Rose Yu

Xuan Zhang, Limei Wang, Jacob Helwig et al. · cambridge, mit

Advances in artificial intelligence (AI) are fueling a new paradigm of discoveries in natural sciences. Today, AI has started to advance natural sciences by improving, accelerating, and enabling our understanding of natural phenomena at a wide range of spatial and temporal scales, giving rise to a new area of research known as AI for science (AI4Science). Being an emerging research paradigm, AI4Science is unique in that it is an enormous and highly interdisciplinary area. Thus, a unified and technical treatment of this field is needed yet challenging. This work aims to provide a technically thorough account of a subarea of AI4Science; namely, AI for quantum, atomistic, and continuum systems. These areas aim at understanding the physical world from the subatomic (wavefunctions and electron density), atomic (molecules, proteins, materials, and interactions), to macro (fluids, climate, and subsurface) scales and form an important subarea of AI4Science. A unique advantage of focusing on these areas is that they largely share a common set of challenges, thereby allowing a unified and foundational treatment. A key common challenge is how to capture physics first principles, especially symmetries, in natural systems by deep learning methods. We provide an in-depth yet intuitive account of techniques to achieve equivariance to symmetry transformations. We also discuss other common technical challenges, including explainability, out-of-distribution generalization, knowledge transfer with foundation and large language models, and uncertainty quantification. To facilitate learning and education, we provide categorized lists of resources that we found to be useful. We strive to be thorough and unified and hope this initial effort may trigger more community interests and efforts to further advance AI4Science.

Peter Eckmann, Kunyang Sun, Bo Zhao et al.

Generation of drug-like molecules with high binding affinity to target proteins remains a difficult and resource-intensive task in drug discovery. Existing approaches primarily employ reinforcement learning, Markov sampling, or deep generative models guided by Gaussian processes, which can be prohibitively slow when generating molecules with high binding affinity calculated by computationally-expensive physics-based methods. We present Latent Inceptionism on Molecules (LIMO), which significantly accelerates molecule generation with an inceptionism-like technique. LIMO employs a variational autoencoder-generated latent space and property prediction by two neural networks in sequence to enable faster gradient-based reverse-optimization of molecular properties. Comprehensive experiments show that LIMO performs competitively on benchmark tasks and markedly outperforms state-of-the-art techniques on the novel task of generating drug-like compounds with high binding affinity, reaching nanomolar range against two protein targets. We corroborate these docking-based results with more accurate molecular dynamics-based calculations of absolute binding free energy and show that one of our generated drug-like compounds has a predicted $K_D$ (a measure of binding affinity) of $6 \cdot 10^{-14}$ M against the human estrogen receptor, well beyond the affinities of typical early-stage drug candidates and most FDA-approved drugs to their respective targets. Code is available at https://github.com/Rose-STL-Lab/LIMO.

Abhimanyu Das, Weihao Kong, Andrew Leach et al.

Recent work has shown that simple linear models can outperform several Transformer based approaches in long term time-series forecasting. Motivated by this, we propose a Multi-layer Perceptron (MLP) based encoder-decoder model, Time-series Dense Encoder (TiDE), for long-term time-series forecasting that enjoys the simplicity and speed of linear models while also being able to handle covariates and non-linear dependencies. Theoretically, we prove that the simplest linear analogue of our model can achieve near optimal error rate for linear dynamical systems (LDS) under some assumptions. Empirically, we show that our method can match or outperform prior approaches on popular long-term time-series forecasting benchmarks while being 5-10x faster than the best Transformer based model.

Salva Rühling Cachay, Duncan Watson-Parris, Rose Yu

AI-based weather forecasting now rivals traditional physics-based ensembles, but state-of-the-art (SOTA) models rely on specialized architectures and massive computational budgets, creating a high barrier to entry. We demonstrate that such complexity is unnecessary for frontier performance. We introduce U-Cast, a probabilistic forecaster built on a standard U-Net backbone trained with a simple recipe: deterministic pre-training on Mean Absolute Error followed by short probabilistic fine-tuning on the Continuous Ranked Probability Score (CRPS) using Monte Carlo Dropout for stochasticity. As a result, our model matches or exceeds the probabilistic skill of GenCast and IFS ENS at 1.5$^\circ\$ resolution while reducing training compute by over 10$\times$ compared to leading CRPS-based models and inference latency by over 10$\times$ compared to diffusion-based models. U-Cast trains in under 12 H200 GPU-days and generates a 60-step ensemble forecast in 11 seconds. These results suggest that scalable, general-purpose architectures paired with efficient training curricula can match complex domain-specific designs at a fraction of the cost, opening the training of frontier probabilistic weather models to the broader community. Our code is available at: https://github.com/Rose-STL-Lab/u-cast.

Mario Krenn, Lorenzo Buffoni, Bruno Coutinho et al.

A tool that could suggest new personalized research directions and ideas by taking insights from the scientific literature could significantly accelerate the progress of science. A field that might benefit from such an approach is artificial intelligence (AI) research, where the number of scientific publications has been growing exponentially over the last years, making it challenging for human researchers to keep track of the progress. Here, we use AI techniques to predict the future research directions of AI itself. We develop a new graph-based benchmark based on real-world data -- the Science4Cast benchmark, which aims to predict the future state of an evolving semantic network of AI. For that, we use more than 100,000 research papers and build up a knowledge network with more than 64,000 concept nodes. We then present ten diverse methods to tackle this task, ranging from pure statistical to pure learning methods. Surprisingly, the most powerful methods use a carefully curated set of network features, rather than an end-to-end AI approach. It indicates a great potential that can be unleashed for purely ML approaches without human knowledge. Ultimately, better predictions of new future research directions will be a crucial component of more advanced research suggestion tools.

Chen Cai, Truong Son Hy, Rose Yu et al.

