General circulation models (GCMs) are the foundation of weather and climate prediction. GCMs are physics-based simulators which combine a numerical solver for large-scale dynamics with tuned representations for small-scale processes such as cloud formation. Recently, machine learning (ML) models trained on reanalysis data achieved comparable or better skill than GCMs for deterministic weather forecasting. However, these models have not demonstrated improved ensemble forecasts, or shown sufficient stability for long-term weather and climate simulations. Here we present the first GCM that combines a differentiable solver for atmospheric dynamics with ML components, and show that it can generate forecasts of deterministic weather, ensemble weather and climate on par with the best ML and physics-based methods. NeuralGCM is competitive with ML models for 1-10 day forecasts, and with the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts ensemble prediction for 1-15 day forecasts. With prescribed sea surface temperature, NeuralGCM can accurately track climate metrics such as global mean temperature for multiple decades, and climate forecasts with 140 km resolution exhibit emergent phenomena such as realistic frequency and trajectories of tropical cyclones. For both weather and climate, our approach offers orders of magnitude computational savings over conventional GCMs. Our results show that end-to-end deep learning is compatible with tasks performed by conventional GCMs, and can enhance the large-scale physical simulations that are essential for understanding and predicting the Earth system.
Thomas Frerix, Dmitrii Kochkov, Jamie A. Smith et al.
Variational data assimilation optimizes for an initial state of a dynamical system such that its evolution fits observational data. The physical model can subsequently be evolved into the future to make predictions. This principle is a cornerstone of large scale forecasting applications such as numerical weather prediction. As such, it is implemented in current operational systems of weather forecasting agencies across the globe. However, finding a good initial state poses a difficult optimization problem in part due to the non-invertible relationship between physical states and their corresponding observations. We learn a mapping from observational data to physical states and show how it can be used to improve optimizability. We employ this mapping in two ways: to better initialize the non-convex optimization problem, and to reformulate the objective function in better behaved physics space instead of observation space. Our experimental results for the Lorenz96 model and a two-dimensional turbulent fluid flow demonstrate that this procedure significantly improves forecast quality for chaotic systems.
Dmitrii Kochkov, Jamie A. Smith, Ayya Alieva et al.
Numerical simulation of fluids plays an essential role in modeling many physical phenomena, such as weather, climate, aerodynamics and plasma physics. Fluids are well described by the Navier-Stokes equations, but solving these equations at scale remains daunting, limited by the computational cost of resolving the smallest spatiotemporal features. This leads to unfavorable trade-offs between accuracy and tractability. Here we use end-to-end deep learning to improve approximations inside computational fluid dynamics for modeling two-dimensional turbulent flows. For both direct numerical simulation of turbulence and large eddy simulation, our results are as accurate as baseline solvers with 8-10x finer resolution in each spatial dimension, resulting in 40-80x fold computational speedups. Our method remains stable during long simulations, and generalizes to forcing functions and Reynolds numbers outside of the flows where it is trained, in contrast to black box machine learning approaches. Our approach exemplifies how scientific computing can leverage machine learning and hardware accelerators to improve simulations without sacrificing accuracy or generalization.
Milad Hashemi, Kevin Swersky, Jamie A. Smith et al.
The explosion in workload complexity and the recent slow-down in Moore's law scaling call for new approaches towards efficient computing. Researchers are now beginning to use recent advances in machine learning in software optimizations, augmenting or replacing traditional heuristics and data structures. However, the space of machine learning for computer hardware architecture is only lightly explored. In this paper, we demonstrate the potential of deep learning to address the von Neumann bottleneck of memory performance. We focus on the critical problem of learning memory access patterns, with the goal of constructing accurate and efficient memory prefetchers. We relate contemporary prefetching strategies to n-gram models in natural language processing, and show how recurrent neural networks can serve as a drop-in replacement. On a suite of challenging benchmark datasets, we find that neural networks consistently demonstrate superior performance in terms of precision and recall. This work represents the first step towards practical neural-network based prefetching, and opens a wide range of exciting directions for machine learning in computer architecture research.
We present a framework for specifying, training, evaluating, and deploying machine learning models. Our focus is on simplifying cutting edge machine learning for practitioners in order to bring such technologies into production. Recognizing the fast evolution of the field of deep learning, we make no attempt to capture the design space of all possible model architectures in a domain- specific language (DSL) or similar configuration language. We allow users to write code to define their models, but provide abstractions that guide develop- ers to write models in ways conducive to productionization. We also provide a unifying Estimator interface, making it possible to write downstream infrastructure (e.g. distributed training, hyperparameter tuning) independent of the model implementation. We balance the competing demands for flexibility and simplicity by offering APIs at different levels of abstraction, making common model architectures available out of the box, while providing a library of utilities designed to speed up experimentation with model architectures. To make out of the box models flexible and usable across a wide range of problems, these canned Estimators are parameterized not only over traditional hyperparameters, but also using feature columns, a declarative specification describing how to interpret input data. We discuss our experience in using this framework in re- search and production environments, and show the impact on code health, maintainability, and development speed.