Euan McLean

Ian R. McKenzie, Alexander Lyzhov, Michael Pieler et al. · stanford, utoronto

Work on scaling laws has found that large language models (LMs) show predictable improvements to overall loss with increased scale (model size, training data, and compute). Here, we present evidence for the claim that LMs may show inverse scaling, or worse task performance with increased scale, e.g., due to flaws in the training objective and data. We present empirical evidence of inverse scaling on 11 datasets collected by running a public contest, the Inverse Scaling Prize, with a substantial prize pool. Through analysis of the datasets, along with other examples found in the literature, we identify four potential causes of inverse scaling: (i) preference to repeat memorized sequences over following in-context instructions, (ii) imitation of undesirable patterns in the training data, (iii) tasks containing an easy distractor task which LMs could focus on, rather than the harder real task, and (iv) correct but misleading few-shot demonstrations of the task. We release the winning datasets at https://inversescaling.com/data to allow for further investigation of inverse scaling. Our tasks have helped drive the discovery of U-shaped and inverted-U scaling trends, where an initial trend reverses, suggesting that scaling trends are less reliable at predicting the behavior of larger-scale models than previously understood. Overall, our results suggest that there are tasks for which increased model scale alone may not lead to progress, and that more careful thought needs to go into the data and objectives for training language models.

Buck Shlegeris, Fabien Roger, Lawrence Chan et al.

Current language models are considered to have sub-human capabilities at natural language tasks like question-answering or writing code. However, language models are not trained to perform well at these tasks, they are trained to accurately predict the next token given previous tokes in tokenized text. It is not clear whether language models are better or worse than humans at next token prediction. To try to answer this question, we performed two distinct experiments to directly compare humans and language models on this front: one measuring top-1 accuracy and the other measuring perplexity. In both experiments, we find humans to be consistently \emph{worse} than even relatively small language models like GPT3-Ada at next-token prediction.

Tom Tseng, Euan McLean, Kellin Pelrine et al.

Prior work found that superhuman Go AIs can be defeated by simple adversarial strategies, especially "cyclic" attacks. In this paper, we study whether adding natural countermeasures can achieve robustness in Go, a favorable domain for robustness since it benefits from incredible average-case capability and a narrow, innately adversarial setting. We test three defenses: adversarial training on hand-constructed positions, iterated adversarial training, and changing the network architecture. We find that though some of these defenses protect against previously discovered attacks, none withstand freshly trained adversaries. Furthermore, most of the reliably effective attacks these adversaries discover are different realizations of the same overall class of cyclic attacks. Our results suggest that building robust AI systems is challenging even with extremely superhuman systems in some of the most tractable settings, and highlight two key gaps: efficient generalization of defenses, and diversity in training. For interactive examples of attacks and a link to our codebase, see https://goattack.far.ai.