Graph Transformer (GT) recently has emerged as a new paradigm of graph learning algorithms, outperforming the previously popular Message Passing Neural Network (MPNN) on multiple benchmarks. Previous work (Kim et al., 2022) shows that with proper position embedding, GT can approximate MPNN arbitrarily well, implying that GT is at least as powerful as MPNN. In this paper, we study the inverse connection and show that MPNN with virtual node (VN), a commonly used heuristic with little theoretical understanding, is powerful enough to arbitrarily approximate the self-attention layer of GT. In particular, we first show that if we consider one type of linear transformer, the so-called Performer/Linear Transformer (Choromanski et al., 2020; Katharopoulos et al., 2020), then MPNN + VN with only O(1) depth and O(1) width can approximate a self-attention layer in Performer/Linear Transformer. Next, via a connection between MPNN + VN and DeepSets, we prove the MPNN + VN with O(n^d) width and O(1) depth can approximate the self-attention layer arbitrarily well, where d is the input feature dimension. Lastly, under some assumptions, we provide an explicit construction of MPNN + VN with O(1) width and O(n) depth approximating the self-attention layer in GT arbitrarily well. On the empirical side, we demonstrate that 1) MPNN + VN is a surprisingly strong baseline, outperforming GT on the recently proposed Long Range Graph Benchmark (LRGB) dataset, 2) our MPNN + VN improves over early implementation on a wide range of OGB datasets and 3) MPNN + VN outperforms Linear Transformer and MPNN on the climate modeling task.

Salva Rühling Cachay, Bo Zhao, Hailey Joren et al.

While diffusion models can successfully generate data and make predictions, they are predominantly designed for static images. We propose an approach for efficiently training diffusion models for probabilistic spatiotemporal forecasting, where generating stable and accurate rollout forecasts remains challenging, Our method, DYffusion, leverages the temporal dynamics in the data, directly coupling it with the diffusion steps in the model. We train a stochastic, time-conditioned interpolator and a forecaster network that mimic the forward and reverse processes of standard diffusion models, respectively. DYffusion naturally facilitates multi-step and long-range forecasting, allowing for highly flexible, continuous-time sampling trajectories and the ability to trade-off performance with accelerated sampling at inference time. In addition, the dynamics-informed diffusion process in DYffusion imposes a strong inductive bias and significantly improves computational efficiency compared to traditional Gaussian noise-based diffusion models. Our approach performs competitively on probabilistic forecasting of complex dynamics in sea surface temperatures, Navier-Stokes flows, and spring mesh systems.

Rui Wang, Yihe Dong, Sercan Ö. Arik et al.

Temporal distributional shifts, with underlying dynamics changing over time, frequently occur in real-world time series and pose a fundamental challenge for deep neural networks (DNNs). In this paper, we propose a novel deep sequence model based on the Koopman theory for time series forecasting: Koopman Neural Forecaster (KNF) which leverages DNNs to learn the linear Koopman space and the coefficients of chosen measurement functions. KNF imposes appropriate inductive biases for improved robustness against distributional shifts, employing both a global operator to learn shared characteristics and a local operator to capture changing dynamics, as well as a specially-designed feedback loop to continuously update the learned operators over time for rapidly varying behaviors. We demonstrate that \ours{} achieves superior performance compared to the alternatives, on multiple time series datasets that are shown to suffer from distribution shifts.

Xiaolong Han, Zehong Wang, Bo Zhao et al.

Neural network weights are typically viewed as the end product of training, while most deep learning research focuses on data, features, and architectures. However, recent advances show that the set of all possible weight values (weight space) itself contains rich structure: pretrained models form organized distributions, exhibit symmetries, and can be embedded, compared, or even generated. Understanding such structures has tremendous impact on how neural networks are analyzed and compared, and on how knowledge is transferred across models, beyond individual training instances. This emerging research direction, which we refer to as Weight Space Learning (WSL), treats neural weights as a meaningful domain for analysis and modeling. This survey provides the first unified taxonomy of WSL. We categorize existing methods into three core dimensions: Weight Space Understanding (WSU), which studies the geometry and symmetries of weights; Weight Space Representation (WSR), which learns embeddings over model weights; and Weight Space Generation (WSG), which synthesizes new weights through hypernetworks or generative models. We further show how these developments enable practical applications, including model retrieval, continual and federated learning, neural architecture search, and data-free reconstruction. By consolidating fragmented progress under a coherent framework, this survey highlights weight space as a learnable, structured domain with growing impact across model analysis, transferring, and weight generation. We release an accompanying resource at https://github.com/Zehong-Wang/Awesome-Weight-Space-Learning.

Dongxia Wu, Matteo Chinazzi, Alessandro Vespignani et al.

Science and engineering fields use computer simulation extensively. These simulations are often run at multiple levels of sophistication to balance accuracy and efficiency. Multi-fidelity surrogate modeling reduces the computational cost by fusing different simulation outputs. Cheap data generated from low-fidelity simulators can be combined with limited high-quality data generated by an expensive high-fidelity simulator. Existing methods based on Gaussian processes rely on strong assumptions of the kernel functions and can hardly scale to high-dimensional settings. We propose Multi-fidelity Hierarchical Neural Processes (MF-HNP), a unified neural latent variable model for multi-fidelity surrogate modeling. MF-HNP inherits the flexibility and scalability of Neural Processes. The latent variables transform the correlations among different fidelity levels from observations to latent space. The predictions across fidelities are conditionally independent given the latent states. It helps alleviate the error propagation issue in existing methods. MF-HNP is flexible enough to handle non-nested high dimensional data at different fidelity levels with varying input and output dimensions. We evaluate MF-HNP on epidemiology and climate modeling tasks, achieving competitive performance in terms of accuracy and uncertainty estimation. In contrast to deep Gaussian Processes with only low-dimensional (< 10) tasks, our method shows great promise for speeding up high-dimensional complex simulations (over 7000 for epidemiology modeling and 45000 for climate modeling).

Jianke Yang, Robin Walters, Nima Dehmamy et al.

Despite the success of equivariant neural networks in scientific applications, they require knowing the symmetry group a priori. However, it may be difficult to know which symmetry to use as an inductive bias in practice. Enforcing the wrong symmetry could even hurt the performance. In this paper, we propose a framework, LieGAN, to automatically discover equivariances from a dataset using a paradigm akin to generative adversarial training. Specifically, a generator learns a group of transformations applied to the data, which preserve the original distribution and fool the discriminator. LieGAN represents symmetry as interpretable Lie algebra basis and can discover various symmetries such as the rotation group $\mathrm{SO}(n)$, restricted Lorentz group $\mathrm{SO}(1,3)^+$ in trajectory prediction and top-quark tagging tasks. The learned symmetry can also be readily used in several existing equivariant neural networks to improve accuracy and generalization in prediction.

