Esther Rolf

Marc Rußwurm, Konstantin Klemmer, Esther Rolf et al.

Learning representations of geographical space is vital for any machine learning model that integrates geolocated data, spanning application domains such as remote sensing, ecology, or epidemiology. Recent work embeds coordinates using sine and cosine projections based on Double Fourier Sphere (DFS) features. These embeddings assume a rectangular data domain even on global data, which can lead to artifacts, especially at the poles. At the same time, little attention has been paid to the exact design of the neural network architectures with which these functional embeddings are combined. This work proposes a novel location encoder for globally distributed geographic data that combines spherical harmonic basis functions, natively defined on spherical surfaces, with sinusoidal representation networks (SirenNets) that can be interpreted as learned Double Fourier Sphere embedding. We systematically evaluate positional embeddings and neural network architectures across various benchmarks and synthetic evaluation datasets. In contrast to previous approaches that require the combination of both positional encoding and neural networks to learn meaningful representations, we show that both spherical harmonics and sinusoidal representation networks are competitive on their own but set state-of-the-art performances across tasks when combined. The model code and experiments are available at https://github.com/marccoru/locationencoder.

Lily Xu, Esther Rolf, Sara Beery et al. · mit

In this white paper, we synthesize key points made during presentations and discussions from the AI-Assisted Decision Making for Conservation workshop, hosted by the Center for Research on Computation and Society at Harvard University on October 20-21, 2022. We identify key open research questions in resource allocation, planning, and interventions for biodiversity conservation, highlighting conservation challenges that not only require AI solutions, but also require novel methodological advances. In addition to providing a summary of the workshop talks and discussions, we hope this document serves as a call-to-action to orient the expansion of algorithmic decision-making approaches to prioritize real-world conservation challenges, through collaborative efforts of ecologists, conservation decision-makers, and AI researchers.

Satej Soman, Emily Aiken, Esther Rolf et al. · berkeley

Machine learning-based estimates of poverty and wealth are increasingly being used to guide the targeting of humanitarian aid and the allocation of social assistance. However, the ground truth labels used to train these models are typically borrowed from existing surveys that were designed to produce national statistics -- not to train machine learning models. Here, we test whether adaptive sampling strategies for ground truth data collection can improve the performance of poverty prediction models. Through simulations, we compare the status quo sampling strategies (uniform at random and stratified random sampling) to alternatives that prioritize acquiring training data based on model uncertainty or model performance on sub-populations. Perhaps surprisingly, we find that none of these active learning methods improve over uniform-at-random sampling. We discuss how these results can help shape future efforts to refine machine learning-based estimates of poverty.

Haoran Zhang, Livia Betti, Konstantin Klemmer et al. · harvard, microsoft-research

In computer vision and machine learning for geographic data, out-of-domain generalization is a pervasive challenge, arising from uneven global data coverage and distribution shifts across geographic regions. Though models are frequently trained in one region and deployed in another, there is no principled method for determining when this cross-region adaptation will be successful. A well-defined notion of distance between distributions can effectively quantify how different a new target domain is compared to the domains used for model training, which in turn could support model training and deployment decisions. In this paper, we propose a strategy for computing distances between geospatial domains that leverages geographic information with Optimal Transport methods (GeoSpOT). In our experiments, GeoSpOT distances emerge as effective predictors of cross-domain transfer difficulty. We further demonstrate that embeddings from pretrained location encoders provide information comparable to image/text embeddings, despite relying solely on longitude-latitude pairs as input. This allows users to get an approximation of out-of-domain performance for geospatial models, even when the exact downstream task is unknown, or no task-specific data is available. Building on these findings, we show that GeoSpOT distances can preemptively guide data selection and enable predictive tools to analyze regions where a model is likely to underperform.

Konstantin Klemmer, Esther Rolf, Caleb Robinson et al.

