Sercan O. Arik

Si-An Chen, Chun-Liang Li, Nate Yoder et al.

Real-world time-series datasets are often multivariate with complex dynamics. To capture this complexity, high capacity architectures like recurrent- or attention-based sequential deep learning models have become popular. However, recent work demonstrates that simple univariate linear models can outperform such deep learning models on several commonly used academic benchmarks. Extending them, in this paper, we investigate the capabilities of linear models for time-series forecasting and present Time-Series Mixer (TSMixer), a novel architecture designed by stacking multi-layer perceptrons (MLPs). TSMixer is based on mixing operations along both the time and feature dimensions to extract information efficiently. On popular academic benchmarks, the simple-to-implement TSMixer is comparable to specialized state-of-the-art models that leverage the inductive biases of specific benchmarks. On the challenging and large scale M5 benchmark, a real-world retail dataset, TSMixer demonstrates superior performance compared to the state-of-the-art alternatives. Our results underline the importance of efficiently utilizing cross-variate and auxiliary information for improving the performance of time series forecasting. We present various analyses to shed light into the capabilities of TSMixer. The design paradigms utilized in TSMixer are expected to open new horizons for deep learning-based time series forecasting. The implementation is available at https://github.com/google-research/google-research/tree/master/tsmixer

Nicasia Beebe-Wang, Sayna Ebrahimi, Jinsung Yoon et al.

Real-world time series data that commonly reflect sequential human behavior are often uniquely irregularly sampled and sparse, with highly nonuniform sampling over time and entities. Yet, commonly-used pretraining and augmentation methods for time series are not specifically designed for such scenarios. In this paper, we present PAITS (Pretraining and Augmentation for Irregularly-sampled Time Series), a framework for identifying suitable pretraining strategies for sparse and irregularly sampled time series datasets. PAITS leverages a novel combination of NLP-inspired pretraining tasks and augmentations, and a random search to identify an effective strategy for a given dataset. We demonstrate that different datasets benefit from different pretraining choices. Compared with prior methods, our approach is better able to consistently improve pretraining across multiple datasets and domains. Our code is available at \url{https://github.com/google-research/google-research/tree/master/irregular_timeseries_pretraining}.

Hongjin Su, Howard Yen, Mengzhou Xia et al.

Existing retrieval benchmarks primarily consist of information-seeking queries (e.g., aggregated questions from search engines) where keyword or semantic-based retrieval is usually sufficient. However, many complex real-world queries require in-depth reasoning to identify relevant documents that go beyond surface form matching. For example, finding documentation for a coding question requires understanding the logic and syntax of the functions involved. To better benchmark retrieval on such challenging queries, we introduce BRIGHT, the first text retrieval benchmark that requires intensive reasoning to retrieve relevant documents. Our dataset consists of 1,384 real-world queries spanning diverse domains, such as economics, psychology, mathematics, and coding. These queries are drawn from naturally occurring and carefully curated human data. Extensive evaluation reveals that even state-of-the-art retrieval models perform poorly on BRIGHT. The leading model on the MTEB leaderboard (Muennighoff et al., 2023) SFR-Embedding-Mistral (Meng et al., 2024), which achieves a score of 59.0 nDCG@10,1 produces a score of nDCG@10 of 18.3 on BRIGHT. We show that incorporating explicit reasoning about the query improves retrieval performance by up to 12.2 points. Moreover, incorporating retrieved documents from the top-performing retriever boosts question-answering performance. We believe that BRIGHT paves the way for future research on retrieval systems in more realistic and challenging settings.

Jiani Zhang, Sercan O. Arik, Cosmin Arad et al.

As LLM-driven autonomous agents evolve to perform complex, multi-step tasks that require integrating multiple datasets, the problem of discovering relevant data sources becomes a key bottleneck. Beyond the challenge posed by the sheer volume of available data sources, data-source selection is difficult because the semantics of data are extremely nuanced and require considering many aspects of the data. To address this, we introduce the Metadata Reasoner, an agentic approach to metadata reasoning, designed to identify a small set of data sources that are both sufficient and minimal for a given analytical task. The Metadata Reasoner leverages a table-search engine to retrieve candidate tables, and then autonomously consults various aspects of the available metadata to determine whether the candidates fit the requirements of the task. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the Metadata Reasoner through a series of empirical studies. Evaluated on the real-world KramaBench datasets for data selection, our approach achieves an average F1-score of 83.16%, outperforming state-of-the-art baselines by a substantial margin of 32 percentage points. Furthermore, evaluations on a newly-created synthetic benchmark based on the BIRD data lake reveal that the Metadata Reasoner is highly robust against redundant and low-quality tables that may be in the data lake. In this noisy environment, it maintains an average of 85.5% F1-score for selecting the right datasets and demonstrates a 99% success rate in avoiding low-quality data.

