Abolfazl Mohammadi-Seif

Abolfazl Mohammadi-Seif, Carlos Soares, Rita P. Ribeiro et al.

Despite the strong predictive performance achieved by machine learning models across many application domains, assessing their trustworthiness through reliable estimates of predictive confidence remains a critical challenge. This issue arises in scenarios where the likelihood of error inferred from learned representations follows a bimodal distribution, resulting from the coexistence of confident and ambiguous predictions. Standard regression approaches often struggle to adequately express this predictive uncertainty, as they implicitly assume unimodal Gaussian noise, leading to mean-collapse behavior in such settings. Although Mixture Density Networks (MDNs) can represent different distributions, they suffer from severe optimization instability. We propose a family of distribution-aware loss functions integrating normalized RMSE with Wasserstein and Cramér distances. When applied to standard deep regression models, our approach recovers bimodal distributions without the volatility of mixture models. Validated across four experimental stages, our results show that the proposed Wasserstein loss establishes a new Pareto efficiency frontier: matching the stability of standard regression losses like MSE in unimodal tasks while reducing Jensen-Shannon Divergence by 45% on complex bimodal datasets. Our framework strictly dominates MDNs in both fidelity and robustness, offering a reliable tool for aleatoric uncertainty estimation in trustworthy AI systems.

Abolfazl Mohammadi-Seif, Ricardo Baeza-Yates

The widespread adoption of machine learning in critical applications demands techniques to mitigate high-consequence errors. Our method utilizes a dual-classifier GBDT pipeline to distinguish routine human-like errors from high-risk non-human misclassifications. Evaluated across three domains, animal breed classification, skin lesion diagnosis (ISIC 2018), and prostate histopathology (SICAPv2), our framework demonstrates robust safety improvements. To address real-world deployment concerns, our results confirm the pipeline introduces negligible inference latency (1.60% overhead for the animal dataset, 1.84% for ISIC, and 1.70% for SICAPv2) while outperforming traditional Maximum Class Probability (MCP) baselines in correction precision. Our conservative correction strategy successfully reduced dangerous non-human errors by 34.1% in ISIC and 12.57% in SICAPv2, improving super-class diagnostic safety to 90.41% and 92.13% respectively. This proves that safety-critical reliability can be substantially enhanced post-hoc without expensive model retraining. keywords: Error Analysis, Post-hoc Correction, Trustworthy AI.

Abolfazl Mohammadi-Seif, Ricardo Baeza-Yates

Machine learning progress has historically prioritized model-centric innovations, yet achievable performance is frequently capped by the intrinsic complexity of the data itself. In this work, we isolate and quantify the impact of instance density (measured by face count) as a primary driver of data complexity. Rather than simply observing that ``crowded scenes are harder,'' we rigorously control for class imbalance to measure the precise degradation caused by density alone. Controlled experiments on the WIDER FACE and Open Images datasets, restricted to exactly 1 to 18 faces per image with perfectly balanced sampling, reveal that model performance degrades monotonically with increasing face count. This trend holds across classification, regression, and detection paradigms, even when models are fully exposed to the entire density range. Furthermore, we demonstrate that models trained on low-density regimes fail to generalize to higher densities, exhibiting a systematic under-counting bias, with error rates increasing by up to 4.6x, which suggests density acts as a domain shift. These findings establish instance density as an intrinsic, quantifiable dimension of data hardness and motivate specific interventions in curriculum learning and density-stratified evaluation.

Abolfazl Mohammadi-Seif, Ricardo Baeza-Yates

Deep learning models often achieve expert-level accuracy in medical image classification but suffer from a critical flaw: semantic incoherence. These high-confidence mistakes that are semantically incoherent (e.g., classifying a malignant tumor as benign) fundamentally differ from acceptable errors which stem from visual ambiguity. Unlike safe, fine-grained disagreements, these fatal failures erode clinical trust. To address this, we propose Risk-Calibrated Learning, a technique that explicitly distinguishes between visual ambiguity (fine-grained errors) and catastrophic structural errors. By embedding a confusion-aware clinical severity matrix M into the optimization landscape, our method suppresses critical errors (false negatives) without requiring complex architectural changes. We validate our approach in four different imaging modalities: Brain Tumor MRI, ISIC 2018 (Dermoscopy), BreaKHis (Breast Histopathology), and SICAPv2 (Prostate Histopathology). Extensive experiments demonstrate that our Risk-Calibrated Loss consistently reduces the Critical Error Rate (CER) for all four datasets, achieving relative safety improvements ranging from 20.0% (on breast histopathology) to 92.4% (on prostate histopathology) compared to state-of-the-art baselines such as Focal Loss. These results confirm that our method offers a superior safety-accuracy trade-off across both CNN and Transformer architectures.