Carlos Soares

I. Oliveira e Silva, C. Soares, I. Sousa et al.

Arbitrary, inconsistent, or faulty decision-making raises serious concerns, and preventing unfair models is an increasingly important challenge in Machine Learning. Data often reflect past discriminatory behavior, and models trained on such data may reflect bias on sensitive attributes, such as gender, race, or age. One approach to developing fair models is to preprocess the training data to remove the underlying biases while preserving the relevant information, for example, by correcting biased labels. While multiple label noise correction methods are available, the information about their behavior in identifying discrimination is very limited. In this work, we develop an empirical methodology to systematically evaluate the effectiveness of label noise correction techniques in ensuring the fairness of models trained on biased datasets. Our methodology involves manipulating the amount of label noise and can be used with fairness benchmarks but also with standard ML datasets. We apply the methodology to analyze six label noise correction methods according to several fairness metrics on standard OpenML datasets. Our results suggest that the Hybrid Label Noise Correction method achieves the best trade-off between predictive performance and fairness. Clustering-Based Correction can reduce discrimination the most, however, at the cost of lower predictive performance.

Luis Roque, Carlos Soares, Luís Torgo

We introduce the Robustness of Hierarchically Organized Time Series (RHiOTS) framework, designed to assess the robustness of hierarchical time series forecasting models and algorithms on real-world datasets. Hierarchical time series, where lower-level forecasts must sum to upper-level ones, are prevalent in various contexts, such as retail sales across countries. Current empirical evaluations of forecasting methods are often limited to a small set of benchmark datasets, offering a narrow view of algorithm behavior. RHiOTS addresses this gap by systematically altering existing datasets and modifying the characteristics of individual series and their interrelations. It uses a set of parameterizable transformations to simulate those changes in the data distribution. Additionally, RHiOTS incorporates an innovative visualization component, turning complex, multidimensional robustness evaluation results into intuitive, easily interpretable visuals. This approach allows an in-depth analysis of algorithm and model behavior under diverse conditions. We illustrate the use of RHiOTS by analyzing the predictive performance of several algorithms. Our findings show that traditional statistical methods are more robust than state-of-the-art deep learning algorithms, except when the transformation effect is highly disruptive. Furthermore, we found no significant differences in the robustness of the algorithms when applying specific reconciliation methods, such as MinT. RHiOTS provides researchers with a comprehensive tool for understanding the nuanced behavior of forecasting algorithms, offering a more reliable basis for selecting the most appropriate method for a given problem.

Vitor Cerqueira, Luis Torgo, Carlos Soares

Time series forecasting is one of the most active research topics. Machine learning methods have been increasingly adopted to solve these predictive tasks. However, in a recent work, these were shown to systematically present a lower predictive performance relative to simple statistical methods. In this work, we counter these results. We show that these are only valid under an extremely low sample size. Using a learning curve method, our results suggest that machine learning methods improve their relative predictive performance as the sample size grows. The code to reproduce the experiments is available at https://github.com/vcerqueira/MLforForecasting.

Pedro Saleiro, Natasa Milic-Frayling, Eduarda Mendes Rodrigues et al.

Improvements of entity-relationship (E-R) search techniques have been hampered by a lack of test collections, particularly for complex queries involving multiple entities and relationships. In this paper we describe a method for generating E-R test queries to support comprehensive E-R search experiments. Queries and relevance judgments are created from content that exists in a tabular form where columns represent entity types and the table structure implies one or more relationships among the entities. Editorial work involves creating natural language queries based on relationships represented by the entries in the table. We have publicly released the RELink test collection comprising 600 queries and relevance judgments obtained from a sample of Wikipedia List-of-lists-of-lists tables. The latter comprise tuples of entities that are extracted from columns and labelled by corresponding entity types and relationships they represent. In order to facilitate research in complex E-R retrieval, we have created and released as open source the RELink Framework that includes Apache Lucene indexing and search specifically tailored to E-R retrieval. RELink includes entity and relationship indexing based on the ClueWeb-09-B Web collection with FACC1 text span annotations linked to Wikipedia entities. With ready to use search resources and a comprehensive test collection, we support community in pursuing E-R research at scale.