Jinsung Yoon, Kihyuk Sohn, Chun-Liang Li et al.

Semi-supervised anomaly detection is a common problem, as often the datasets containing anomalies are partially labeled. We propose a canonical framework: Semi-supervised Pseudo-labeler Anomaly Detection with Ensembling (SPADE) that isn't limited by the assumption that labeled and unlabeled data come from the same distribution. Indeed, the assumption is often violated in many applications - for example, the labeled data may contain only anomalies unlike unlabeled data, or unlabeled data may contain different types of anomalies, or labeled data may contain only 'easy-to-label' samples. SPADE utilizes an ensemble of one class classifiers as the pseudo-labeler to improve the robustness of pseudo-labeling with distribution mismatch. Partial matching is proposed to automatically select the critical hyper-parameters for pseudo-labeling without validation data, which is crucial with limited labeled data. SPADE shows state-of-the-art semi-supervised anomaly detection performance across a wide range of scenarios with distribution mismatch in both tabular and image domains. In some common real-world settings such as model facing new types of unlabeled anomalies, SPADE outperforms the state-of-the-art alternatives by 5% AUC in average.

Mohammadreza Pourreza, Ruoxi Sun, Hailong Li et al.

Recent advances in Text-to-SQL have largely focused on the SQLite dialect, neglecting the diverse landscape of SQL dialects like BigQuery and PostgreSQL. This limitation is due to the diversity in SQL syntaxes and functions, along with the high cost of collecting and curating SQL-specific training data. To address this, we introduce SQL-GEN, a framework for generating high-quality synthetic training data for any SQL dialect, guided by readily available dialect-specific tutorials. SQL-GEN significantly improves cross-dialect Text-to-SQL performance, boosting execution accuracy by up to 20\% over existing methods. This performance gain narrows the gap with models trained on large-scale human-annotated data. Furthermore, combining synthetic data from SQL-GEN with human-annotated data yields additional improvements of up to 5.6\%. To unify multi-dialect capabilities within a single model, we propose a novel Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) initialization that leverages the shared knowledge across dialects. Our approach merges self-attention layers from dialect-specific models and initializes expert gates using dialect-specific keywords. This leads to a versatile model optimized for multiple SQL dialects, outperforming single-dialect models and significantly enhancing overall performance.

Zachary Izzo, Jinsung Yoon, Sercan O. Arik et al.

In applications involving sensitive data, such as finance and healthcare, the necessity for preserving data privacy can be a significant barrier to machine learning model development. Differential privacy (DP) has emerged as one canonical standard for provable privacy. However, DP's strong theoretical guarantees often come at the cost of a large drop in its utility for machine learning, and DP guarantees themselves can be difficult to interpret. In this work, we propose a novel privacy notion, membership inference privacy (MIP), to address these challenges. We give a precise characterization of the relationship between MIP and DP, and show that MIP can be achieved using less amount of randomness compared to the amount required for guaranteeing DP, leading to a smaller drop in utility. MIP guarantees are also easily interpretable in terms of the success rate of membership inference attacks. Our theoretical results also give rise to a simple algorithm for guaranteeing MIP which can be used as a wrapper around any algorithm with a continuous output, including parametric model training.

Sayna Ebrahimi, Sercan O. Arik, Tomas Pfister

For visual document understanding (VDU), self-supervised pretraining has been shown to successfully generate transferable representations, yet, effective adaptation of such representations to distribution shifts at test-time remains to be an unexplored area. We propose DocTTA, a novel test-time adaptation method for documents, that does source-free domain adaptation using unlabeled target document data. DocTTA leverages cross-modality self-supervised learning via masked visual language modeling, as well as pseudo labeling to adapt models learned on a \textit{source} domain to an unlabeled \textit{target} domain at test time. We introduce new benchmarks using existing public datasets for various VDU tasks, including entity recognition, key-value extraction, and document visual question answering. DocTTA shows significant improvements on these compared to the source model performance, up to 1.89\% in (F1 score), 3.43\% (F1 score), and 17.68\% (ANLS score), respectively. Our benchmark datasets are available at \url{https://saynaebrahimi.github.io/DocTTA.html}.

Ruoxi Sun, Chun-Liang Li, Sercan O. Arik et al.