Bo Zhao, Iordan Ganev, Robin Walters et al.

Empirical studies of the loss landscape of deep networks have revealed that many local minima are connected through low-loss valleys. Yet, little is known about the theoretical origin of such valleys. We present a general framework for finding continuous symmetries in the parameter space, which carve out low-loss valleys. Our framework uses equivariances of the activation functions and can be applied to different layer architectures. To generalize this framework to nonlinear neural networks, we introduce a novel set of nonlinear, data-dependent symmetries. These symmetries can transform a trained model such that it performs similarly on new samples, which allows ensemble building that improves robustness under certain adversarial attacks. We then show that conserved quantities associated with linear symmetries can be used to define coordinates along low-loss valleys. The conserved quantities help reveal that using common initialization methods, gradient flow only explores a small part of the global minimum. By relating conserved quantities to convergence rate and sharpness of the minimum, we provide insights on how initialization impacts convergence and generalizability.

Sophia Sun, Rose Yu

Accurate uncertainty measurement is a key step to building robust and reliable machine learning systems. Conformal prediction is a distribution-free uncertainty quantification algorithm popular for its ease of implementation, statistical coverage guarantees, and versatility for underlying forecasters. However, existing conformal prediction algorithms for time series are limited to single-step prediction without considering the temporal dependency. In this paper, we propose a Copula Conformal Prediction algorithm for multivariate, multi-step Time Series forecasting, CopulaCPTS. We prove that CopulaCPTS has finite sample validity guarantee. On several synthetic and real-world multivariate time series datasets, we show that CopulaCPTS produces more calibrated and sharp confidence intervals for multi-step prediction tasks than existing techniques.

Bo Zhao, Nima Dehmamy, Robin Walters et al.

Existing gradient-based optimization methods update parameters locally, in a direction that minimizes the loss function. We study a different approach, symmetry teleportation, that allows parameters to travel a large distance on the loss level set, in order to improve the convergence speed in subsequent steps. Teleportation exploits symmetries in the loss landscape of optimization problems. We derive loss-invariant group actions for test functions in optimization and multi-layer neural networks, and prove a necessary condition for teleportation to improve convergence rate. We also show that our algorithm is closely related to second order methods. Experimentally, we show that teleportation improves the convergence speed of gradient descent and AdaGrad for several optimization problems including test functions, multi-layer regressions, and MNIST classification.

Cai Zhou, Zijie Chen, Zian Li et al.

Many generative tasks in chemistry and science involve distributions invariant to group symmetries (e.g., permutation and rotation). A common strategy enforces invariance and equivariance through architectural constraints such as equivariant denoisers and invariant priors. In this paper, we challenge this tradition through the alternative canonicalization perspective: first map each sample to an orbit representative with a canonical pose or order, train an unconstrained (non-equivariant) diffusion or flow model on the canonical slice, and finally recover the invariant distribution by sampling a random symmetry transform at generation time. Building on a formal quotient-space perspective, our work provides a comprehensive theory of canonical diffusion by proving: (i) the correctness, universality and superior expressivity of canonical generative models over invariant targets; (ii) canonicalization accelerates training by removing diffusion score complexity induced by group mixtures and reducing conditional variance in flow matching. We then show that aligned priors and optimal transport act complementarily with canonicalization and further improves training efficiency. We instantiate the framework for molecular graph generation under $S_n \times SE(3)$ symmetries. By leveraging geometric spectra-based canonicalization and mild positional encodings, canonical diffusion significantly outperforms equivariant baselines in 3D molecule generation tasks, with similar or even less computation. Moreover, with a novel architecture Canon, CanonFlow achieves state-of-the-art performance on the challenging GEOM-DRUG dataset, and the advantage remains large in few-step generation.

Rui Wang, Robin Walters, Rose Yu

Exploiting symmetry in dynamical systems is a powerful way to improve the generalization of deep learning. The model learns to be invariant to transformation and hence is more robust to distribution shift. Data augmentation and equivariant networks are two major approaches to injecting symmetry into learning. However, their exact role in improving generalization is not well understood. In this work, we derive the generalization bounds for data augmentation and equivariant networks, characterizing their effect on learning in a unified framework. Unlike most prior theories for the i.i.d. setting, we focus on non-stationary dynamics forecasting with complex temporal dependencies.

Zihao Zhou, Rose Yu

Learning continuous-time point processes is essential to many discrete event forecasting tasks. However, integration poses a major challenge, particularly for spatiotemporal point processes (STPPs), as it involves calculating the likelihood through triple integrals over space and time. Existing methods for integrating STPP either assume a parametric form of the intensity function, which lacks flexibility; or approximating the intensity with Monte Carlo sampling, which introduces numerical errors. Recent work by Omi et al. [2019] proposes a dual network approach for efficient integration of flexible intensity function. However, their method only focuses on the 1D temporal point process. In this paper, we introduce a novel paradigm: AutoSTPP (Automatic Integration for Spatiotemporal Neural Point Processes) that extends the dual network approach to 3D STPP. While previous work provides a foundation, its direct extension overly restricts the intensity function and leads to computational challenges. In response, we introduce a decomposable parametrization for the integral network using ProdNet. This approach, leveraging the product of simplified univariate graphs, effectively sidesteps the computational complexities inherent in multivariate computational graphs. We prove the consistency of AutoSTPP and validate it on synthetic data and benchmark real-world datasets. AutoSTPP shows a significant advantage in recovering complex intensity functions from irregular spatiotemporal events, particularly when the intensity is sharply localized. Our code is open-source at https://github.com/Rose-STL-Lab/AutoSTPP.

Jianke Yang, Nima Dehmamy, Robin Walters et al.

Equivariant neural networks require explicit knowledge of the symmetry group. Automatic symmetry discovery methods aim to relax this constraint and learn invariance and equivariance from data. However, existing symmetry discovery methods are limited to simple linear symmetries and cannot handle the complexity of real-world data. We propose a novel generative model, Latent LieGAN (LaLiGAN), which can discover symmetries of nonlinear group actions. It learns a mapping from the data space to a latent space where the symmetries become linear and simultaneously discovers symmetries in the latent space. Theoretically, we show that our model can express nonlinear symmetries under some conditions about the group action. Experimentally, we demonstrate that our method can accurately discover the intrinsic symmetry in high-dimensional dynamical systems. LaLiGAN also results in a well-structured latent space that is useful for downstream tasks including equation discovery and long-term forecasting.