Luis Roque, Carlos Soares, Vitor Cerqueira et al.

The importance of time series forecasting drives continuous research and the development of new approaches to tackle this problem. Typically, these methods are introduced through empirical studies that frequently claim superior accuracy for the proposed approaches. Nevertheless, concerns are rising about the reliability and generalizability of these results due to limitations in experimental setups. This paper addresses a critical limitation: the number and representativeness of the datasets used. We investigate the impact of dataset selection bias, particularly the practice of cherry-picking datasets, on the performance evaluation of forecasting methods. Through empirical analysis with a diverse set of benchmark datasets, our findings reveal that cherry-picking datasets can significantly distort the perceived performance of methods, often exaggerating their effectiveness. Furthermore, our results demonstrate that by selectively choosing just four datasets - what most studies report - 46% of methods could be deemed best in class, and 77% could rank within the top three. Additionally, recent deep learning-based approaches show high sensitivity to dataset selection, whereas classical methods exhibit greater robustness. Finally, our results indicate that, when empirically validating forecasting algorithms on a subset of the benchmarks, increasing the number of datasets tested from 3 to 6 reduces the risk of incorrectly identifying an algorithm as the best one by approximately 40%. Our study highlights the critical need for comprehensive evaluation frameworks that more accurately reflect real-world scenarios. Adopting such frameworks will ensure the development of robust and reliable forecasting methods.

Vitor Cerqueira, Nuno Moniz, Ricardo Inácio et al.

Recent state-of-the-art forecasting methods are trained on collections of time series. These methods, often referred to as global models, can capture common patterns in different time series to improve their generalization performance. However, they require large amounts of data that might not be readily available. Besides this, global models sometimes fail to capture relevant patterns unique to a particular time series. In these cases, data augmentation can be useful to increase the sample size of time series datasets. The main contribution of this work is a novel method for generating univariate time series synthetic samples. Our approach stems from the insight that the observations concerning a particular time series of interest represent only a small fraction of all observations. In this context, we frame the problem of training a forecasting model as an imbalanced learning task. Oversampling strategies are popular approaches used to deal with the imbalance problem in machine learning. We use these techniques to create synthetic time series observations and improve the accuracy of forecasting models. We carried out experiments using 7 different databases that contain a total of 5502 univariate time series. We found that the proposed solution outperforms both a global and a local model, thus providing a better trade-off between these two approaches.

Luis Roque, Carlos Soares, Vitor Cerqueira et al.

Data augmentation is gaining importance across various aspects of time series analysis, from forecasting to classification and anomaly detection tasks. We introduce the Latent Generative Transformer Augmentation (L-GTA) model, a generative approach using a transformer-based variational recurrent autoencoder. This model uses controlled transformations within the latent space of the model to generate new time series that preserve the intrinsic properties of the original dataset. L-GTA enables the application of diverse transformations, ranging from simple jittering to magnitude warping, and combining these basic transformations to generate more complex synthetic time series datasets. Our evaluation of several real-world datasets demonstrates the ability of L-GTA to produce more reliable, consistent, and controllable augmented data. This translates into significant improvements in predictive accuracy and similarity measures compared to direct transformation methods.

Ricardo Inácio, Zafeiris Kokkinogenis, Vitor Cerqueira et al.

Predictive models often reinforce biases which were originally embedded in their training data, through skewed decisions. In such cases, mitigation methods are critical to ensure that, regardless of the prevailing disparities, model outcomes are adjusted to be fair. To assess this, datasets could be systematically generated with specific biases, to train machine learning classifiers. Then, predictive outcomes could aid in the understanding of this bias embedding process. Hence, an agent-based model (ABM), depicting a loan application process that represents various systemic biases across two demographic groups, was developed to produce synthetic datasets. Then, by applying classifiers trained on them to predict loan outcomes, we can assess how biased data leads to unfairness. This highlights a main contribution of this work: a framework for synthetic dataset generation with controllable bias injection. We also contribute with a novel explainability technique, which shows how mitigations affect the way classifiers leverage data features, via second-order Shapley values. In experiments, both offline and online learning approaches are employed. Mitigations are applied at different stages of the modelling pipeline, such as during pre-processing and in-processing.