Accurate estimation of output quantiles is crucial in many use cases, where it is desired to model the range of possibility. Modeling target distribution at arbitrary quantile levels and at arbitrary input attribute levels are important to offer a comprehensive picture of the data, and requires the quantile function to be expressive enough. The quantile function describing the target distribution using quantile levels is critical for quantile regression. Although various parametric forms for the distributions (that the quantile function specifies) can be adopted, an everlasting problem is selecting the most appropriate one that can properly approximate the data distributions. In this paper, we propose a non-parametric and data-driven approach, Neural Spline Search (NSS), to represent the observed data distribution without parametric assumptions. NSS is flexible and expressive for modeling data distributions by transforming the inputs with a series of monotonic spline regressions guided by symbolic operators. We demonstrate that NSS outperforms previous methods on synthetic, real-world regression and time-series forecasting tasks.

Sayna Ebrahimi, Sercan O. Arik, Tejas Nama et al.

Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs) demonstrate remarkable image-language capabilities, but their widespread use faces challenges in cost-effective training and adaptation. Existing approaches often necessitate expensive language model retraining and limited adaptability. Additionally, the current focus on zero-shot performance improvements offers insufficient guidance for task-specific tuning. We propose CROME, an efficient vision-language instruction tuning framework. It features a novel gated cross-modal adapter that effectively combines visual and textual representations prior to input into a frozen LLM. This lightweight adapter, trained with minimal parameters, enables efficient cross-modal understanding. Notably, CROME demonstrates superior zero-shot performance on standard visual question answering and instruction-following benchmarks. Moreover, it yields fine-tuning with exceptional parameter efficiency, competing with task-specific specialist state-of-the-art methods. CROME demonstrates the potential of pre-LM alignment for building scalable, adaptable, and parameter-efficient multimodal models.

Helen Zhou, Sercan O. Arik, Jingtao Wang

Time-series forecasts play a critical role in business planning. However, forecasters typically optimize objectives that are agnostic to downstream business goals and thus can produce forecasts misaligned with business preferences. In this work, we demonstrate that optimization of conventional forecasting metrics can often lead to sub-optimal downstream business performance. Focusing on the inventory management setting, we derive an efficient procedure for computing and optimizing proxies of common downstream business metrics in an end-to-end differentiable manner. We explore a wide range of plausible cost trade-off scenarios, and empirically demonstrate that end-to-end optimization often outperforms optimization of standard business-agnostic forecasting metrics (by up to 45.7% for a simple scaling model, and up to 54.0% for an LSTM encoder-decoder model). Finally, we discuss how our findings could benefit other business contexts.

Yihe Dong, Sercan O. Arik

Feature selection has been widely used to alleviate compute requirements during training, elucidate model interpretability, and improve model generalizability. We propose SLM -- Sparse Learnable Masks -- a canonical approach for end-to-end feature selection that scales well with respect to both the feature dimension and the number of samples. At the heart of SLM lies a simple but effective learnable sparse mask, which learns which features to select, and gives rise to a novel objective that provably maximizes the mutual information (MI) between the selected features and the labels, which can be derived from a quadratic relaxation of mutual information from first principles. In addition, we derive a scaling mechanism that allows SLM to precisely control the number of features selected, through a novel use of sparsemax. This allows for more effective learning as demonstrated in ablation studies. Empirically, SLM achieves state-of-the-art results against a variety of competitive baselines on eight benchmark datasets, often by a significant margin, especially on those with real-world challenges such as class imbalance.

Bowen Jin, Jinsung Yoon, Priyanka Kargupta et al.

Reinforcement learning (RL) has demonstrated strong potential in training large language models (LLMs) capable of complex reasoning for real-world problem solving. More recently, RL has been leveraged to create sophisticated LLM-based search agents that adeptly combine reasoning with search engine use. While the use of RL for training search agents is promising, the optimal design of such agents remains not fully understood. In particular, key factors -- such as (1) reward formulation, (2) the choice and characteristics of the underlying LLM, and (3) the role of the search engine in the RL process -- require further investigation. In this work, we conduct comprehensive empirical studies to systematically investigate these and offer actionable insights. We highlight several key findings: format rewards are effective in improving final performance, whereas intermediate retrieval rewards have limited impact; the scale and initialization of the LLM (general-purpose vs. reasoning-specialized) significantly influence RL outcomes; and the choice of search engine plays a critical role in shaping RL training dynamics and the robustness of the trained agent during inference. These establish important guidelines for successfully building and deploying LLM-based search agents in real-world applications. Code is available at https://github.com/PeterGriffinJin/Search-R1.

Sayna Ebrahimi, Sercan O. Arik, Yihe Dong et al.

