Stephen Bates

Tiffany Ding, Anastasios N. Angelopoulos, Stephen Bates et al. · berkeley

Standard conformal prediction methods provide a marginal coverage guarantee, which means that for a random test point, the conformal prediction set contains the true label with a user-specified probability. In many classification problems, we would like to obtain a stronger guarantee--that for test points of a specific class, the prediction set contains the true label with the same user-chosen probability. For the latter goal, existing conformal prediction methods do not work well when there is a limited amount of labeled data per class, as is often the case in real applications where the number of classes is large. We propose a method called clustered conformal prediction that clusters together classes having "similar" conformal scores and performs conformal prediction at the cluster level. Based on empirical evaluation across four image data sets with many (up to 1000) classes, we find that clustered conformal typically outperforms existing methods in terms of class-conditional coverage and set size metrics.

Anastasios N. Angelopoulos, Stephen Bates, Adam Fisch et al. · berkeley, mit

We extend conformal prediction to control the expected value of any monotone loss function. The algorithm generalizes split conformal prediction together with its coverage guarantee. Like conformal prediction, the conformal risk control procedure is tight up to an $\mathcal{O}(1/n)$ factor. We also introduce extensions of the idea to distribution shift, quantile risk control, multiple and adversarial risk control, and expectations of U-statistics. Worked examples from computer vision and natural language processing demonstrate the usage of our algorithm to bound the false negative rate, graph distance, and token-level F1-score.

Anastasios N. Angelopoulos, Stephen Bates, Clara Fannjiang et al. · berkeley

Prediction-powered inference is a framework for performing valid statistical inference when an experimental dataset is supplemented with predictions from a machine-learning system. The framework yields simple algorithms for computing provably valid confidence intervals for quantities such as means, quantiles, and linear and logistic regression coefficients, without making any assumptions on the machine-learning algorithm that supplies the predictions. Furthermore, more accurate predictions translate to smaller confidence intervals. Prediction-powered inference could enable researchers to draw valid and more data-efficient conclusions using machine learning. The benefits of prediction-powered inference are demonstrated with datasets from proteomics, astronomy, genomics, remote sensing, census analysis, and ecology.

Swami Sankaranarayanan, Anastasios N. Angelopoulos, Stephen Bates et al. · berkeley

Meaningful uncertainty quantification in computer vision requires reasoning about semantic information -- say, the hair color of the person in a photo or the location of a car on the street. To this end, recent breakthroughs in generative modeling allow us to represent semantic information in disentangled latent spaces, but providing uncertainties on the semantic latent variables has remained challenging. In this work, we provide principled uncertainty intervals that are guaranteed to contain the true semantic factors for any underlying generative model. The method does the following: (1) it uses quantile regression to output a heuristic uncertainty interval for each element in the latent space (2) calibrates these uncertainties such that they contain the true value of the latent for a new, unseen input. The endpoints of these calibrated intervals can then be propagated through the generator to produce interpretable uncertainty visualizations for each semantic factor. This technique reliably communicates semantically meaningful, principled, and instance-adaptive uncertainty in inverse problems like image super-resolution and image completion.

Anastasios N. Angelopoulos, Karl Krauth, Stephen Bates et al. · berkeley

When building recommendation systems, we seek to output a helpful set of items to the user. Under the hood, a ranking model predicts which of two candidate items is better, and we must distill these pairwise comparisons into the user-facing output. However, a learned ranking model is never perfect, so taking its predictions at face value gives no guarantee that the user-facing output is reliable. Building from a pre-trained ranking model, we show how to return a set of items that is rigorously guaranteed to contain mostly good items. Our procedure endows any ranking model with rigorous finite-sample control of the false discovery rate (FDR), regardless of the (unknown) data distribution. Moreover, our calibration algorithm enables the easy and principled integration of multiple objectives in recommender systems. As an example, we show how to optimize for recommendation diversity subject to a user-specified level of FDR control, circumventing the need to specify ad hoc weights of a diversity loss against an accuracy loss. Throughout, we focus on the problem of learning to rank a set of possible recommendations, evaluating our methods on the Yahoo! Learning to Rank and MSMarco datasets.