Ricardo Inácio, Vitor Cerqueira, Marília Barandas et al.

The effectiveness of univariate forecasting models is often hampered by conditions that cause them stress. A model is considered to be under stress if it shows a negative behaviour, such as higher-than-usual errors or increased uncertainty. Understanding the factors that cause stress to forecasting models is important to improve their reliability, transparency, and utility. This paper addresses this problem by contributing with a novel framework called MAST (Meta-learning and data Augmentation for Stress Testing). The proposed approach aims to model and characterize stress in univariate time series forecasting models, focusing on conditions where they exhibit large errors. In particular, MAST is a meta-learning approach that predicts the probability that a given model will perform poorly on a given time series based on a set of statistical time series features. MAST also encompasses a novel data augmentation technique based on oversampling to improve the metadata concerning stress. We conducted experiments using three benchmark datasets that contain a total of 49.794 time series to validate the performance of MAST. The results suggest that the proposed approach is able to identify conditions that lead to large errors. The method and experiments are publicly available in a repository.

Rodrigo Tuna, Yassine Baghoussi, Carlos Soares et al.

Forecasting methods are affected by data quality issues in two ways: 1. they are hard to predict, and 2. they may affect the model negatively when it is updated with new data. The latter issue is usually addressed by pre-processing the data to remove those issues. An alternative approach has recently been proposed, Corrector LSTM (cLSTM), which is a Read \& Write Machine Learning (RW-ML) algorithm that changes the data while learning to improve its predictions. Despite promising results being reported, cLSTM is computationally expensive, as it uses a meta-learner to monitor the hidden states of the LSTM. We propose a new RW-ML algorithm, Kernel Corrector LSTM (KcLSTM), that replaces the meta-learner of cLSTM with a simpler method: Kernel Smoothing. We empirically evaluate the forecasting accuracy and the training time of the new algorithm and compare it with cLSTM and LSTM. Results indicate that it is able to decrease the training time while maintaining a competitive forecasting accuracy.

Moisés Santos, André de Carvalho, Carlos Soares

Time series forecasting is a subject of significant scientific and industrial importance. Despite the widespread utilization of forecasting methods, there is a dearth of research aimed at comprehending the conditions under which these methods yield favorable or unfavorable performances. Empirical studies, although common, are challenged by the limited availability of time series datasets, restricting the extraction of reliable insights. To address this limitation, we present tsMorph, a tool for generating semi-synthetic time series through dataset morphing. tsMorph works by creating a sequence of datasets from two original datasets. The characteristics of the generated datasets progressively depart from those of one of the datasets and converge toward the attributes of the other dataset. This method provides a valuable alternative for obtaining substantial datasets. In this paper, we show the benefits of tsMorph by assessing the predictive performance of the Long Short-Term Memory Network and DeepAR forecasting algorithms. The time series used for the experiments comes from the NN5 Competition. The experimental results provide important insights. Notably, the performances of the two algorithms improve proportionally with the frequency of the time series. These experiments confirm that tsMorph can be an effective tool for better understanding the behavior of forecasting algorithms, delivering a pathway to overcoming the limitations posed by empirical studies and enabling more extensive and reliable experiments.

Tarsicio Lucas, Teresa Ludermir, Ricardo Prudencio et al.

The optimization of Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) is an important task to the success of using these models in real-world applications. The solutions adopted to this task are expensive in general, involving trial-and-error procedures or expert knowledge which are not always available. In this work, we investigated the use of meta-learning to the optimization of ANNs. Meta-learning is a research field aiming to automatically acquiring knowledge which relates features of the learning problems to the performance of the learning algorithms. The meta-learning techniques were originally proposed and evaluated to the algorithm selection problem and after to the optimization of parameters for Support Vector Machines. However, meta-learning can be adopted as a more general strategy to optimize ANN parameters, which motivates new efforts in this research direction. In the current work, we performed a case study using meta-learning to choose the number of hidden nodes for MLP networks, which is an important parameter to be defined aiming a good networks performance. In our work, we generated a base of meta-examples associated to 93 regression problems. Each meta-example was generated from a regression problem and stored: 16 features describing the problem (e.g., number of attributes and correlation among the problem attributes) and the best number of nodes for this problem, empirically chosen from a range of possible values. This set of meta-examples was given as input to a meta-learner which was able to predict the best number of nodes for new problems based on their features. The experiments performed in this case study revealed satisfactory results.