Multimodal large-scale pretraining has shown impressive performance for unstructured data such as language and image. However, a prevalent real-world scenario involves structured data types, tabular and time-series, along with unstructured data. Such scenarios have been understudied. To bridge this gap, we propose LANISTR, an attention-based framework to learn from LANguage, Image, and STRuctured data. The core of LANISTR's methodology is rooted in \textit{masking-based} training applied across both unimodal and multimodal levels. In particular, we introduce a new similarity-based multimodal masking loss that enables it to learn cross-modal relations from large-scale multimodal data with missing modalities. On two real-world datasets, MIMIC-IV (from healthcare) and Amazon Product Review (from retail), LANISTR demonstrates remarkable improvements, 6.6\% (in AUROC) and 14\% (in accuracy) when fine-tuned with 0.1\% and 0.01\% of labeled data, respectively, compared to the state-of-the-art alternatives. Notably, these improvements are observed even with very high ratio of samples (35.7\% and 99.8\% respectively) not containing all modalities, underlining the robustness of LANISTR to practical missing modality challenge. Our code and models will be available at https://github.com/google-research/lanistr

Zizhao Zhang, Han Zhang, Long Zhao et al.

Hierarchical structures are popular in recent vision transformers, however, they require sophisticated designs and massive datasets to work well. In this paper, we explore the idea of nesting basic local transformers on non-overlapping image blocks and aggregating them in a hierarchical way. We find that the block aggregation function plays a critical role in enabling cross-block non-local information communication. This observation leads us to design a simplified architecture that requires minor code changes upon the original vision transformer. The benefits of the proposed judiciously-selected design are threefold: (1) NesT converges faster and requires much less training data to achieve good generalization on both ImageNet and small datasets like CIFAR; (2) when extending our key ideas to image generation, NesT leads to a strong decoder that is 8$\times$ faster than previous transformer-based generators; and (3) we show that decoupling the feature learning and abstraction processes via this nested hierarchy in our design enables constructing a novel method (named GradCAT) for visually interpreting the learned model. Source code is available https://github.com/google-research/nested-transformer.

Chih-Kuan Yeh, Been Kim, Sercan O. Arik et al.

Human explanations of high-level decisions are often expressed in terms of key concepts the decisions are based on. In this paper, we study such concept-based explainability for Deep Neural Networks (DNNs). First, we define the notion of completeness, which quantifies how sufficient a particular set of concepts is in explaining a model's prediction behavior based on the assumption that complete concept scores are sufficient statistics of the model prediction. Next, we propose a concept discovery method that aims to infer a complete set of concepts that are additionally encouraged to be interpretable, which addresses the limitations of existing methods on concept explanations. To define an importance score for each discovered concept, we adapt game-theoretic notions to aggregate over sets and propose ConceptSHAP. Via proposed metrics and user studies, on a synthetic dataset with apriori-known concept explanations, as well as on real-world image and language datasets, we validate the effectiveness of our method in finding concepts that are both complete in explaining the decisions and interpretable. (The code is released at https://github.com/chihkuanyeh/concept_exp)

Zizhao Zhang, Han Zhang, Sercan O. Arik et al.

Collecting large-scale data with clean labels for supervised training of neural networks is practically challenging. Although noisy labels are usually cheap to acquire, existing methods suffer a lot from label noise. This paper targets at the challenge of robust training at high label noise regimes. The key insight to achieve this goal is to wisely leverage a small trusted set to estimate exemplar weights and pseudo labels for noisy data in order to reuse them for supervised training. We present a holistic framework to train deep neural networks in a way that is highly invulnerable to label noise. Our method sets the new state of the art on various types of label noise and achieves excellent performance on large-scale datasets with real-world label noise. For instance, on CIFAR100 with a $40\%$ uniform noise ratio and only 10 trusted labeled data per class, our method achieves $80.2{\pm}0.3\%$ classification accuracy, where the error rate is only $1.4\%$ higher than a neural network trained without label noise. Moreover, increasing the noise ratio to $80\%$, our method still maintains a high accuracy of $75.5{\pm}0.2\%$, compared to the previous best accuracy $48.2\%$. Source code available: https://github.com/google-research/google-research/tree/master/ieg

Bowen Jin, Jinsung Yoon, Zhen Qin et al.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have revolutionized artificial intelligence with capabilities in reasoning, coding, and communication, driving innovation across industries. Their true potential depends on effective alignment to ensure correct, trustworthy and ethical behavior, addressing challenges like misinformation, hallucinations, bias and misuse. While existing Reinforcement Learning (RL)-based alignment methods are notoriously complex, direct optimization approaches offer a simpler alternative. In this work, we introduce a novel direct optimization approach for LLM alignment by drawing on established Information Retrieval (IR) principles. We present a systematic framework that bridges LLM alignment and IR methodologies, mapping LLM generation and reward models to IR's retriever-reranker paradigm. Building on this foundation, we propose LLM Alignment as Retriever Preference Optimization (LarPO), a new alignment method that enhances overall alignment quality. Extensive experiments validate LarPO's effectiveness with 38.9 % and 13.7 % averaged improvement on AlpacaEval2 and MixEval-Hard respectively. Our work opens new avenues for advancing LLM alignment by integrating IR foundations, offering a promising direction for future research.