Bat-Sheva Einbinder, Shai Feldman, Stephen Bates et al. · berkeley

We study the robustness of conformal prediction, a powerful tool for uncertainty quantification, to label noise. Our analysis tackles both regression and classification problems, characterizing when and how it is possible to construct uncertainty sets that correctly cover the unobserved noiseless ground truth labels. We further extend our theory and formulate the requirements for correctly controlling a general loss function, such as the false negative proportion, with noisy labels. Our theory and experiments suggest that conformal prediction and risk-controlling techniques with noisy labels attain conservative risk over the clean ground truth labels whenever the noise is dispersive and increases variability. In other adversarial cases, we can also correct for noise of bounded size in the conformal prediction algorithm in order to ensure achieving the correct risk of the ground truth labels without score or data regularity.

Nivasini Ananthakrishnan, Stephen Bates, Michael I. Jordan et al.

Motivated by the emergence of decentralized machine learning (ML) ecosystems, we study the delegation of data collection. Taking the field of contract theory as our starting point, we design optimal and near-optimal contracts that deal with two fundamental information asymmetries that arise in decentralized ML: uncertainty in the assessment of model quality and uncertainty regarding the optimal performance of any model. We show that a principal can cope with such asymmetry via simple linear contracts that achieve 1-1/e fraction of the optimal utility. To address the lack of a priori knowledge regarding the optimal performance, we give a convex program that can adaptively and efficiently compute the optimal contract. We also study linear contracts and derive the optimal utility in the more complex setting of multiple interactions.

Banghua Zhu, Stephen Bates, Zhuoran Yang et al.

We study the hidden-action principal-agent problem in an online setting. In each round, the principal posts a contract that specifies the payment to the agent based on each outcome. The agent then makes a strategic choice of action that maximizes her own utility, but the action is not directly observable by the principal. The principal observes the outcome and receives utility from the agent's choice of action. Based on past observations, the principal dynamically adjusts the contracts with the goal of maximizing her utility. We introduce an online learning algorithm and provide an upper bound on its Stackelberg regret. We show that when the contract space is $[0,1]^m$, the Stackelberg regret is upper bounded by $\widetilde O(\sqrt{m} \cdot T^{1-1/(2m+1)})$, and lower bounded by $Ω(T^{1-1/(m+2)})$, where $\widetilde O$ omits logarithmic factors. This result shows that exponential-in-$m$ samples are sufficient and necessary to learn a near-optimal contract, resolving an open problem on the hardness of online contract design. Moreover, when contracts are restricted to some subset $\mathcal{F} \subset [0,1]^m$, we define an intrinsic dimension of $\mathcal{F}$ that depends on the covering number of the spherical code in the space and bound the regret in terms of this intrinsic dimension. When $\mathcal{F}$ is the family of linear contracts, we show that the Stackelberg regret grows exactly as $Θ(T^{2/3})$. The contract design problem is challenging because the utility function is discontinuous. Bounding the discretization error in this setting has been an open problem. In this paper, we identify a limited set of directions in which the utility function is continuous, allowing us to design a new discretization method and bound its error. This approach enables the first upper bound with no restrictions on the contract and action space.

Shai Feldman, Liran Ringel, Stephen Bates et al.

