembles of artificial neural networks. In this work, we investigated multiple widely used ensemble methods, including unweighted averaging, majority voting, the Bayes Optimal Classifier, and the (discrete) Super Learner, for image recognition tasks, with deep neural networks as candidate algorithms. We designed several experiments, with the candidate algorithms being the same network structure with different model checkpoints within a single training process, networks with same structure but trained multiple times stochastically, and networks with different structure. In addition, we further studied the over-confidence phenomenon of the neural networks, as well as its impact on the ensemble methods. Across all of our experiments, the Super Learner achieved best performance among all the ensemble methods in this study.