André Baptista, Yassine Baghoussi, Carlos Soares et al.

Forecasting accuracy is reliant on the quality of available past data. Data disruptions can adversely affect the quality of the generated model (e.g. unexpected events such as out-of-stock products when forecasting demand). We address this problem by pastcasting: predicting how data should have been in the past to explain the future better. We propose Pastprop-LSTM, a data-centric backpropagation algorithm that assigns part of the responsibility for errors to the training data and changes it accordingly. We test three variants of Pastprop-LSTM on forecasting competition datasets, M4 and M5, plus the Numenta Anomaly Benchmark. Empirical evaluation indicates that the proposed method can improve forecasting accuracy, especially when the prediction errors of standard LSTM are high. It also demonstrates the potential of the algorithm on datasets containing anomalies.

Vitor Cerqueira, Luis Torgo, Carlos Soares et al.

The predictive advantage of combining several different predictive models is widely accepted. Particularly in time series forecasting problems, this combination is often dynamic to cope with potential non-stationary sources of variation present in the data. Despite their superior predictive performance, ensemble methods entail two main limitations: high computational costs and lack of transparency. These issues often preclude the deployment of such approaches, in favour of simpler yet more efficient and reliable ones. In this paper, we leverage the idea of model compression to address this problem in time series forecasting tasks. Model compression approaches have been mostly unexplored for forecasting. Their application in time series is challenging due to the evolving nature of the data. Further, while the literature focuses on neural networks, we apply model compression to distinct types of methods. In an extensive set of experiments, we show that compressing dynamic forecasting ensembles into an individual model leads to a comparable predictive performance and a drastic reduction in computational costs. Further, the compressed individual model with best average rank is a rule-based regression model. Thus, model compression also leads to benefits in terms of model interpretability. The experiments carried in this paper are fully reproducible.

Vitor Cerqueira, Luis Torgo, Carlos Soares

Evaluating predictive models is a crucial task in predictive analytics. This process is especially challenging with time series data where the observations show temporal dependencies. Several studies have analysed how different performance estimation methods compare with each other for approximating the true loss incurred by a given forecasting model. However, these studies do not address how the estimators behave for model selection: the ability to select the best solution among a set of alternatives. We address this issue and compare a set of estimation methods for model selection in time series forecasting tasks. We attempt to answer two main questions: (i) how often is the best possible model selected by the estimators; and (ii) what is the performance loss when it does not. We empirically found that the accuracy of the estimators for selecting the best solution is low, and the overall forecasting performance loss associated with the model selection process ranges from 1.2% to 2.3%. We also discovered that some factors, such as the sample size, are important in the relative performance of the estimators.

André F. Cruz, Pedro Saleiro, Catarina Belém et al.

Considerable research effort has been guided towards algorithmic fairness but real-world adoption of bias reduction techniques is still scarce. Existing methods are either metric- or model-specific, require access to sensitive attributes at inference time, or carry high development or deployment costs. This work explores the unfairness that emerges when optimizing ML models solely for predictive performance, and how to mitigate it with a simple and easily deployed intervention: fairness-aware hyperparameter optimization (HO). We propose and evaluate fairness-aware variants of three popular HO algorithms: Fair Random Search, Fair TPE, and Fairband. We validate our approach on a real-world bank account opening fraud case-study, as well as on three datasets from the fairness literature. Results show that, without extra training cost, it is feasible to find models with 111% mean fairness increase and just 6% decrease in performance when compared with fairness-blind HO.

Vitor Cerqueira, Luis Torgo, Carlos Soares

The early detection of anomalous events in time series data is essential in many domains of application. In this paper we deal with critical health events, which represent a significant cause of mortality in intensive care units of hospitals. The timely prediction of these events is crucial for mitigating their consequences and improving healthcare. One of the most common approaches to tackle early anomaly detection problems is standard classification methods. In this paper we propose a novel method that uses a layered learning architecture to address these tasks. One key contribution of our work is the idea of pre-conditional events, which denote arbitrary but computable relaxed versions of the event of interest. We leverage this idea to break the original problem into two hierarchical layers, which we hypothesize are easier to solve. The results suggest that the proposed approach leads to a better performance relative to state of the art approaches for critical health episode prediction.