To provide rigorous uncertainty quantification for online learning models, we develop a framework for constructing uncertainty sets that provably control risk -- such as coverage of confidence intervals, false negative rate, or F1 score -- in the online setting. This extends conformal prediction to apply to a larger class of online learning problems. Our method guarantees risk control at any user-specified level even when the underlying data distribution shifts drastically, even adversarially, over time in an unknown fashion. The technique we propose is highly flexible as it can be applied with any base online learning algorithm (e.g., a deep neural network trained online), requiring minimal implementation effort and essentially zero additional computational cost. We further extend our approach to control multiple risks simultaneously, so the prediction sets we generate are valid for all given risks. To demonstrate the utility of our method, we conduct experiments on real-world tabular time-series data sets showing that the proposed method rigorously controls various natural risks. Furthermore, we show how to construct valid intervals for an online image-depth estimation problem that previous sequential calibration schemes cannot handle.

Yaodong Yu, Stephen Bates, Yi Ma et al.

Uncertainty quantification is essential for the reliable deployment of machine learning models to high-stakes application domains. Uncertainty quantification is all the more challenging when training distribution and test distribution are different, even the distribution shifts are mild. Despite the ubiquity of distribution shifts in real-world applications, existing uncertainty quantification approaches mainly study the in-distribution setting where the train and test distributions are the same. In this paper, we develop a systematic calibration model to handle distribution shifts by leveraging data from multiple domains. Our proposed method -- multi-domain temperature scaling -- uses the heterogeneity in the domains to improve calibration robustness under distribution shift. Through experiments on three benchmark data sets, we find our proposed method outperforms existing methods as measured on both in-distribution and out-of-distribution test sets.

Stephen Bates, Michael I. Jordan, Michael Sklar et al.

Consider the relationship between a regulator (the principal) and an experimenter (the agent) such as a pharmaceutical company. The pharmaceutical company wishes to sell a drug for profit, whereas the regulator wishes to allow only efficacious drugs to be marketed. The efficacy of the drug is not known to the regulator, so the pharmaceutical company must run a costly trial to prove efficacy to the regulator. Critically, the statistical protocol used to establish efficacy affects the behavior of a strategic, self-interested agent; a lower standard of statistical evidence incentivizes the agent to run more trials that are less likely to be effective. The interaction between the statistical protocol and the incentives of the pharmaceutical company is crucial for understanding this system and designing protocols with high social utility. In this work, we discuss how the regulator can set up a protocol with payoffs based on statistical evidence. We show how to design protocols that are robust to an agent's strategic actions, and derive the optimal protocol in the presence of strategic entrants.

Stephen Bates, Michael I. Jordan, Michael Sklar et al.

Contemporary scientific research is a distributed, collaborative endeavor, carried out by teams of researchers, regulatory institutions, funding agencies, commercial partners, and scientific bodies, all interacting with each other and facing different incentives. To maintain scientific rigor, statistical methods should acknowledge this state of affairs. To this end, we study hypothesis testing when there is an agent (e.g., a researcher or a pharmaceutical company) with a private prior about an unknown parameter and a principal (e.g., a policymaker or regulator) who wishes to make decisions based on the parameter value. The agent chooses whether to run a statistical trial based on their private prior and then the result of the trial is used by the principal to reach a decision. We show how the principal can conduct statistical inference that leverages the information that is revealed by an agent's strategic behavior -- their choice to run a trial or not. In particular, we show how the principal can design a policy to elucidate partial information about the agent's private prior beliefs and use this to control the posterior probability of the null. One implication is a simple guideline for the choice of significance threshold in clinical trials: the type-I error level should be set to be strictly less than the cost of the trial divided by the firm's profit if the trial is successful.

Anastasios N. Angelopoulos, Rina Foygel Barber, Stephen Bates · berkeley

We introduce a method for online conformal prediction with decaying step sizes. Like previous methods, ours possesses a retrospective guarantee of coverage for arbitrary sequences. However, unlike previous methods, we can simultaneously estimate a population quantile when it exists. Our theory and experiments indicate substantially improved practical properties: in particular, when the distribution is stable, the coverage is close to the desired level for every time point, not just on average over the observed sequence.

Dan M. Kluger, Kerri Lu, Tijana Zrnic et al.