Xingchen Wan, Ruoxi Sun, Hootan Nakhost et al.

Large language models have demonstrated remarkable capabilities, but their performance is heavily reliant on effective prompt engineering. Automatic prompt optimization (APO) methods are designed to automate this and can be broadly categorized into those targeting instructions (instruction optimization, IO) vs. those targeting exemplars (exemplar optimization, EO). Despite their shared objective, these have evolved rather independently, with IO receiving more research attention recently. This paper seeks to bridge this gap by comprehensively comparing the performance of representative IO and EO techniques both isolation and combination on a diverse set of challenging tasks. Our findings reveal that intelligently reusing model-generated input-output pairs obtained from evaluating prompts on the validation set as exemplars, consistently improves performance on top of IO methods but is currently under-investigated. We also find that despite the recent focus on IO, how we select exemplars can outweigh how we optimize instructions, with EO strategies as simple as random search outperforming state-of-the-art IO methods with seed instructions without any optimization. Moreover, we observe a synergy between EO and IO, with optimal combinations surpassing the individual contributions. We conclude that studying exemplar optimization both as a standalone method and its optimal combination with instruction optimization remain a crucial aspect of APO and deserve greater consideration in future research, even in the era of highly capable instruction-following models.

Xingchen Wan, Ruoxi Sun, Hootan Nakhost et al.

A hallmark of modern large language models (LLMs) is their impressive general zero-shot and few-shot abilities, often elicited through in-context learning (ICL) via prompting. However, while highly coveted and being the most general, zero-shot performances in LLMs are still typically weaker due to the lack of guidance and the difficulty of applying existing automatic prompt design methods in general tasks when ground-truth labels are unavailable. In this study, we address this by presenting Universal Self-Adaptive Prompting (USP), an automatic prompt design approach specifically tailored for zero-shot learning (while compatible with few-shot). Requiring only a small amount of unlabeled data and an inference-only LLM, USP is highly versatile: to achieve universal prompting, USP categorizes a possible NLP task into one of the three possible task types and then uses a corresponding selector to select the most suitable queries and zero-shot model-generated responses as pseudo-demonstrations, thereby generalizing ICL to the zero-shot setup in a fully automated way. We evaluate USP with PaLM and PaLM 2 models and demonstrate performances that are considerably stronger than standard zero-shot baselines and often comparable to or even superior to few-shot baselines across more than 40 natural language understanding, natural language generation, and reasoning tasks.

Xingchen Wan, Ruoxi Sun, Hanjun Dai et al.

Modern large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated impressive capabilities at sophisticated tasks, often through step-by-step reasoning similar to humans. This is made possible by their strong few and zero-shot abilities -- they can effectively learn from a handful of handcrafted, completed responses ("in-context examples"), or are prompted to reason spontaneously through specially designed triggers. Nonetheless, some limitations have been observed. First, performance in the few-shot setting is sensitive to the choice of examples, whose design requires significant human effort. Moreover, given the diverse downstream tasks of LLMs, it may be difficult or laborious to handcraft per-task labels. Second, while the zero-shot setting does not require handcrafting, its performance is limited due to the lack of guidance to the LLMs. To address these limitations, we propose Consistency-based Self-adaptive Prompting (COSP), a novel prompt design method for LLMs. Requiring neither handcrafted responses nor ground-truth labels, COSP selects and builds the set of examples from the LLM zero-shot outputs via carefully designed criteria that combine consistency, diversity and repetition. In the zero-shot setting for three different LLMs, we show that using only LLM predictions, COSP improves performance up to 15% compared to zero-shot baselines and matches or exceeds few-shot baselines for a range of reasoning tasks.

Sercan O. Arik, Nathanael C. Yoder, Tomas Pfister

Real-world time-series datasets often violate the assumptions of standard supervised learning for forecasting -- their distributions evolve over time, rendering the conventional training and model selection procedures suboptimal. In this paper, we propose a novel method, Self-Adaptive Forecasting (SAF), to modify the training of time-series forecasting models to improve their performance on forecasting tasks with such non-stationary time-series data. SAF integrates a self-adaptation stage prior to forecasting based on `backcasting', i.e. predicting masked inputs backward in time. This is a form of test-time training that creates a self-supervised learning problem on test samples before performing the prediction task. In this way, our method enables efficient adaptation of encoded representations to evolving distributions, leading to superior generalization. SAF can be integrated with any canonical encoder-decoder based time-series architecture such as recurrent neural networks or attention-based architectures. On synthetic and real-world datasets in domains where time-series data are known to be notoriously non-stationary, such as healthcare and finance, we demonstrate a significant benefit of SAF in improving forecasting accuracy.

