Batin Kurt

Alex Tang, M. Emrullah Ildiz, Batin Kurt et al.

Selective State-Space Models (SSMs) such as Mamba have emerged as an alternative architecture to self-attention based transformers in sequence modeling tasks. Recent works have demonstrated the use of transformers in some filtering and output prediction tasks via in-context learning. In this paper, we analyze whether structured SSMs can work equally well for filtering of unknown systems. In particular, we train the SSM on trajectory samples from a set of systems. At run-time, the SSM is given the outputs of an unknown system from the same set and is expected to predict the next output online. Theoretically, under appropriate assumptions, we derive generalization bounds as to why SSMs succeed in such tasks. Empirically, we demonstrate the performance via several numerical examples. We also discuss the advantages and disadvantages of SSMs versus transformers for this task.

Batin Kurt, Umut Orguner

We propose analytical mean square error (MSE) expressions for the Kalman filter (KF) and the Kalman smoother (KS) for benchmark studies, where the true system dynamics are unknown or unavailable to the estimator. In such cases, as in benchmark evaluations for target tracking, the analysis relies on deterministic state trajectories. This setting introduces a model mismatch between the estimator and the true system, causing the covariance estimates to no longer reflect the actual estimation errors. To enable accurate performance prediction for deterministic state trajectories without relying on computationally intensive Monte Carlo simulations, we derive recursive MSE expressions with linear time complexity. The proposed framework also accounts for measurement model mismatch and provides an efficient tool for performance evaluation in benchmark studies involving long trajectories. Simulation results confirm the accuracy and computational efficiency of the proposed method.