Machine learning models are increasingly used to produce predictions that serve as input data in subsequent statistical analyses. For example, computer vision predictions of economic and environmental indicators based on satellite imagery are used in downstream regressions; similarly, language models are widely used to approximate human ratings and opinions in social science research. However, failure to properly account for errors in the machine learning predictions renders standard statistical procedures invalid. Prior work uses what we call the Predict-Then-Debias estimator to give valid confidence intervals when machine learning algorithms impute missing variables, assuming a small complete sample from the population of interest. We expand the scope by introducing bootstrap confidence intervals that apply when the complete data is a nonuniform (i.e., weighted, stratified, or clustered) sample and to settings where an arbitrary subset of features is imputed. Importantly, the method can be applied to many settings without requiring additional calculations. We prove that these confidence intervals are valid under no assumptions on the quality of the machine learning model and are no wider than the intervals obtained by methods that do not use machine learning predictions.

Cai Zhou, Chenxiao Yang, Yi Hu et al.

Diffusion language models, especially masked discrete diffusion models, have achieved great success recently. While there are some theoretical and primary empirical results showing the advantages of latent reasoning with looped transformers or continuous chain-of-thoughts, continuous diffusion models typically underperform their discrete counterparts. In this paper, we argue that diffusion language models do not necessarily need to be in the discrete space. In particular, we prove that continuous diffusion models have stronger expressivity than discrete diffusions and looped transformers. We attribute the contradiction between the theoretical expressiveness and empirical performance to their practical trainability: while continuous diffusion provides intermediate supervision that looped transformers lack, they introduce additional difficulty decoding tokens into the discrete token space from the continuous representation space. We therefore propose Coevolutionary Continuous Discrete Diffusion (CCDD), which defines a joint multimodal diffusion process on the union of a continuous representation space and a discrete token space, leveraging a single model to simultaneously denoise in the joint space. By combining two modalities, CCDD is expressive with rich semantics in the latent space, as well as good trainability and sample quality with the help of explicit discrete tokens. We also propose effective architectures and advanced training/sampling techniques for CCDD, which reveals strong empirical performance in extensive language modeling experiments on real-world tasks.

Drew T. Nguyen, Reese Pathak, Anastasios N. Angelopoulos et al. · berkeley

Decision-making pipelines are generally characterized by tradeoffs among various risk functions. It is often desirable to manage such tradeoffs in a data-adaptive manner. As we demonstrate, if this is done naively, state-of-the art uncertainty quantification methods can lead to significant violations of putative risk guarantees. To address this issue, we develop methods that permit valid control of risk when threshold and tradeoff parameters are chosen adaptively. Our methodology supports monotone and nearly-monotone risks, but otherwise makes no distributional assumptions. To illustrate the benefits of our approach, we carry out numerical experiments on synthetic data and the large-scale vision dataset MS-COCO.

Flora C. Shi, Stephen Bates, Martin J. Wainwright

Statistical protocols are often used for decision-making involving multiple parties, each with their own incentives, private information, and ability to influence the distributional properties of the data. We study a game-theoretic version of hypothesis testing in which a statistician, also known as a principal, interacts with strategic agents that can generate data. The statistician seeks to design a testing protocol with controlled error, while the data-generating agents, guided by their utility and prior information, choose whether or not to opt in based on expected utility maximization. This strategic behavior affects the data observed by the statistician and, consequently, the associated testing error. We analyze this problem for general concave and monotonic utility functions and prove an upper bound on the Bayes false discovery rate (FDR). Underlying this bound is a form of prior elicitation: we show how an agent's choice to opt in implies a certain upper bound on their prior null probability. Our FDR bound is unimprovable in a strong sense, achieving equality at a single point for an individual agent and at any countable number of points for a population of agents. We also demonstrate that our testing protocols exhibit a desirable maximin property when the principal's utility is considered. To illustrate the qualitative predictions of our theory, we examine the effects of risk aversion, reward stochasticity, and signal-to-noise ratio, as well as the implications for the Food and Drug Administration's testing protocols.