Sungyong Seo, Sercan O. Arik, Jinsung Yoon et al.

We propose a novel training method that integrates rules into deep learning, in a way the strengths of the rules are controllable at inference. Deep Neural Networks with Controllable Rule Representations (DeepCTRL) incorporates a rule encoder into the model coupled with a rule-based objective, enabling a shared representation for decision making. DeepCTRL is agnostic to data type and model architecture. It can be applied to any kind of rule defined for inputs and outputs. The key aspect of DeepCTRL is that it does not require retraining to adapt the rule strength -- at inference, the user can adjust it based on the desired operation point on accuracy vs. rule verification ratio. In real-world domains where incorporating rules is critical -- such as Physics, Retail and Healthcare -- we show the effectiveness of DeepCTRL in teaching rules for deep learning. DeepCTRL improves the trust and reliability of the trained models by significantly increasing their rule verification ratio, while also providing accuracy gains at downstream tasks. Additionally, DeepCTRL enables novel use cases such as hypothesis testing of the rules on data samples, and unsupervised adaptation based on shared rules between datasets.

Jinsung Yoon, Kihyuk Sohn, Chun-Liang Li et al.

Anomaly detection (AD), separating anomalies from normal data, has many applications across domains, from security to healthcare. While most previous works were shown to be effective for cases with fully or partially labeled data, that setting is in practice less common due to labeling being particularly tedious for this task. In this paper, we focus on fully unsupervised AD, in which the entire training dataset, containing both normal and anomalous samples, is unlabeled. To tackle this problem effectively, we propose to improve the robustness of one-class classification trained on self-supervised representations using a data refinement process. Our proposed data refinement approach is based on an ensemble of one-class classifiers (OCCs), each of which is trained on a disjoint subset of training data. Representations learned by self-supervised learning on the refined data are iteratively updated as the data refinement improves. We demonstrate our method on various unsupervised AD tasks with image and tabular data. With a 10% anomaly ratio on CIFAR-10 image data / 2.5% anomaly ratio on Thyroid tabular data, the proposed method outperforms the state-of-the-art one-class classifier by 6.3 AUC and 12.5 average precision / 22.9 F1-score.

Sercan O. Arik, Chun-Liang Li, Jinsung Yoon et al.

We propose a novel approach that integrates machine learning into compartmental disease modeling to predict the progression of COVID-19. Our model is explainable by design as it explicitly shows how different compartments evolve and it uses interpretable encoders to incorporate covariates and improve performance. Explainability is valuable to ensure that the model's forecasts are credible to epidemiologists and to instill confidence in end-users such as policy makers and healthcare institutions. Our model can be applied at different geographic resolutions, and here we demonstrate it for states and counties in the United States. We show that our model provides more accurate forecasts, in metrics averaged across the entire US, than state-of-the-art alternatives, and that it provides qualitatively meaningful explanatory insights. Lastly, we analyze the performance of our model for different subgroups based on the subgroup distributions within the counties.

Yu-han Liu, Sercan O. Arik

We propose a novel method to explain trained deep neural networks (DNNs), by distilling them into surrogate models using unsupervised clustering. Our method can be applied flexibly to any subset of layers of a DNN architecture and can incorporate low-level and high-level information. On image datasets given pre-trained DNNs, we demonstrate the strength of our method in finding similar training samples, and shedding light on the concepts the DNNs base their decisions on. Via user studies, we show that our model can improve the user trust in model's prediction.

Bryan Lim, Sercan O. Arik, Nicolas Loeff et al.

Multi-horizon forecasting problems often contain a complex mix of inputs -- including static (i.e. time-invariant) covariates, known future inputs, and other exogenous time series that are only observed historically -- without any prior information on how they interact with the target. While several deep learning models have been proposed for multi-step prediction, they typically comprise black-box models which do not account for the full range of inputs present in common scenarios. In this paper, we introduce the Temporal Fusion Transformer (TFT) -- a novel attention-based architecture which combines high-performance multi-horizon forecasting with interpretable insights into temporal dynamics. To learn temporal relationships at different scales, the TFT utilizes recurrent layers for local processing and interpretable self-attention layers for learning long-term dependencies. The TFT also uses specialized components for the judicious selection of relevant features and a series of gating layers to suppress unnecessary components, enabling high performance in a wide range of regimes. On a variety of real-world datasets, we demonstrate significant performance improvements over existing benchmarks, and showcase three practical interpretability use-cases of TFT.