Vitor Cerqueira, Nuno Moniz, Carlos Soares

Time series forecasting is a challenging task with applications in a wide range of domains. Auto-regression is one of the most common approaches to address these problems. Accordingly, observations are modelled by multiple regression using their past lags as predictor variables. We investigate the extension of auto-regressive processes using statistics which summarise the recent past dynamics of time series. The result of our research is a novel framework called VEST, designed to perform feature engineering using univariate and numeric time series automatically. The proposed approach works in three main steps. First, recent observations are mapped onto different representations. Second, each representation is summarised by statistical functions. Finally, a filter is applied for feature selection. We discovered that combining the features generated by VEST with auto-regression significantly improves forecasting performance. We provide evidence using 90 time series with high sampling frequency. VEST is publicly available online.

André F. Cruz, Pedro Saleiro, Catarina Belém et al.

Considerable research effort has been guided towards algorithmic fairness but there is still no major breakthrough. In practice, an exhaustive search over all possible techniques and hyperparameters is needed to find optimal fairness-accuracy trade-offs. Hence, coupled with the lack of tools for ML practitioners, real-world adoption of bias reduction methods is still scarce. To address this, we present Fairband, a bandit-based fairness-aware hyperparameter optimization (HO) algorithm. Fairband is conceptually simple, resource-efficient, easy to implement, and agnostic to both the objective metrics, model types and the hyperparameter space being explored. Moreover, by introducing fairness notions into HO, we enable seamless and efficient integration of fairness objectives into real-world ML pipelines. We compare Fairband with popular HO methods on four real-world decision-making datasets. We show that Fairband can efficiently navigate the fairness-accuracy trade-off through hyperparameter optimization. Furthermore, without extra training cost, it consistently finds configurations attaining substantially improved fairness at a comparatively small decrease in predictive accuracy.

Pedro Saleiro, Natasa Milic-Frayling, Eduarda Mendes Rodrigues et al.

Entity-Relationship (E-R) Search is a complex case of Entity Search where the goal is to search for multiple unknown entities and relationships connecting them. We assume that a E-R query can be decomposed as a sequence of sub-queries each containing keywords related to a specific entity or relationship. We adopt a probabilistic formulation of the E-R search problem. When creating specific representations for entities (e.g. context terms) and for pairs of entities (i.e. relationships) it is possible to create a graph of probabilistic dependencies between sub-queries and entity plus relationship representations. To the best of our knowledge this represents the first probabilistic model of E-R search. We propose and develop a novel supervised Early Fusion-based model for E-R search, the Entity-Relationship Dependence Model (ERDM). It uses Markov Random Field to model term dependencies of E-R sub-queries and entity/relationship documents. We performed experiments with more than 800M entities and relationships extractions from ClueWeb-09-B with FACC1 entity linking. We obtained promising results using 3 different query collections comprising 469 E-R queries, with results showing that it is possible to perform E-R search without using fix and pre-defined entity and relationship types, enabling a wide range of queries to be addressed.

Tiago Cunha, Carlos Soares, André C. P. L. F. de Carvalho

Algorithm selection using Metalearning aims to find mappings between problem characteristics (i.e. metafeatures) with relative algorithm performance to predict the best algorithm(s) for new datasets. Therefore, it is of the utmost importance that the metafeatures used are informative. In Collaborative Filtering, recent research has created an extensive collection of such metafeatures. However, since these are created based on the practitioner's understanding of the problem, they may not capture the most relevant aspects necessary to properly characterize the problem. We propose to overcome this problem by taking advantage of Representation Learning, which is able to create an alternative problem characterizations by having the data guide the design of the representation instead of the practitioner's opinion. Our hypothesis states that such alternative representations can be used to replace standard metafeatures, hence hence leading to a more robust approach to Metalearning. We propose a novel procedure specially designed for Collaborative Filtering algorithm selection. The procedure models Collaborative Filtering as graphs and extracts distributed representations using graph2vec. Experimental results show that the proposed procedure creates representations that are competitive with state-of-the-art metafeatures, while requiring significantly less data and without virtually any human input.