Flora C. Shi, Martin J. Wainwright, Stephen Bates

We study hypothesis testing over a heterogeneous population of strategic agents with private information. Any single test applied uniformly across the population yields statistical error that is sub-optimal relative to the performance of an oracle given access to the private information. We show how it is possible to design menus of statistical contracts that pair type-optimal tests with payoff structures, inducing agents to self-select according to their private information. This separating menu elicits agent types and enables the principal to match the oracle performance even without a priori knowledge of the agent type. Our main result fully characterizes the collection of all separating menus that are instance-adaptive, matching oracle performance for an arbitrary population of heterogeneous agents. We identify designs where information elicitation is essentially costless, requiring negligible additional expense relative to a single-test benchmark, while improving statistical performance. Our work establishes a connection between proper scoring rules and menu design, showing how the structure of the hypothesis test constrains the elicitable information. Numerical examples illustrate the geometry of separating menus and the improvements they deliver in error trade-offs. Overall, our results connect statistical decision theory with mechanism design, demonstrating how heterogeneity and strategic participation can be harnessed to improve efficiency in hypothesis testing.

Cai Zhou, Chenyu Wang, Dinghuai Zhang et al.

In this paper we introduce Hierarchical Diffusion Language Models (HDLM) -- a novel family of discrete diffusion models for language modeling. HDLM builds on a hierarchical vocabulary where low-level tokens with detailed semantics are surjectively mapped to high-level tokens with coarse-grained meanings. In the forward process, each token is independently perturbed to its higher-level ancestor with more abstract semantics according to the scheduler, while in the reverse process the model progressively predicts the next, more detailed semantics. Taken together, HDLM provides a general time-varying next semantic scale prediction process for language modeling. We derive closed-form expressions for the diffusion Evidence Lower Bound (ELBO), and show that HDLM can be implemented in a flexible manner while including the existing MDLM as a special case. We also propose practical training techniques based on the insights. Extensive text generation experiments validate the effectiveness of HDLM, which demonstrates consistently lower validation and generative perplexity than baselines.

Anastasios N Angelopoulos, Amit P Kohli, Stephen Bates et al.

Image-to-image regression is an important learning task, used frequently in biological imaging. Current algorithms, however, do not generally offer statistical guarantees that protect against a model's mistakes and hallucinations. To address this, we develop uncertainty quantification techniques with rigorous statistical guarantees for image-to-image regression problems. In particular, we show how to derive uncertainty intervals around each pixel that are guaranteed to contain the true value with a user-specified confidence probability. Our methods work in conjunction with any base machine learning model, such as a neural network, and endow it with formal mathematical guarantees -- regardless of the true unknown data distribution or choice of model. Furthermore, they are simple to implement and computationally inexpensive. We evaluate our procedure on three image-to-image regression tasks: quantitative phase microscopy, accelerated magnetic resonance imaging, and super-resolution transmission electron microscopy of a Drosophila melanogaster brain.

Clara Fannjiang, Stephen Bates, Anastasios N. Angelopoulos et al.

Many applications of machine learning methods involve an iterative protocol in which data are collected, a model is trained, and then outputs of that model are used to choose what data to consider next. For example, one data-driven approach for designing proteins is to train a regression model to predict the fitness of protein sequences, then use it to propose new sequences believed to exhibit greater fitness than observed in the training data. Since validating designed sequences in the wet lab is typically costly, it is important to quantify the uncertainty in the model's predictions. This is challenging because of a characteristic type of distribution shift between the training and test data in the design setting -- one in which the training and test data are statistically dependent, as the latter is chosen based on the former. Consequently, the model's error on the test data -- that is, the designed sequences -- has an unknown and possibly complex relationship with its error on the training data. We introduce a method to quantify predictive uncertainty in such settings. We do so by constructing confidence sets for predictions that account for the dependence between the training and test data. The confidence sets we construct have finite-sample guarantees that hold for any prediction algorithm, even when a trained model chooses the test-time input distribution. As a motivating use case, we demonstrate with several real data sets how our method quantifies uncertainty for the predicted fitness of designed proteins, and can therefore be used to select design algorithms that achieve acceptable trade-offs between high predicted fitness and low predictive uncertainty.