Ruijia Niu, Dongxia Wu, Rose Yu et al.

Accurate uncertainty quantification in large language models (LLMs) is essential for reliable confidence estimation, yet fine-tuned LLMs often become overconfident under limited adaptation data. Existing uncertainty methods for PEFT-based LLMs are largely post hoc, estimating uncertainty after fine-tuning rather than improving how adapters specialize to task-specific input-output relationships. We propose Functional-Level Uncertainty Quantification for Calibrated Fine-Tuning (UQ4CT), which calibrates uncertainty over the functional space induced by prompt-dependent mixtures of LoRA experts. UQ4CT implements this perspective through a mixture-of-experts fine-tuning framework, where a calibration loss aligns functional-level confidence with predictive correctness during training. Across four multiple-choice benchmarks and two open-ended generative QA tasks, UQ4CT reduces Expected Calibration Error (ECE) by over $25\%$ while preserving high accuracy. Under distribution shift, UQ4CT maintains superior calibration and competitive accuracy, demonstrating improved reliability and generalization for fine-tuned LLMs.

Sophia Sun, Robin Walters, Jinxi Li et al.

Learning multi-agent dynamics is a core AI problem with broad applications in robotics and autonomous driving. While most existing works focus on deterministic prediction, producing probabilistic forecasts to quantify uncertainty and assess risks is critical for downstream decision-making tasks such as motion planning and collision avoidance. Multi-agent dynamics often contains internal symmetry. By leveraging symmetry, specifically rotation equivariance, we can improve not only the prediction accuracy but also uncertainty calibration. We introduce Energy Score, a proper scoring rule, to evaluate probabilistic predictions. We propose a novel deep dynamics model, Probabilistic Equivariant Continuous COnvolution (PECCO) for probabilistic prediction of multi-agent trajectories. PECCO extends equivariant continuous convolution to model the joint velocity distribution of multiple agents. It uses dynamics integration to propagate the uncertainty from velocity to position. On both synthetic and real-world datasets, PECCO shows significant improvements in accuracy and calibration compared to non-equivariant baselines.

Alejandro Rodriguez Pascual, Ishan Mehta, Muhammad Khan et al.

Understanding player shooting profiles is an essential part of basketball analysis: knowing where certain opposing players like to shoot from can help coaches neutralize offensive gameplans from their opponents; understanding where their players are most comfortable can lead them to developing more effective offensive strategies. An automatic tool that can provide these performance profiles in a timely manner can become invaluable for coaches to maximize both the effectiveness of their game plan as well as the time dedicated to practice and other related activities. Additionally, basketball is dictated by many variables, such as playstyle and game dynamics, that can change the flow of the game and, by extension, player performance profiles. It is crucial that the performance profiles can reflect the diverse playstyles, as well as the fast-changing dynamics of the game. We present a tool that can visualize player performance profiles in a timely manner while taking into account factors such as play-style and game dynamics. Our approach generates interpretable heatmaps that allow us to identify and analyze how non-spatial factors, such as game dynamics or playstyle, affect player performance profiles.

Nima Dehmamy, Csaba Both, Jianzhi Long et al.

In mathematical optimization, second-order Newton's methods generally converge faster than first-order methods, but they require the inverse of the Hessian, hence are computationally expensive. However, we discover that on sparse graphs, graph neural networks (GNN) can implement an efficient Quasi-Newton method that can speed up optimization by a factor of 10-100x. Our method, neural reparametrization, modifies the optimization parameters as the output of a GNN to reshape the optimization landscape. Using a precomputed Hessian as the propagation rule, the GNN can effectively utilize the second-order information, reaching a similar effect as adaptive gradient methods. As our method solves optimization through architecture design, it can be used in conjunction with any optimizers such as Adam and RMSProp. We show the application of our method on scientifically relevant problems including heat diffusion, synchronization and persistent homology.

Jianke Yang, Ohm Venkatachalam, Mohammad Kianezhad et al.

Explaining observed phenomena through symbolic, interpretable formulas is a fundamental goal of science. Recently, large language models (LLMs) have emerged as promising tools for symbolic equation discovery, owing to their broad domain knowledge and strong reasoning capabilities. However, most existing LLM-based systems try to guess equations directly from data, without modeling the multi-step reasoning process that scientists often follow: first inferring physical properties such as symmetries, then using these as priors to restrict the space of candidate equations. We introduce KeplerAgent, an agentic framework that explicitly follows this scientific reasoning process. The agent coordinates physics-based tools to extract intermediate structure and uses these results to configure symbolic regression engines such as PySINDy and PySR, including their function libraries and structural constraints. Across a suite of physical equation benchmarks, KeplerAgent achieves substantially higher symbolic accuracy and greater robustness to noisy data than both LLM and traditional baselines.

Luca Zhou, Bo Zhao, Rose Yu et al.

Model merging combines knowledge from separately fine-tuned models, yet success factors remain poorly understood. While recent work treats mergeability as an intrinsic property, we show with an architecture-agnostic framework that it fundamentally depends on both the merging method and the partner tasks. Using linear optimization over a set of interpretable pairwise metrics (e.g., gradient L2 distance), we uncover properties correlating with post-merge performance across four merging methods. We find substantial variation in success drivers (46.7% metric overlap; 55.3% sign agreement), revealing method-specific "fingerprints". Crucially, however, subspace overlap and gradient alignment metrics consistently emerge as foundational, method-agnostic prerequisites for compatibility. These findings provide a diagnostic foundation for understanding mergeability and motivate future fine-tuning strategies that explicitly encourage these properties.

Kai Kim, Howard Tsai, Rajat Sen et al.

