Raymond Brummelhuis

Brad Baxter, Raymond Brummelhuis

We provide a surprising new application of classical approximation theory to a fundamental asset-pricing model of mathematical finance. Specifically, we calculate an analytic value for the correlation coefficient between exponential Brownian motion and its time average, and we find the use of divided differences greatly elucidates formulae, providing a path to several new results. As applications, we find that this correlation coefficient is always at least $1/\sqrt{2}$ and, via the Hermite--Genocchi integral relation, demonstrate that all moments of the time average are certain divided differences of the exponential function. We also prove that these moments agree with the somewhat more complex formulae obtained by Oshanin and Yor.

Brad Baxter, Raymond Brummelhuis

We establish precise convergence rates for semi-discrete schemes based on Radial Basis Function interpolation, as well as approximate approximation results for such schemes. Our schemes use stationary interpolation on regular grids, with basis functions from a general class of functions generalizing one introduced earlier by M. Buhmann. Our results apply to parabolic equations such as the heat equation or Kolmogorov-Fokker-Planck equations associated to Lévy processes, but also to certain hyperbolic equations.

Raymond Brummelhuis, Zhongmin Luo

Regulators require financial institutions to estimate counterparty default risks from liquid CDS quotes for the valuation and risk management of OTC derivatives. However, the vast majority of counterparties do not have liquid CDS quotes and need proxy CDS rates. Existing methods cannot account for counterparty-specific default risks; we propose to construct proxy CDS rates by associating to illiquid counterparty liquid CDS Proxy based on Machine Learning Techniques. After testing 156 classifiers from 8 most popular classifier families, we found that some classifiers achieve highly satisfactory accuracy rates. Furthermore, we have rank-ordered the performances and investigated performance variations amongst and within the 8 classifier families. This paper is, to the best of our knowledge, the first systematic study of CDS Proxy construction by Machine Learning techniques, and the first systematic classifier comparison study based entirely on financial market data. Its findings both confirm and contrast existing classifier performance literature. Given the typically highly correlated nature of financial data, we investigated the impact of correlation on classifier performance. The techniques used in this paper should be of interest for financial institutions seeking a CDS Proxy method, and can serve for proxy construction for other financial variables. Some directions for future research are indicated.