Geographic information is essential for modeling tasks in fields ranging from ecology to epidemiology. However, extracting relevant location characteristics for a given task can be challenging, often requiring expensive data fusion or distillation from massive global imagery datasets. To address this challenge, we introduce Satellite Contrastive Location-Image Pretraining (SatCLIP). This global, general-purpose geographic location encoder learns an implicit representation of locations by matching CNN and ViT inferred visual patterns of openly available satellite imagery with their geographic coordinates. The resulting SatCLIP location encoder efficiently summarizes the characteristics of any given location for convenient use in downstream tasks. In our experiments, we use SatCLIP embeddings to improve prediction performance on nine diverse location-dependent tasks including temperature prediction, animal recognition, and population density estimation. Across tasks, SatCLIP consistently outperforms alternative location encoders and improves geographic generalization by encoding visual similarities of spatially distant environments. These results demonstrate the potential of vision-location models to learn meaningful representations of our planet from the vast, varied, and largely untapped modalities of geospatial data.

Amandeep Kaur, Mirali Purohit, Gedeon Muhawenayo et al.

New geospatial foundation models introduce a new model architecture and pretraining dataset, often sampled using different notions of data diversity. Performance differences are largely attributed to the model architecture or input modalities, while the role of the pretraining dataset is rarely studied. To address this research gap, we conducted a systematic study on how the geographic composition of pretraining data affects a model's downstream performance. We created global and per-continent pretraining datasets and evaluated them on global and per-continent downstream datasets. We found that the pretraining dataset from Europe outperformed global and continent-specific pretraining datasets on both global and local downstream evaluations. To investigate the factors influencing a pretraining dataset's downstream performance, we analysed 10 pretraining datasets using diversity across continents, biomes, landcover and spectral values. We found that only spectral diversity was strongly correlated with performance, while others were weakly correlated. This finding establishes a new dimension of diversity to be accounted for when creating a high-performing pretraining dataset. We open-sourced 7 new pretraining datasets, pretrained models, and our experimental framework at https://github.com/kerner-lab/pretrain-where.

Esther Rolf, Ben Packer, Alex Beutel et al.

Building trustworthy, effective, and responsible machine learning systems hinges on understanding how differences in training data and modeling decisions interact to impact predictive performance. In this work, we seek to better understand how we might characterize, detect, and design for data-model synergies. We focus on a particular type of data-model inefficiency, in which adding training data from some sources can actually lower performance evaluated on key sub-groups of the population, a phenomenon we refer to as negative data externalities on group performance. Such externalities can arise in standard learning settings and can manifest differently depending on conditions between training set size and model size. Data externalities directly imply a lower bound on feasible model improvements, yet improving models efficiently requires understanding the underlying data-model tensions. From a broader perspective, our results indicate that data-efficiency is a key component of both accurate and trustworthy machine learning.

Esther Rolf

As geospatial machine learning models and maps derived from their predictions are increasingly used for downstream analyses in science and policy, it is imperative to evaluate their accuracy and applicability. Geospatial machine learning has key distinctions from other learning paradigms, and as such, the correct way to measure performance of spatial machine learning outputs has been a topic of debate. In this paper, I delineate unique challenges of model evaluation for geospatial machine learning with global or remotely sensed datasets, culminating in concrete takeaways to improve evaluations of geospatial model performance.

Zhongying Wang, Kevin Lane, Levi Cai et al.

Supervised learning with Earth observation inputs is often limited by the sparsity of high-quality labeled or in-situ measured data to use as training labels. With the abundance of geographic data products, in many cases there are variables correlated with - but different from - the variable of interest that can be leveraged. We integrate such proxy variables within a geographic prior via a trainable location encoder and introduce a proxy consistency loss (PCL) formulation to imbue proxy data into the location encoder. The first key insight behind our approach is to use the location encoder as an agile and flexible way to learn from abundantly available proxy data which can be sampled independently of training label availability. Our second key insight is that we will need to regularize the location encoder appropriately to achieve performance and robustness with limited labeled data. Our experiments on air quality prediction and poverty mapping show that integrating proxy data implicitly through the location encoder outperforms using both as input to an observation encoder and fusion strategies that use frozen, pretrained location embeddings as a geographic prior. Superior performance for in-sample prediction shows that the PCL can incorporate rich information from the proxies, and superior out-of-sample prediction shows that the learned latent embeddings help generalize to areas without training labels.

