Jörg F. Unger

Paolo Villani, Daniel Andrés Arcones, Jörg F. Unger et al.

Modeling complex physical systems such as they arise in civil engineering applications requires finding a trade-off between physical fidelity and practicality. Consequently, deviations of simulation from measurements are ubiquitous even after model calibration due to the model discrepancy, which may result from deliberate modeling decisions, ignorance, or lack of knowledge.mIf the mismatch between simulation and measurements are deemed unacceptable, the model has to be improved. Targeted model improvement is challenging due to a non-local impact of model discrepancies on measurements and the dependence on sensor configurations. Many approaches to model improvement, such as Bayesian calibration with additive mismatch terms, gray-box models, symbolic regression, or stochastic model updating, often lack interpretability, generalizability, physical consistency, or practical applicability. This paper introduces a non-intrusive approach to model discrepancy analysis using mixture models. Instead of directly modifying the model structure, the method maps sensor readings to clusters of physically meaningful parameters, automatically assigning sensor readings to parameter vector clusters. This mapping can reveal systematic discrepancies and model biases, guiding targeted, physics-based refinements by the modeler. The approach is formulated within a Bayesian framework, enabling the identification of parameter clusters and their assignments via the Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm. The methodology is demonstrated through numerical experiments, including an illustrative example and a real-world case study of heat transfer in a concrete bridge.

Daniel Andrés Arcones, Aeneas Paul, Martin Weiser et al.

This study develops a Bayesian, uncertainty-aware framework for tendon breakage localization in pre-stressed concrete members using high-resolution data from distributed fiber-optic sensors (DFOS). DFOS enable full-field monitoring of strain changes on the surface of pre-stressed concrete members due to such failure. A finite element model (FEM) of an experimental tendon-breakage test is constructed, and model parameters are calibrated probabilistically against DFOS measurements. To capture model-form uncertainty (MFU), stochastic perturbations are embedded directly into material parameters, enabling the joint inference of physical properties and MFU within a unified probabilistic framework. Gaussian Process surrogates are employed to efficiently emulate the nonlinear FEM response, supporting computationally tractable Bayesian inference. A $ϕ$-divergence-based influence analysis identifies the DFOS measurements that most strongly shape the posterior distributions, providing interpretable diagnostics of sensor informativeness and model adequacy. The calibrated parameters and embedded uncertainties are then transferred to a FEM of a full-scale structural configuration, enabling prediction of tendon breakage localization under realistic conditions. A separability analysis of the predictive strain distributions quantifies the identifiability of tendon breakage at varying depths, assessing the confidence with which different damage scenarios can be distinguished given the propagated uncertainties. Results demonstrate that the framework achieves robust parameter calibration, interpretable diagnostics, and uncertainty-informed damage detection, integrating experimental data, embedded MFU, and probabilistic modeling. By systematically propagating both experimental and model uncertainties, the approach supports reliable tendon breakage localization and optimal DFOS placement.