Current forecasting approaches are largely unimodal and ignore the rich textual data that often accompany the time series due to lack of well-curated multimodal benchmark dataset. In this work, we develop TimeText Corpus (TTC), a carefully curated, time-aligned text and time dataset for multimodal forecasting. Our dataset is composed of sequences of numbers and text aligned to timestamps, and includes data from two different domains: climate science and healthcare. Our data is a significant contribution to the rare selection of available multimodal datasets. We also propose the Hybrid Multi-Modal Forecaster (Hybrid-MMF), a multimodal LLM that jointly forecasts both text and time series data using shared embeddings. However, contrary to our expectations, our Hybrid-MMF model does not outperform existing baselines in our experiments. This negative result highlights the challenges inherent in multimodal forecasting. Our code and data are available at https://github.com/Rose-STL-Lab/Multimodal_ Forecasting.

Jared Levy, Aarti Lalwani, Elijah Wyckoff et al.

Back pain is a pervasive issue affecting a significant portion of the population, often worsened by certain movements of the lower back. Assessing these movements is important for helping clinicians prescribe appropriate physical therapy. However, it can be difficult to monitor patients' movements remotely outside the clinic. High-fidelity data from motion capture sensors can be used to classify different movements, but these sensors are costly and impractical for use in free-living environments. Motion Tape (MT), a new fabric-based wearable sensor, addresses these issues by being low cost and portable. Despite these advantages, novelty and variability in sensor stability make the MT dataset small scale and inherent to noise. In this work, we propose the Motion-Tape Augmentation Inference Model (MT-AIM), a deep learning classification pipeline trained on MT data. In order to address the challenges of limited sample size and noise present within the MT dataset, MT-AIM leverages conditional generative models to generate synthetic MT data of a desired movement, as well as predicting joint kinematics as additional features. This combination of synthetic data generation and feature augmentation enables MT-AIM to achieve state-of-the-art accuracy in classifying lower back movements, bridging the gap between physiological sensing and movement analysis.

Sumanth Varambally, Yi-An Ma, Rose Yu

Discovering causal relationships from time series data is significant in fields such as finance, climate science, and neuroscience. However, contemporary techniques rely on the simplifying assumption that data originates from the same causal model, while in practice, data is heterogeneous and can stem from different causal models. In this work, we relax this assumption and perform causal discovery from time series data originating from a mixture of causal models. We propose a general variational inference-based framework called MCD to infer the underlying causal models as well as the mixing probability of each sample. Our approach employs an end-to-end training process that maximizes an evidence-lower bound for the data likelihood. We present two variants: MCD-Linear for linear relationships and independent noise, and MCD-Nonlinear for nonlinear causal relationships and history-dependent noise. We demonstrate that our method surpasses state-of-the-art benchmarks in causal discovery tasks through extensive experimentation on synthetic and real-world datasets, particularly when the data emanates from diverse underlying causal graphs. Theoretically, we prove the identifiability of such a model under some mild assumptions.

Ruijia Niu, Dongxia Wu, Kai Kim et al.

Multi-fidelity surrogate modeling aims to learn an accurate surrogate at the highest fidelity level by combining data from multiple sources. Traditional methods relying on Gaussian processes can hardly scale to high-dimensional data. Deep learning approaches utilize neural network based encoders and decoders to improve scalability. These approaches share encoded representations across fidelities without including corresponding decoder parameters. This hinders inference performance, especially in out-of-distribution scenarios when the highest fidelity data has limited domain coverage. To address these limitations, we propose Multi-fidelity Residual Neural Processes (MFRNP), a novel multi-fidelity surrogate modeling framework. MFRNP explicitly models the residual between the aggregated output from lower fidelities and ground truth at the highest fidelity. The aggregation introduces decoders into the information sharing step and optimizes lower fidelity decoders to accurately capture both in-fidelity and cross-fidelity information. We show that MFRNP significantly outperforms state-of-the-art in learning partial differential equations and a real-world climate modeling task. Our code is published at: https://github.com/Rose-STL-Lab/MFRNP

Peter Eckmann, Jake Anderson, Michael K. Gilson et al.

Predicting the activities of compounds against protein-based or phenotypic assays using only a few known compounds and their activities is a common task in target-free drug discovery. Existing few-shot learning approaches are limited to predicting binary labels (active/inactive). However, in real-world drug discovery, degrees of compound activity are highly relevant. We study Few-Shot Compound Activity Prediction (FS-CAP) and design a novel neural architecture to meta-learn continuous compound activities across large bioactivity datasets. Our model aggregates encodings generated from the known compounds and their activities to capture assay information. We also introduce a separate encoder for the unknown compound. We show that FS-CAP surpasses traditional similarity-based techniques as well as other state of the art few-shot learning methods on a variety of target-free drug discovery settings and datasets.

Salva Rühling Cachay, Miika Aittala, Karsten Kreis et al.

Diffusion models are a powerful tool for probabilistic forecasting, yet most applications in high-dimensional chaotic systems predict future snapshots one-by-one. This common approach struggles to model complex temporal dependencies and fails to explicitly account for the progressive growth of uncertainty inherent to such systems. While rolling diffusion frameworks, which apply increasing noise to forecasts at longer lead times, have been proposed to address this, their integration with state-of-the-art, high-fidelity diffusion techniques remains a significant challenge. We tackle this problem by introducing Elucidated Rolling Diffusion Models (ERDM), the first framework to successfully unify a rolling forecast structure with the principled, performant design of Elucidated Diffusion Models (EDM). To do this, we adapt the core EDM components-its noise schedule, network preconditioning, and Heun sampler-to the rolling forecast setting. The success of this integration is driven by three key contributions: (i) a novel loss weighting scheme that focuses model capacity on the mid-range forecast horizons where determinism gives way to stochasticity; (ii) an efficient initialization strategy using a pre-trained EDM for the initial window; and (iii) a bespoke hybrid sequence architecture for robust spatiotemporal feature extraction under progressive denoising. On 2D Navier-Stokes simulations and ERA5 global weather forecasting at 1.5^\circ resolution, ERDM consistently outperforms key diffusion-based baselines, including conditional autoregressive EDM. ERDM offers a flexible and powerful general framework for tackling diffusion-based sequence generation problems where modeling escalating uncertainty is paramount. Code is available at: https://github.com/salvaRC/erdm

Veeramakali Vignesh Manivannan, Yasaman Jafari, Srikar Eranky et al.