Lucia Gordon, Esther Rolf, Milind Tambe

Stochastic multi-agent multi-armed bandits typically assume that the rewards from each arm follow a fixed distribution, regardless of which agent pulls the arm. However, in many real-world settings, rewards can depend on the sensitivity of each agent to their environment. In medical screening, disease detection rates can vary by test type; in preference matching, rewards can depend on user preferences; and in environmental sensing, observation quality can vary across sensors. Since past work does not specify how to allocate agents of heterogeneous but known sensitivity of these types in a stochastic bandit setting, we introduce a UCB-style algorithm, Min-Width, which aggregates information from diverse agents. In doing so, we address the joint challenges of (i) aggregating the rewards, which follow different distributions for each agent-arm pair, and (ii) coordinating the assignments of agents to arms. Min-Width facilitates efficient collaboration among heterogeneous agents, exploiting the known structure in the agents' reward functions to weight their rewards accordingly. We analyze the regret of Min-Width and conduct pseudo-synthetic and fully synthetic experiments to study the performance of different levels of information sharing. Our results confirm that the gains to modeling agent heterogeneity tend to be greater when the sensitivities are more varied across agents, while combining more information does not always improve performance.

Esther Rolf, Konstantin Klemmer, Caleb Robinson et al.

Satellite data has the potential to inspire a seismic shift for machine learning -- one in which we rethink existing practices designed for traditional data modalities. As machine learning for satellite data (SatML) gains traction for its real-world impact, our field is at a crossroads. We can either continue applying ill-suited approaches, or we can initiate a new research agenda that centers around the unique characteristics and challenges of satellite data. This position paper argues that satellite data constitutes a distinct modality for machine learning research and that we must recognize it as such to advance the quality and impact of SatML research across theory, methods, and deployment. We outline critical discussion questions and actionable suggestions to transform SatML from merely an intriguing application area to a dedicated research discipline that helps move the needle on big challenges for machine learning and society.

Arjun Rao, Marc Rußwurm, Konstantin Klemmer et al.

Within the context of representation learning for Earth observation, geographic Implicit Neural Representations (INRs) embed low-dimensional location inputs (longitude, latitude) into high-dimensional embeddings, through models trained on geo-referenced satellite, image or text data. Despite the common aim of geographic INRs to distill Earth's data into compact, learning-friendly representations, we lack an understanding of how much information is contained in these Earth representations, and where that information is concentrated. The intrinsic dimension of a dataset measures the number of degrees of freedom required to capture its local variability, regardless of the ambient high-dimensional space in which it is embedded. This work provides the first study of the intrinsic dimensionality of geographic INRs. Analyzing INRs with ambient dimension between 256 and 512, we find that their intrinsic dimensions fall roughly between 2 and 10 and are sensitive to changing spatial resolution and input modalities during INR pre-training. Furthermore, we show that the intrinsic dimension of a geographic INR correlates with downstream task performance and can capture spatial artifacts, facilitating model evaluation and diagnostics. More broadly, our work offers an architecture-agnostic, label-free metric of information content that can enable unsupervised evaluation, model selection, and pre-training design across INRs.

David Rolnick, Alan Aspuru-Guzik, Sara Beery et al. · mit

As applications of machine learning proliferate, innovative algorithms inspired by specific real-world challenges have become increasingly important. Such work offers the potential for significant impact not merely in domains of application but also in machine learning itself. In this paper, we describe the paradigm of application-driven research in machine learning, contrasting it with the more standard paradigm of methods-driven research. We illustrate the benefits of application-driven machine learning and how this approach can productively synergize with methods-driven work. Despite these benefits, we find that reviewing, hiring, and teaching practices in machine learning often hold back application-driven innovation. We outline how these processes may be improved.

