David Sánchez

Najeeb Jebreel, David Sánchez, Josep Domingo-Ferrer

Membership inference attacks (MIAs) aim to determine whether a data sample was included in a machine learning (ML) model's training set and have become the de facto standard for measuring privacy leakages in ML. We propose an evaluation framework that defines the conditions under which MIAs constitute a genuine privacy threat, and review representative MIAs against it. We find that, under the realistic conditions defined in our framework, MIAs represent weak privacy threats. Thus, relying on them as a privacy metric in ML can lead to an overestimation of risk and to unnecessary sacrifices in model utility as a consequence of employing too strong defenses.

Juan De Gregorio, David Sánchez, Raúl Toral

Understanding the temporal dependence of precipitation is key to improving weather predictability and developing efficient stochastic rainfall models. We introduce an information-theoretic approach to quantify memory effects in discrete stochastic processes and apply it to daily precipitation records across the contiguous United States. The method is based on the predictability gain, a quantity derived from block entropy that measures the additional information provided by higher-order temporal dependencies. This statistic, combined with a bootstrap-based hypothesis testing and Fisher's method, enables a robust memory estimator from finite data. Tests with generated sequences show that this estimator outperforms other model-selection criteria such as AIC and BIC. Applied to precipitation data, the analysis reveals that daily rainfall occurrence is well described by low-order Markov chains, exhibiting regional and seasonal variations, with stronger correlations in winter along the West Coast and in summer in the Southeast, consistent with known climatological patterns. Overall, our findings establish a framework for building parsimonious stochastic descriptions, useful when addressing spatial heterogeneity in the memory structure of precipitation dynamics, and support further advances in real-time, data-driven forecasting schemes.