D. R. Weimer

David Von Dollen, Sheir Yarkoni, Daniel Weimer et al.

Genetic algorithms have unique properties which are useful when applied to black box optimization. Using selection, crossover, and mutation operators, candidate solutions may be obtained without the need to calculate a gradient. In this work, we study results obtained from using quantum-enhanced operators within the selection mechanism of a genetic algorithm. Our approach frames the selection process as a minimization of a binary quadratic model with which we encode fitness and distance between members of a population, and we leverage a quantum annealing system to sample low energy solutions for the selection mechanism. We benchmark these quantum-enhanced algorithms against classical algorithms over various black-box objective functions, including the OneMax function, and functions from the IOHProfiler library for black-box optimization. We observe a performance gain in average number of generations to convergence for the quantum-enhanced elitist selection operator in comparison to classical on the OneMax function. We also find that the quantum-enhanced selection operator with non-elitist selection outperform benchmarks on functions with fitness perturbation from the IOHProfiler library. Additionally, we find that in the case of elitist selection, the quantum-enhanced operators outperform classical benchmarks on functions with varying degrees of dummy variables and neutrality.

Richard J. Licata, Piyush M. Mehta, Daniel R. Weimer et al.

Machine learning (ML) is often viewed as a black-box regression technique that is unable to provide considerable scientific insight. ML models are universal function approximators and - if used correctly - can provide scientific information related to the ground-truth dataset used for fitting. A benefit to ML over parametric models is that there are no predefined basis functions limiting the phenomena that can be modeled. In this work, we develop ML models on three datasets: the Space Environment Technologies (SET) High Accuracy Satellite Drag Model (HASDM) density database, a spatiotemporally matched dataset of outputs from the Jacchia-Bowman 2008 Empirical Thermospheric Density Model (JB2008), and an accelerometer-derived density dataset from CHAllenging Minisatellite Payload (CHAMP). These ML models are compared to the Naval Research Laboratory Mass Spectrometer and Incoherent Scatter radar (NRLMSIS 2.0) model to study the presence of post-storm cooling in the middle-thermosphere. We find that both NRLMSIS 2.0 and JB2008-ML do not account for post-storm cooling and consequently perform poorly in periods following strong geomagnetic storms (e.g. the 2003 Halloween storms). Conversely, HASDM-ML and CHAMP-ML do show evidence of post-storm cooling indicating that this phenomenon is present in the original datasets. Results show that density reductions up to 40% can occur 1--3 days post-storm depending on location and the strength of the storm.

Richard J. Licata, Piyush M. Mehta, Daniel R. Weimer et al.

The Mass Spectrometer and Incoherent Scatter radar (MSIS) model family has been developed and improved since the early 1970's. The most recent version of MSIS is the Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) MSIS 2.0 empirical atmospheric model. NRLMSIS 2.0 provides species density, mass density, and temperature estimates as function of location and space weather conditions. MSIS models have long been a popular choice of atmosphere model in the research and operations community alike, but - like many models - does not provide uncertainty estimates. In this work, we develop an exospheric temperature model based in machine learning (ML) that can be used with NRLMSIS 2.0 to calibrate it relative to high-fidelity satellite density estimates. Instead of providing point estimates, our model (called MSIS-UQ) outputs a distribution which is assessed using a metric called the calibration error score. We show that MSIS-UQ debiases NRLMSIS 2.0 resulting in reduced differences between model and satellite density of 25% and is 11% closer to satellite density than the Space Force's High Accuracy Satellite Drag Model. We also show the model's uncertainty estimation capabilities by generating altitude profiles for species density, mass density, and temperature. This explicitly demonstrates how exospheric temperature probabilities affect density and temperature profiles within NRLMSIS 2.0. Another study displays improved post-storm overcooling capabilities relative to NRLMSIS 2.0 alone, enhancing the phenomena that it can capture.

David Von Dollen, Florian Neukart, Daniel Weimer et al.

Within machine learning model evaluation regimes, feature selection is a technique to reduce model complexity and improve model performance in regards to generalization, model fit, and accuracy of prediction. However, the search over the space of features to find the subset of $k$ optimal features is a known NP-Hard problem. In this work, we study metrics for encoding the combinatorial search as a binary quadratic model, such as Generalized Mean Information Coefficient and Pearson Correlation Coefficient in application to the underlying regression problem of price prediction. We investigate trade-offs in the form of run-times and model performance, of leveraging quantum-assisted vs. classical subroutines for the combinatorial search, using minimum redundancy maximal relevancy as the heuristic for our approach. We achieve accuracy scores of 0.9 (in the range of [0,1]) for finding optimal subsets on synthetic data using a new metric that we define. We test and cross-validate predictive models on a real-world problem of price prediction, and show a performance improvement of mean absolute error scores for our quantum-assisted method $(1471.02 \pm{135.6})$, vs. similar methodologies such as recursive feature elimination $(1678.3 \pm{143.7})$. Our findings show that by leveraging quantum-assisted routines we find solutions that increase the quality of predictive model output while reducing the input dimensionality to the learning algorithm on synthetic and real-world data.