Esther Rolf, Lucia Gordon, Milind Tambe et al.

While advances in machine learning with satellite imagery (SatML) are facilitating environmental monitoring at a global scale, developing SatML models that are accurate and useful for local regions remains critical to understanding and acting on an ever-changing planet. As increasing attention and resources are being devoted to training SatML models with global data, it is important to understand when improvements in global models will make it easier to train or fine-tune models that are accurate in specific regions. To explore this question, we contrast local and global training paradigms for SatML through a case study of tree canopy height (TCH) mapping in the Karingani Game Reserve, Mozambique. We find that recent advances in global TCH mapping do not necessarily translate to better local modeling abilities in our study region. Specifically, small models trained only with locally-collected data outperform published global TCH maps, and even outperform globally pretrained models that we fine-tune using local data. Analyzing these results further, we identify specific points of conflict and synergy between local and global modeling paradigms that can inform future research toward aligning local and global performance objectives in geospatial machine learning.

Mirali Purohit, Gedeon Muhawenayo, Esther Rolf et al.

Foundation models have made rapid advances in many domains including Earth observation, where Geospatial Foundation Models (GFMs) can help address global challenges such as climate change, agriculture, and disaster response. Previous work on GFMs focused on tailoring model architecture and pre-text tasks, and did not investigate the impact of pre-training data selection on model performance. However, recent works from other domains show that the pre-training data distribution is an important factor influencing the performance of the foundation models. With this motivation, our research explores how the geographic distribution of pre-training data affects the performance of GFMs. We evaluated several pre-training data distributions by sampling different compositions from a global data pool. Our experiments with two GFMs on downstream tasks indicate that balanced and globally representative data compositions often outperform region-specific sampling, highlighting the importance of diversity and global coverage in pre-training data. Our results suggest that the most appropriate data sampling technique may depend on the specific GFM architecture. These findings will support the development of robust GFMs by incorporating quality pre-training data distributions, ultimately improving machine learning solutions for Earth observation.

Livia Betti, Farooq Sanni, Gnouyaro Sogoyou et al.

In applications across agriculture, ecology, and human development, machine learning with satellite imagery (SatML) is limited by the sparsity of labeled training data. While satellite data cover the globe, labeled training datasets for SatML are often small, spatially clustered, and collected for other purposes (e.g., administrative surveys or field measurements). Despite the pervasiveness of this issue in practice, past SatML research has largely focused on new model architectures and training algorithms to handle scarce training data, rather than modeling data conditions directly. This leaves scientists and policymakers who wish to use SatML for large-scale monitoring uncertain about whether and how to collect additional data to maximize performance. Here, we present the first problem formulation for the optimization of spatial training data in the presence of heterogeneous data collection costs and realistic budget constraints, as well as novel methods for addressing this problem. In experiments simulating different problem settings across three continents and four tasks, our strategies reveal substantial gains from sample optimization. Further experiments delineate settings for which optimized sampling is particularly effective. The problem formulation and methods we introduce are designed to generalize across application domains for SatML; we put special emphasis on a specific problem setting where our coauthors can immediately use our findings to augment clustered agricultural surveys for SatML monitoring in Togo.