Mingfei Gao, Zizhao Zhang, Guo Yu et al.

Active learning (AL) combines data labeling and model training to minimize the labeling cost by prioritizing the selection of high value data that can best improve model performance. In pool-based active learning, accessible unlabeled data are not used for model training in most conventional methods. Here, we propose to unify unlabeled sample selection and model training towards minimizing labeling cost, and make two contributions towards that end. First, we exploit both labeled and unlabeled data using semi-supervised learning (SSL) to distill information from unlabeled data during the training stage. Second, we propose a consistency-based sample selection metric that is coherent with the training objective such that the selected samples are effective at improving model performance. We conduct extensive experiments on image classification tasks. The experimental results on CIFAR-10, CIFAR-100 and ImageNet demonstrate the superior performance of our proposed method with limited labeled data, compared to the existing methods and the alternative AL and SSL combinations. Additionally, we study an important yet under-explored problem -- "When can we start learning-based AL selection?". We propose a measure that is empirically correlated with the AL target loss and is potentially useful for determining the proper starting point of learning-based AL methods.

Jinsung Yoon, Sercan O. Arik, Tomas Pfister

Understanding black-box machine learning models is crucial for their widespread adoption. Learning globally interpretable models is one approach, but achieving high performance with them is challenging. An alternative approach is to explain individual predictions using locally interpretable models. For locally interpretable modeling, various methods have been proposed and indeed commonly used, but they suffer from low fidelity, i.e. their explanations do not approximate the predictions well. In this paper, our goal is to push the state-of-the-art in high-fidelity locally interpretable modeling. We propose a novel framework, Locally Interpretable Modeling using Instance-wise Subsampling (LIMIS). LIMIS utilizes a policy gradient to select a small number of instances and distills the black-box model into a low-capacity locally interpretable model using those selected instances. Training is guided with a reward obtained directly by measuring the fidelity of the locally interpretable models. We show on multiple tabular datasets that LIMIS near-matches the prediction accuracy of black-box models, significantly outperforming state-of-the-art locally interpretable models in terms of fidelity and prediction accuracy.

Jinsung Yoon, Sercan O. Arik, Tomas Pfister

Quantifying the value of data is a fundamental problem in machine learning. Data valuation has multiple important use cases: (1) building insights about the learning task, (2) domain adaptation, (3) corrupted sample discovery, and (4) robust learning. To adaptively learn data values jointly with the target task predictor model, we propose a meta learning framework which we name Data Valuation using Reinforcement Learning (DVRL). We employ a data value estimator (modeled by a deep neural network) to learn how likely each datum is used in training of the predictor model. We train the data value estimator using a reinforcement signal of the reward obtained on a small validation set that reflects performance on the target task. We demonstrate that DVRL yields superior data value estimates compared to alternative methods across different types of datasets and in a diverse set of application scenarios. The corrupted sample discovery performance of DVRL is close to optimal in many regimes (i.e. as if the noisy samples were known apriori), and for domain adaptation and robust learning DVRL significantly outperforms state-of-the-art by 14.6% and 10.8%, respectively.

Linchao Zhu, Sercan O. Arik, Yi Yang et al.

We propose a novel adaptive transfer learning framework, learning to transfer learn (L2TL), to improve performance on a target dataset by careful extraction of the related information from a source dataset. Our framework considers cooperative optimization of shared weights between models for source and target tasks, and adjusts the constituent loss weights adaptively. The adaptation of the weights is based on a reinforcement learning (RL) selection policy, guided with a performance metric on the target validation set. We demonstrate that L2TL outperforms fine-tuning baselines and other adaptive transfer learning methods on eight datasets. In the regimes of small-scale target datasets and significant label mismatch between source and target datasets, L2TL shows particularly large benefits.

Sercan O. Arik, Tomas Pfister

We propose a novel high-performance and interpretable canonical deep tabular data learning architecture, TabNet. TabNet uses sequential attention to choose which features to reason from at each decision step, enabling interpretability and more efficient learning as the learning capacity is used for the most salient features. We demonstrate that TabNet outperforms other neural network and decision tree variants on a wide range of non-performance-saturated tabular datasets and yields interpretable feature attributions plus insights into the global model behavior. Finally, for the first time to our knowledge, we demonstrate self-supervised learning for tabular data, significantly improving performance with unsupervised representation learning when unlabeled data is abundant.