The use of Large Language Models (LLMs) in climate science has recently gained significant attention. However, a critical issue remains: the lack of a comprehensive evaluation framework capable of assessing the quality and scientific validity of model outputs. To address this issue, we develop ClimaGen (Climate QA Generator), an adaptive learning framework that generates question-answer pairs from graduate textbooks with climate scientists in the loop. As a result, we present ClimaQA-Gold, an expert-annotated benchmark dataset alongside ClimaQA-Silver, a large-scale, comprehensive synthetic QA dataset for climate science. Finally, we develop evaluation strategies and compare different LLMs on our benchmarks. Our results offer novel insights into various approaches used to enhance knowledge of climate LLMs. The source code is publicly available at https://github.com/Rose-STL-Lab/genie-climaqa

Peter Eckmann, Dongxia Wu, Germano Heinzelmann et al.

Current generative models for drug discovery primarily use molecular docking as an oracle to guide the generation of active compounds. However, such models are often not useful in practice because even compounds with high docking scores do not consistently show real-world experimental activity. More accurate methods for activity prediction exist, such as molecular dynamics based binding free energy calculations, but they are too computationally expensive to use in a generative model. To address this challenge, we propose Multi-Fidelity Latent space Active Learning (MF-LAL), a generative modeling framework that integrates a set of oracles with varying cost-accuracy tradeoffs. Using active learning, we train a surrogate model for each oracle and use these surrogates to guide generation of compounds with high predicted activity. Unlike previous approaches that separately learn the surrogate model and generative model, MF-LAL combines the generative and multi-fidelity surrogate models into a single framework, allowing for more accurate activity prediction and higher quality samples. Our experiments on two disease-relevant proteins show that MF-LAL produces compounds with significantly better binding free energy scores than other single and multi-fidelity approaches (~50% improvement in mean binding free energy score). The code is available at https://github.com/Rose-STL-Lab/MF-LAL.

Zihao Zhou, Xingyi Yang, Ryan Rossi et al.

Learning the dynamics of spatiotemporal events is a fundamental problem. Neural point processes enhance the expressivity of point process models with deep neural networks. However, most existing methods only consider temporal dynamics without spatial modeling. We propose Deep Spatiotemporal Point Process (\ours{}), a deep dynamics model that integrates spatiotemporal point processes. Our method is flexible, efficient, and can accurately forecast irregularly sampled events over space and time. The key construction of our approach is the nonparametric space-time intensity function, governed by a latent process. The intensity function enjoys closed form integration for the density. The latent process captures the uncertainty of the event sequence. We use amortized variational inference to infer the latent process with deep networks. Using synthetic datasets, we validate our model can accurately learn the true intensity function. On real-world benchmark datasets, our model demonstrates superior performance over state-of-the-art baselines. Our code and data can be found at the https://github.com/Rose-STL-Lab/DeepSTPP.

Steven Wong, Lejun Jiang, Robin Walters et al.

We take the first step in using vehicle-to-vehicle (V2V) communication to provide real-time on-board traffic predictions. In order to best utilize real-world V2V communication data, we integrate first principle models with deep learning. Specifically, we train recurrent neural networks to improve the predictions given by first principle models. Our approach is able to predict the velocity of individual vehicles up to a minute into the future with improved accuracy over first principle-based baselines. We conduct a comprehensive study to evaluate different methods of integrating first principle models with deep learning techniques. The source code for our models is available at https://github.com/Rose-STL-Lab/V2V-traffic-forecast .

Fan Xie, Alexander Chowdhury, M. Clara De Paolis Kaluza et al.

We present a deep imitation learning framework for robotic bimanual manipulation in a continuous state-action space. A core challenge is to generalize the manipulation skills to objects in different locations. We hypothesize that modeling the relational information in the environment can significantly improve generalization. To achieve this, we propose to (i) decompose the multi-modal dynamics into elemental movement primitives, (ii) parameterize each primitive using a recurrent graph neural network to capture interactions, and (iii) integrate a high-level planner that composes primitives sequentially and a low-level controller to combine primitive dynamics and inverse kinematics control. Our model is a deep, hierarchical, modular architecture. Compared to baselines, our model generalizes better and achieves higher success rates on several simulated bimanual robotic manipulation tasks. We open source the code for simulation, data, and models at: https://github.com/Rose-STL-Lab/HDR-IL.

Armand Comas-Massagué, Chi Zhang, Zlatan Feric et al.

Missing data poses significant challenges while learning representations of video sequences. We present Disentangled Imputed Video autoEncoder (DIVE), a deep generative model that imputes and predicts future video frames in the presence of missing data. Specifically, DIVE introduces a missingness latent variable, disentangles the hidden video representations into static and dynamic appearance, pose, and missingness factors for each object. DIVE imputes each object's trajectory where data is missing. On a moving MNIST dataset with various missing scenarios, DIVE outperforms the state of the art baselines by a substantial margin. We also present comparisons for real-world MOTSChallenge pedestrian dataset, which demonstrates the practical value of our method in a more realistic setting. Our code and data can be found at https://github.com/Rose-STL-Lab/DIVE.

Rui Wang, Robin Walters, Rose Yu

Recent work has shown deep learning can accelerate the prediction of physical dynamics relative to numerical solvers. However, limited physical accuracy and an inability to generalize under distributional shift limit its applicability to the real world. We propose to improve accuracy and generalization by incorporating symmetries into convolutional neural networks. Specifically, we employ a variety of methods each tailored to enforce a different symmetry. Our models are both theoretically and experimentally robust to distributional shift by symmetry group transformations and enjoy favorable sample complexity. We demonstrate the advantage of our approach on a variety of physical dynamics including Rayleigh Bénard convection and real-world ocean currents and temperatures. Compared with image or text applications, our work is a significant step towards applying equivariant neural networks to high-dimensional systems with complex dynamics. We open-source our simulation, data, and code at \url{https://github.com/Rose-STL-Lab/Equivariant-Net}.

Aysin Tumay, Sophia Sun, Sonia Fereidooni et al.