Arjun Rao, Esther Rolf

A large variety of geospatial data layers is available around the world ranging from remotely-sensed raster data like satellite imagery, digital elevation models, predicted land cover maps, and human-annotated data, to data derived from environmental sensors such as air temperature or wind speed data. A large majority of machine learning models trained on satellite imagery (SatML), however, are designed primarily for optical input modalities such as multi-spectral satellite imagery. To better understand the value of using other input modalities alongside optical imagery in supervised learning settings, we generate augmented versions of SatML benchmark tasks by appending additional geographic data layers to datasets spanning classification, regression, and segmentation. Using these augmented datasets, we find that fusing additional geographic inputs with optical imagery can significantly improve SatML model performance. Benefits are largest in settings where labeled data are limited and in geographic out-of-sample settings, suggesting that multi-modal inputs may be especially valuable for data-efficiency and out-of-sample performance of SatML models. Surprisingly, we find that hard-coded fusion strategies outperform learned variants, with interesting implications for future work.

Rahul Nair, Gabriel Tseng, Esther Rolf et al.

Previous studies showed that image datasets lacking geographic diversity can lead to biased performance in models trained on them. While earlier work studied general-purpose image datasets (e.g., ImageNet) and simple tasks like image recognition, we investigated geo-biases in real-world driving datasets on a more complex task: instance segmentation. We examined if instance segmentation models trained on European driving scenes (Eurocentric models) are geo-biased. Consistent with previous work, we found that Eurocentric models were geo-biased. Interestingly, we found that geo-biases came from classification errors rather than localization errors, with classification errors alone contributing 10-90% of the geo-biases in segmentation and 19-88% of the geo-biases in detection. This showed that while classification is geo-biased, localization (including detection and segmentation) is geographically robust. Our findings show that in region-specific models (e.g., Eurocentric models), geo-biases from classification errors can be significantly mitigated by using coarser classes (e.g., grouping car, bus, and truck as 4-wheeler).

Emily Aiken, Esther Rolf, Joshua Blumenstock

Poverty maps derived from satellite imagery are increasingly used to inform high-stakes policy decisions, such as the allocation of humanitarian aid and the distribution of government resources. Such poverty maps are typically constructed by training machine learning algorithms on a relatively modest amount of ``ground truth" data from surveys, and then predicting poverty levels in areas where imagery exists but surveys do not. Using survey and satellite data from ten countries, this paper investigates disparities in representation, systematic biases in prediction errors, and fairness concerns in satellite-based poverty mapping across urban and rural lines, and shows how these phenomena affect the validity of policies based on predicted maps. Our findings highlight the importance of careful error and bias analysis before using satellite-based poverty maps in real-world policy decisions.

Esther Rolf, Nikolay Malkin, Alexandros Graikos et al.

We propose a method for jointly inferring labels across a collection of data samples, where each sample consists of an observation and a prior belief about the label. By implicitly assuming the existence of a generative model for which a differentiable predictor is the posterior, we derive a training objective that allows learning under weak beliefs. This formulation unifies various machine learning settings; the weak beliefs can come in the form of noisy or incomplete labels, likelihoods given by a different prediction mechanism on auxiliary input, or common-sense priors reflecting knowledge about the structure of the problem at hand. We demonstrate the proposed algorithms on diverse problems: classification with negative training examples, learning from rankings, weakly and self-supervised aerial imagery segmentation, co-segmentation of video frames, and coarsely supervised text classification.

Esther Rolf, Theodora Worledge, Benjamin Recht et al.

Collecting more diverse and representative training data is often touted as a remedy for the disparate performance of machine learning predictors across subpopulations. However, a precise framework for understanding how dataset properties like diversity affect learning outcomes is largely lacking. By casting data collection as part of the learning process, we demonstrate that diverse representation in training data is key not only to increasing subgroup performances, but also to achieving population level objectives. Our analysis and experiments describe how dataset compositions influence performance and provide constructive results for using trends in existing data, alongside domain knowledge, to help guide intentional, objective-aware dataset design.

Esther Rolf, Jonathan Proctor, Tamma Carleton et al.

