Matthew Deakin

Matthew Deakin, Thomas Morstyn, Dimitra Apostolopoulou et al.

Reactive power has been proposed as a method of voltage control for distribution networks, providing a means of increasing the amount of energy transferred from distributed generators to the bulk transmission network. The value of reactive power can therefore be measured according to an increase in transferred energy, where the transferred energy is defined as the total generated energy, less the total network losses. If network losses are ignored, an error in the valuation of a given amount of reactive power will be observed (leading to reactive power provision being under- or over-valued). The non-linear analytic solution of a two-bus network is studied, and non-trivial upper and lower bounds are determined for this `valuation error'. The properties predicted by this two-bus network are demonstrated to hold on a three-phase unbalanced distribution test feeder with good accuracy. This allows for an analytic assessment of the importance of losses in the valuation of reactive power in arbitrary networks.

Matthew Deakin, Thomas Morstyn, Dimitra Apostolopoulou et al.

In this paper, the power flow solution of the two bus network is used to analytically characterise maximum power transfer limits of distribution networks, when subject to both thermal and voltage constraints. Traditional analytic methods are shown to reach contradictory conclusions on the suitability of reactive power for increasing power transfer. Therefore, a more rigorous analysis is undertaken, yielding two solutions, both fully characterised by losses. The first is the well-known thermal limit. The second we define as the `marginal loss-induced maximum power transfer limit'. This is a point at which the marginal increases in losses are greater than increases in generated power. The solution is parametrised in terms of the ratio of resistive to reactive impedance, and yields the reactive power required. The accuracy and existence of these solutions are investigated using the IEEE 34 bus distribution test feeder, and show good agreement with the two bus approximation. The work has implications for the analysis of reactive power interventions in distribution networks, and for the optimal sizing of distributed generation.

Scott Angus, Jethro Browell, David Greenwood et al.

Low voltage (LV) distribution transformers face accelerating demand growth while replacement lead times and costs continue to rise, making improved utilisation of existing assets essential. Static and conservative protection devices (PDs) in distribution transformers are inflexible and limit the available headroom of the transformer. This paper presents a probabilistic framework for dynamically forecasting optimal thermal protection settings. The proposed approach directly predicts the day-ahead scale factor which maximises the dynamic thermal rating of the transformer from historical load, temperature, and metadata using clustered quantile regression models trained on 644 UK LV transformers. Probabilistic forecasting quantifies overheating risk directly through the prediction percentile, enabling risk-informed operational decisions. Results show a 10--12\% additional capacity gain compared to static settings, with hotspot temperature risk matching the selected percentile, including under realistic temperature forecast errors. These results demonstrate a practical approach for distribution network operators to take advantage of PDs with adaptive settings to maximise capacity and manage risk on operational time scales.