Mariel Werner, Anastasios Angelopoulos, Stephen Bates et al.

The blessing of ubiquitous data also comes with a curse: the communication, storage, and labeling of massive, mostly redundant datasets. We seek to solve this problem at its core, collecting only valuable data and throwing out the rest via submodular maximization. Specifically, we develop algorithms for the online and distributed version of the problem, where data selection occurs in an uncoordinated fashion across multiple data streams. We design a general and flexible core selection routine for our algorithms which, given any stream of data, any assessment of its value, and any formulation of its selection cost, extracts the most valuable subset of the stream up to a constant factor while using minimal memory. Notably, our methods have the same theoretical guarantees as their offline counterparts, and, as far as we know, provide the first guarantees for online distributed submodular optimization in the literature. Finally, in learning tasks on ImageNet and MNIST, we show that our selection methods outperform random selection by $5-20\%$.

Shai Feldman, Stephen Bates, Yaniv Romano

We develop a method to generate predictive regions that cover a multivariate response variable with a user-specified probability. Our work is composed of two components. First, we use a deep generative model to learn a representation of the response that has a unimodal distribution. Existing multiple-output quantile regression approaches are effective in such cases, so we apply them on the learned representation, and then transform the solution to the original space of the response. This process results in a flexible and informative region that can have an arbitrary shape, a property that existing methods lack. Second, we propose an extension of conformal prediction to the multivariate response setting that modifies any method to return sets with a pre-specified coverage level. The desired coverage is theoretically guaranteed in the finite-sample case for any distribution. Experiments conducted on both real and synthetic data show that our method constructs regions that are significantly smaller compared to existing techniques.

Stephen Bates, Emmanuel Candès, Lihua Lei et al.

This paper studies the construction of p-values for nonparametric outlier detection, taking a multiple-testing perspective. The goal is to test whether new independent samples belong to the same distribution as a reference data set or are outliers. We propose a solution based on conformal inference, a broadly applicable framework which yields p-values that are marginally valid but mutually dependent for different test points. We prove these p-values are positively dependent and enable exact false discovery rate control, although in a relatively weak marginal sense. We then introduce a new method to compute p-values that are both valid conditionally on the training data and independent of each other for different test points; this paves the way to stronger type-I error guarantees. Our results depart from classical conformal inference as we leverage concentration inequalities rather than combinatorial arguments to establish our finite-sample guarantees. Furthermore, our techniques also yield a uniform confidence bound for the false positive rate of any outlier detection algorithm, as a function of the threshold applied to its raw statistics. Finally, the relevance of our results is demonstrated by numerical experiments on real and simulated data.

Anastasios N. Angelopoulos, Stephen Bates, Tijana Zrnic et al.

In real-world settings involving consequential decision-making, the deployment of machine learning systems generally requires both reliable uncertainty quantification and protection of individuals' privacy. We present a framework that treats these two desiderata jointly. Our framework is based on conformal prediction, a methodology that augments predictive models to return prediction sets that provide uncertainty quantification -- they provably cover the true response with a user-specified probability, such as 90%. One might hope that when used with privately-trained models, conformal prediction would yield privacy guarantees for the resulting prediction sets; unfortunately, this is not the case. To remedy this key problem, we develop a method that takes any pre-trained predictive model and outputs differentially private prediction sets. Our method follows the general approach of split conformal prediction; we use holdout data to calibrate the size of the prediction sets but preserve privacy by using a privatized quantile subroutine. This subroutine compensates for the noise introduced to preserve privacy in order to guarantee correct coverage. We evaluate the method on large-scale computer vision datasets.