We study the sequential decision-making problem for automated weaning of mechanical circulatory support (MCS) devices in cardiogenic shock patients. MCS devices are percutaneous micro-axial flow pumps that provide left ventricular unloading and forward blood flow, but current weaning strategies vary significantly across care teams and lack data-driven approaches. Offline reinforcement learning (RL) has proven to be successful in sequential decision-making tasks, but our setting presents challenges for training and evaluating traditional offline RL methods: prohibition of online patient interaction, highly uncertain circulatory dynamics due to concurrent treatments, and limited data availability. We developed an end-to-end machine learning framework with two key contributions (1) Clinically-aware OOD-regularized Model-based Policy Optimization (CORMPO), a density-regularized offline RL algorithm for out-of-distribution suppression that also incorporates clinically-informed reward shaping and (2) a Transformer-based probabilistic digital twin that models MCS circulatory dynamics for policy evaluation with rich physiological and clinical metrics. We prove that \textsf{CORMPO} achieves theoretical performance guarantees under mild assumptions. CORMPO attains a higher reward than the offline RL baselines by 28% and higher scores in clinical metrics by 82.6% on real and synthetic datasets. Our approach offers a principled framework for safe offline policy learning in high-stakes medical applications where domain expertise and safety constraints are essential.

Pratham Yashwante, Rose Yu

The Platonic Representation Hypothesis posits that learned representations from models trained on different modalities converge to a shared latent structure of the world. However, this hypothesis has largely been examined in vision and language, and it remains unclear whether time series participate in such convergence. We first examine this in a trimodal setting and find that independently pretrained time series, vision, and language encoders exhibit near-orthogonal geometry in the absence of explicit coupling. We then apply post-hoc alignment by training projection heads over frozen encoders using contrastive learning, and analyze the resulting representations with respect to geometry, scaling behavior, and dependence on information density and input modality characteristics. Our investigation reveals that overall alignment in contrastive representation spaces improves with model size, but this alignment is asymmetric: time series align more strongly with visual representations than with text, and images can act as effective intermediaries between time series and language. We further see that richer textual descriptions improve alignment only up to a threshold; training on denser captions does not lead to further improvement. Analogous effects are observed for visual representations. Our findings shed light on considerations for building multimodal systems involving non-conventional data modalities beyond vision and language.

Yasaman Jafari, Dheeraj Mekala, Rose Yu et al.

RL-based techniques can be employed to search for prompts that, when fed into a target language model, maximize a set of user-specified reward functions. However, in many target applications, the natural reward functions are in tension with one another -- for example, content preservation vs. style matching in style transfer tasks. Current techniques focus on maximizing the average of reward functions, which does not necessarily lead to prompts that achieve balance across rewards -- an issue that has been well-studied in the multi-objective and robust optimization literature. In this paper, we conduct an empirical comparison of several existing multi-objective optimization techniques adapted to this new setting: RL-based discrete prompt optimization. We compare two methods optimizing the volume of the Pareto reward surface and one method that chooses an update direction that benefits all rewards simultaneously. We evaluate performance on two NLP tasks: style transfer and machine translation, each using three competing reward functions. Our experiments demonstrate that multi-objective methods that directly optimize the volume of the Pareto reward surface perform better and achieve a better balance of all rewards than those that attempt to find monotonic update directions.

Bo Zhao, Nima Dehmamy, Robin Walters et al.

Neural network minima are often connected by curves along which train and test loss remain nearly constant, a phenomenon known as mode connectivity. While this property has enabled applications such as model merging and fine-tuning, its theoretical explanation remains unclear. We propose a new approach to exploring the connectedness of minima using parameter space symmetry. By linking the topology of symmetry groups to that of the minima, we derive the number of connected components of the minima of linear networks and show that skip connections reduce this number. We then examine when mode connectivity and linear mode connectivity hold or fail, using parameter symmetries which account for a significant part of the minimum. Finally, we provide explicit expressions for connecting curves in the minima induced by symmetry. Using the curvature of these curves, we derive conditions under which linear mode connectivity approximately holds. Our findings highlight the role of continuous symmetries in understanding the neural network loss landscape.

Cai Zhou, Rose Yu, Yusu Wang · mit

Graph transformers have recently received significant attention in graph learning, partly due to their ability to capture more global interaction via self-attention. Nevertheless, while higher-order graph neural networks have been reasonably well studied, the exploration of extending graph transformers to higher-order variants is just starting. Both theoretical understanding and empirical results are limited. In this paper, we provide a systematic study of the theoretical expressive power of order-$k$ graph transformers and sparse variants. We first show that, an order-$k$ graph transformer without additional structural information is less expressive than the $k$-Weisfeiler Lehman ($k$-WL) test despite its high computational cost. We then explore strategies to both sparsify and enhance the higher-order graph transformers, aiming to improve both their efficiency and expressiveness. Indeed, sparsification based on neighborhood information can enhance the expressive power, as it provides additional information about input graph structures. In particular, we show that a natural neighborhood-based sparse order-$k$ transformer model is not only computationally efficient, but also expressive -- as expressive as $k$-WL test. We further study several other sparse graph attention models that are computationally efficient and provide their expressiveness analysis. Finally, we provide experimental results to show the effectiveness of the different sparsification strategies.

Dongxia Wu, Tsuyoshi Idé, Aurélie Lozano et al.

We address the problem of learning Granger causality from asynchronous, interdependent, multi-type event sequences. In particular, we are interested in discovering instance-level causal structures in an unsupervised manner. Instance-level causality identifies causal relationships among individual events, providing more fine-grained information for decision-making. Existing work in the literature either requires strong assumptions, such as linearity in the intensity function, or heuristically defined model parameters that do not necessarily meet the requirements of Granger causality. We propose Instance-wise Self-Attentive Hawkes Processes (ISAHP), a novel deep learning framework that can directly infer the Granger causality at the event instance level. ISAHP is the first neural point process model that meets the requirements of Granger causality. It leverages the self-attention mechanism of the transformer to align with the principles of Granger causality. We empirically demonstrate that ISAHP is capable of discovering complex instance-level causal structures that cannot be handled by classical models. We also show that ISAHP achieves state-of-the-art performance in proxy tasks involving type-level causal discovery and instance-level event type prediction.

Bo Zhao, Robin Walters, Rose Yu

Modern deep learning models are highly overparameterized, resulting in large sets of parameter configurations that yield the same outputs. A significant portion of this redundancy is explained by symmetries in the parameter space--transformations that leave the network function unchanged. These symmetries shape the loss landscape and constrain learning dynamics, offering a new lens for understanding optimization, generalization, and model complexity that complements existing theory of deep learning. This survey provides an overview of parameter space symmetry. We summarize existing literature, uncover connections between symmetry and learning theory, and identify gaps and opportunities in this emerging field.