Sercan O. Arik, Tomas Pfister

We propose a novel inherently interpretable machine learning method that bases decisions on few relevant examples that we call prototypes. Our method, ProtoAttend, can be integrated into a wide range of neural network architectures including pre-trained models. It utilizes an attention mechanism that relates the encoded representations to samples in order to determine prototypes. The resulting model outperforms state of the art in three high impact problems without sacrificing accuracy of the original model: (1) it enables high-quality interpretability that outputs samples most relevant to the decision-making (i.e. a sample-based interpretability method); (2) it achieves state of the art confidence estimation by quantifying the mismatch across prototype labels; and (3) it obtains state of the art in distribution mismatch detection. All this can be achieved with minimal additional test time and a practically viable training time computational cost.

Sercan O. Arik, Heewoo Jun, Gregory Diamos

We propose the multi-head convolutional neural network (MCNN) architecture for waveform synthesis from spectrograms. Nonlinear interpolation in MCNN is employed with transposed convolution layers in parallel heads. MCNN achieves more than an order of magnitude higher compute intensity than commonly-used iterative algorithms like Griffin-Lim, yielding efficient utilization for modern multi-core processors, and very fast (more than 300x real-time) waveform synthesis. For training of MCNN, we use a large-scale speech recognition dataset and losses defined on waveforms that are related to perceptual audio quality. We demonstrate that MCNN constitutes a very promising approach for high-quality speech synthesis, without any iterative algorithms or autoregression in computations.

Sercan O. Arik, Jitong Chen, Kainan Peng et al.

Voice cloning is a highly desired feature for personalized speech interfaces. Neural network based speech synthesis has been shown to generate high quality speech for a large number of speakers. In this paper, we introduce a neural voice cloning system that takes a few audio samples as input. We study two approaches: speaker adaptation and speaker encoding. Speaker adaptation is based on fine-tuning a multi-speaker generative model with a few cloning samples. Speaker encoding is based on training a separate model to directly infer a new speaker embedding from cloning audios and to be used with a multi-speaker generative model. In terms of naturalness of the speech and its similarity to original speaker, both approaches can achieve good performance, even with very few cloning audios. While speaker adaptation can achieve better naturalness and similarity, the cloning time or required memory for the speaker encoding approach is significantly less, making it favorable for low-resource deployment.

Wei Ping, Kainan Peng, Andrew Gibiansky et al.

We present Deep Voice 3, a fully-convolutional attention-based neural text-to-speech (TTS) system. Deep Voice 3 matches state-of-the-art neural speech synthesis systems in naturalness while training ten times faster. We scale Deep Voice 3 to data set sizes unprecedented for TTS, training on more than eight hundred hours of audio from over two thousand speakers. In addition, we identify common error modes of attention-based speech synthesis networks, demonstrate how to mitigate them, and compare several different waveform synthesis methods. We also describe how to scale inference to ten million queries per day on one single-GPU server.

Sercan O. Arik, Markus Kliegl, Rewon Child et al.

Keyword spotting (KWS) constitutes a major component of human-technology interfaces. Maximizing the detection accuracy at a low false alarm (FA) rate, while minimizing the footprint size, latency and complexity are the goals for KWS. Towards achieving them, we study Convolutional Recurrent Neural Networks (CRNNs). Inspired by large-scale state-of-the-art speech recognition systems, we combine the strengths of convolutional layers and recurrent layers to exploit local structure and long-range context. We analyze the effect of architecture parameters, and propose training strategies to improve performance. With only ~230k parameters, our CRNN model yields acceptably low latency, and achieves 97.71% accuracy at 0.5 FA/hour for 5 dB signal-to-noise ratio.

Sercan O. Arik, Mike Chrzanowski, Adam Coates et al.

We present Deep Voice, a production-quality text-to-speech system constructed entirely from deep neural networks. Deep Voice lays the groundwork for truly end-to-end neural speech synthesis. The system comprises five major building blocks: a segmentation model for locating phoneme boundaries, a grapheme-to-phoneme conversion model, a phoneme duration prediction model, a fundamental frequency prediction model, and an audio synthesis model. For the segmentation model, we propose a novel way of performing phoneme boundary detection with deep neural networks using connectionist temporal classification (CTC) loss. For the audio synthesis model, we implement a variant of WaveNet that requires fewer parameters and trains faster than the original. By using a neural network for each component, our system is simpler and more flexible than traditional text-to-speech systems, where each component requires laborious feature engineering and extensive domain expertise. Finally, we show that inference with our system can be performed faster than real time and describe optimized WaveNet inference kernels on both CPU and GPU that achieve up to 400x speedups over existing implementations.