Stoil Ganev

Seth Nabarro, Stoil Ganev, Adrià Garriga-Alonso et al.

Bayesian neural networks that incorporate data augmentation implicitly use a ``randomly perturbed log-likelihood [which] does not have a clean interpretation as a valid likelihood function'' (Izmailov et al. 2021). Here, we provide several approaches to developing principled Bayesian neural networks incorporating data augmentation. We introduce a ``finite orbit'' setting which allows likelihoods to be computed exactly, and give tight multi-sample bounds in the more usual ``full orbit'' setting. These models cast light on the origin of the cold posterior effect. In particular, we find that the cold posterior effect persists even in these principled models incorporating data augmentation. This suggests that the cold posterior effect cannot be dismissed as an artifact of data augmentation using incorrect likelihoods.

Stoil Ganev, Laurence Aitchison

We currently do not have an understanding of semi-supervised learning (SSL) objectives such as pseudo-labelling and entropy minimization as log-likelihoods, which precludes the development of e.g. Bayesian SSL. Here, we note that benchmark image datasets such as CIFAR-10 are carefully curated, and we formulate SSL objectives as a log-likelihood in a generative model of data curation that was initially developed to explain the cold-posterior effect (Aitchison 2020). SSL methods, from entropy minimization and pseudo-labelling, to state-of-the-art techniques similar to FixMatch can be understood as lower-bounds on our principled log-likelihood. We are thus able to give a proof-of-principle for Bayesian SSL on toy data. Finally, our theory suggests that SSL is effective in part due to the statistical patterns induced by data curation. This provides an explanation of past results which show SSL performs better on clean datasets without any "out of distribution" examples. Confirming these results we find that SSL gave much larger performance improvements on curated than on uncurated data, using matched curated and uncurated datasets based on Galaxy Zoo 2.