Combining satellite imagery with machine learning (SIML) has the potential to address global challenges by remotely estimating socioeconomic and environmental conditions in data-poor regions, yet the resource requirements of SIML limit its accessibility and use. We show that a single encoding of satellite imagery can generalize across diverse prediction tasks (e.g. forest cover, house price, road length). Our method achieves accuracy competitive with deep neural networks at orders of magnitude lower computational cost, scales globally, delivers label super-resolution predictions, and facilitates characterizations of uncertainty. Since image encodings are shared across tasks, they can be centrally computed and distributed to unlimited researchers, who need only fit a linear regression to their own ground truth data in order to achieve state-of-the-art SIML performance.

Esther Rolf, Max Simchowitz, Sarah Dean et al.

While real-world decisions involve many competing objectives, algorithmic decisions are often evaluated with a single objective function. In this paper, we study algorithmic policies which explicitly trade off between a private objective (such as profit) and a public objective (such as social welfare). We analyze a natural class of policies which trace an empirical Pareto frontier based on learned scores, and focus on how such decisions can be made in noisy or data-limited regimes. Our theoretical results characterize the optimal strategies in this class, bound the Pareto errors due to inaccuracies in the scores, and show an equivalence between optimal strategies and a rich class of fairness-constrained profit-maximizing policies. We then present empirical results in two different contexts -- online content recommendation and sustainable abalone fisheries -- to underscore the applicability of our approach to a wide range of practical decisions. Taken together, these results shed light on inherent trade-offs in using machine learning for decisions that impact social welfare.

Esther Rolf, Michael I. Jordan, Benjamin Recht

Observational data are often accompanied by natural structural indices, such as time stamps or geographic locations, which are meaningful to prediction tasks but are often discarded. We leverage semantically meaningful indexing data while ensuring robustness to potentially uninformative or misleading indices. We propose a post-estimation smoothing operator as a fast and effective method for incorporating structural index data into prediction. Because the smoothing step is separate from the original predictor, it applies to a broad class of machine learning tasks, with no need to retrain models. Our theoretical analysis details simple conditions under which post-estimation smoothing will improve accuracy over that of the original predictor. Our experiments on large scale spatial and temporal datasets highlight the speed and accuracy of post-estimation smoothing in practice. Together, these results illuminate a novel way to consider and incorporate the natural structure of index variables in machine learning.

Esther Rolf, David Fridovich-Keil, Max Simchowitz et al.

We study an adaptive source seeking problem, in which a mobile robot must identify the strongest emitter(s) of a signal in an environment with background emissions. Background signals may be highly heterogeneous and can mislead algorithms that are based on receding horizon control. We propose AdaSearch, a general algorithm for adaptive source seeking in the face of heterogeneous background noise. AdaSearch combines global trajectory planning with principled confidence intervals in order to concentrate measurements in promising regions while guaranteeing sufficient coverage of the entire area. Theoretical analysis shows that AdaSearch confers gains over a uniform sampling strategy when the distribution of background signals is highly variable. Simulation experiments demonstrate that when applied to the problem of radioactive source seeking, AdaSearch outperforms both uniform sampling and a receding time horizon information-maximization approach based on the current literature. We also demonstrate AdaSearch in hardware, providing further evidence of its potential for real-time implementation.

Lydia T. Liu, Sarah Dean, Esther Rolf et al.

Fairness in machine learning has predominantly been studied in static classification settings without concern for how decisions change the underlying population over time. Conventional wisdom suggests that fairness criteria promote the long-term well-being of those groups they aim to protect. We study how static fairness criteria interact with temporal indicators of well-being, such as long-term improvement, stagnation, and decline in a variable of interest. We demonstrate that even in a one-step feedback model, common fairness criteria in general do not promote improvement over time, and may in fact cause harm in cases where an unconstrained objective would not. We completely characterize the delayed impact of three standard criteria, contrasting the regimes in which these exhibit qualitatively different behavior. In addition, we find that a natural form of measurement error broadens the regime in which fairness criteria perform favorably. Our results highlight the importance of measurement and temporal modeling in the evaluation of fairness criteria, suggesting a range of new challenges and trade-offs.