Peter Eckmann, Dongxia Wu, Germano Heinzelmann et al.

Current generative models for drug discovery primarily use molecular docking to evaluate the quality of generated compounds. However, such models are often not useful in practice because even compounds with high docking scores do not consistently show experimental activity. More accurate methods for activity prediction exist, such as molecular dynamics based binding free energy calculations, but they are too computationally expensive to use in a generative model. We propose a multi-fidelity approach, Multi-Fidelity Bind (MFBind), to achieve the optimal trade-off between accuracy and computational cost. MFBind integrates docking and binding free energy simulators to train a multi-fidelity deep surrogate model with active learning. Our deep surrogate model utilizes a pretraining technique and linear prediction heads to efficiently fit small amounts of high-fidelity data. We perform extensive experiments and show that MFBind (1) outperforms other state-of-the-art single and multi-fidelity baselines in surrogate modeling, and (2) boosts the performance of generative models with markedly higher quality compounds.

Guy Zamir, Aryan Dokania, Bo Zhao et al.

We analyze a learning-to-optimize (L2O) algorithm that exploits parameter space symmetry to enhance optimization efficiency. Prior work has shown that jointly learning symmetry transformations and local updates improves meta-optimizer performance. Supporting this, our theoretical analysis demonstrates that even without identifying the optimal group element, the method locally resembles Newton's method. We further provide an example where the algorithm provably learns the correct symmetry transformation during training. To empirically evaluate L2O with teleportation, we introduce a benchmark, analyze its success and failure cases, and show that enhancements like momentum further improve performance. Our results highlight the potential of leveraging neural network parameter space symmetry to advance meta-optimization.

Tao Wang, Bo Zhao, Sicun Gao et al.

Physics-Informed Neural Networks (PINNs) have gained popularity in scientific computing in recent years. However, they often fail to achieve the same level of accuracy as classical methods in solving differential equations. In this paper, we identify two sources of this issue in the case of Cauchy problems: the use of $L^2$ residuals as objective functions and the approximation gap of neural networks. We show that minimizing the sum of $L^2$ residual and initial condition error is not sufficient to guarantee the true solution, as this loss function does not capture the underlying dynamics. Additionally, neural networks are not capable of capturing singularities in the solutions due to the non-compactness of their image sets. This, in turn, influences the existence of global minima and the regularity of the network. We demonstrate that when the global minimum does not exist, machine precision becomes the predominant source of achievable error in practice. We also present numerical experiments in support of our theoretical claims.

Esha Singh, Dongxia Wu, Chien-Yi Yang et al.

Multi-objective combinatorial optimization seeks Pareto-optimal solutions over exponentially large discrete spaces, yet existing methods sacrifice generality, scalability, or theoretical guarantees. We reformulate it as an online learning problem over a decomposed decision space, solving position-wise bandit subproblems via adaptive expert-guided sequential construction. This formulation admits regret bounds of $O(d\sqrt{T \log T})$ depending on subproblem dimensionality \(d\) rather than combinatorial space size. On standard benchmarks, our method achieves 80--98\% of specialized solvers performance while achieving two to three orders of magnitude improvement in sample and computational efficiency over Bayesian optimization methods. On real-world hardware-software co-design for AI accelerators with expensive simulations, we outperform competing methods under fixed evaluation budgets. The advantage grows with problem scale and objective count, establishing bandit optimization over decomposed decision spaces as a principled alternative to surrogate modeling or offline training for multi-objective optimization.

Luca Zhou, Pratham Yashwante, Marshall Fisher et al.

Time series captioning, the task of describing numeric time series in natural language, requires numerical reasoning, trend interpretation, and contextual understanding. Existing benchmarks, however, often rely on synthetic data or overly simplistic captions, and typically neglect metadata and visual representations. To close this gap, we introduce CaTS-Bench, the first large-scale, real-world benchmark for Context-aware Time Series captioning. CaTS-Bench is derived from 11 diverse datasets reframed as captioning and Q&A tasks, comprising roughly 465k training and 105k test timestamps. Each sample includes a numeric series segment, contextual metadata, a line-chart image, and a caption. A key contribution of this work is the scalable pipeline used to generate reference captions: while most references are produced by an oracle LLM and verified through factual checks, human indistinguishability studies, and diversity analyses, we also provide a human-revisited subset of 579 test captions, refined from LLM outputs to ensure accuracy and human-like style. Beyond captioning, CaTS-Bench offers 460 multiple-choice questions targeting deeper aspects of time series reasoning. We further propose new tailored evaluation metrics and benchmark leading VLMs, highlighting both their strengths and persistent limitations. Together, these contributions establish CaTS-Bench and its captioning pipeline as a reliable and extensible foundation for future research at the intersection of time series analysis and foundation models.

Yadi Cao, Futian Zhang, Wesley Liu et al.

The Trapped Gyro-Landau Fluid (TGLF) model provides fast, accurate predictions of turbulent transport in tokamaks, but whole device simulations requiring thousands of evaluations remain computationally expensive. Neural network (NN) surrogates offer accelerated inference with fully differentiable approximations that enable gradient-based coupling but typically require large training datasets to capture transport flux variations across plasma conditions, creating significant training burden and limiting applicability to expensive gyrokinetic simulations. We propose \textbf{TGLF-SINN (Spectra-Informed Neural Network)} with three key innovations: (1) principled feature engineering that reduces target prediction range, simplifying the learning task; (2) physics-guided regularization of transport spectra to improve generalization under sparse data; and (3) Bayesian Active Learning (BAL) to strategically select training samples based on model uncertainty, reducing data requirements while maintaining accuracy. Our approach achieves superior performance with significantly less training data. In offline settings, TGLF-SINN reduces logarithmic root mean squared error (LRMSE) by 12. 4\% compared to the current baseline \base. Using only 25\% of the complete dataset with BAL, we achieve LRMSE only 0.0165 higher than \base~and 0.0248 higher than our offline model (0.0583). In downstream flux matching applications, our NN surrogate provides 45x speedup over TGLF while maintaining comparable accuracy, demonstrating potential for training efficient surrogates for higher-fidelity models where data acquisition is costly and sparse.