Adriano Rivolli, Luís P. F. Garcia, Carlos Soares et al.

Meta-learning is increasingly used to support the recommendation of machine learning algorithms and their configurations. Such recommendations are made based on meta-data, consisting of performance evaluations of algorithms on prior datasets, as well as characterizations of these datasets. These characterizations, also called meta-features, describe properties of the data which are predictive for the performance of machine learning algorithms trained on them. Unfortunately, despite being used in a large number of studies, meta-features are not uniformly described, organized and computed, making many empirical studies irreproducible and hard to compare. This paper aims to deal with this by systematizing and standardizing data characterization measures for classification datasets used in meta-learning. Moreover, it presents MFE, a new tool for extracting meta-features from datasets and identifying more subtle reproducibility issues in the literature, proposing guidelines for data characterization that strengthen reproducible empirical research in meta-learning.

Tiago Cunha, Carlos Soares, André C. P. L. F. de Carvalho

To select the best algorithm for a new problem is an expensive and difficult task. However, there are automatic solutions to address this problem: using Metalearning, which takes advantage of problem characteristics (i.e. metafeatures), one is able to predict the relative performance of algorithms. In the Collaborative Filtering scope, recent works have proposed diverse metafeatures describing several dimensions of this problem. Despite interesting and effective findings, it is still unknown whether these are the most effective metafeatures. Hence, this work proposes a new set of graph metafeatures, which approach the Collaborative Filtering problem from a Graph Theory perspective. Furthermore, in order to understand whether metafeatures from multiple dimensions are a better fit, we investigate the effects of comprehensive metafeatures. These metafeatures are a selection of the best metafeatures from all existing Collaborative Filtering metafeatures. The impact of the most representative metafeatures is investigated in a controlled experimental setup. Another contribution we present is the use of a Pareto-Efficient ranking procedure to create multicriteria metatargets. These new rankings of algorithms, which take into account multiple evaluation measures, allow to explore the algorithm selection problem in a fairer and more detailed way. According to the experimental results, the graph metafeatures are a good alternative to related work metafeatures. However, the results have shown that the feature selection procedure used to create the comprehensive metafeatures is is not effective, since there is no gain in predictive performance. Finally, an extensive metaknowledge analysis was conducted to identify the most influential metafeatures.

Arvind Kumar Shekar, Cláudio Rebelo de Sá, Hugo Ferreira et al.

Predicting the health of components in complex dynamic systems such as an automobile poses numerous challenges. The primary aim of such predictive systems is to use the high-dimensional data acquired from different sensors and predict the state-of-health of a particular component, e.g., brake pad. The classical approach involves selecting a smaller set of relevant sensor signals using feature selection and using them to train a machine learning algorithm. However, this fails to address two prominent problems: (1) sensors are susceptible to failure when exposed to extreme conditions over a long periods of time; (2) sensors are electrical devices that can be affected by noise or electrical interference. Using the failed and noisy sensor signals as inputs largely reduce the prediction accuracy. To tackle this problem, it is advantageous to use the information from all sensor signals, so that the failure of one sensor can be compensated by another. In this work, we propose an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) based framework to exploit the information from a large number of signals. Secondly, our framework introduces a data augmentation approach to perform accurate predictions in spite of noisy signals. The plausibility of our framework is validated on real life industrial application from Robert Bosch GmbH.

Tiago Cunha, Carlos Soares, André C. P. L. F. de Carvalho

Automatic solutions which enable the selection of the best algorithms for a new problem are commonly found in the literature. One research area which has recently received considerable efforts is Collaborative Filtering. Existing work includes several approaches using Metalearning, which relate the characteristics of datasets with the performance of the algorithms. This work explores an alternative approach to tackle this problem. Since, in essence, both are recommendation problems, this work uses Collaborative Filtering algorithms to select Collaborative Filtering algorithms. Our approach integrates subsampling landmarkers, which are a data characterization approach commonly used in Metalearning, with a standard Collaborative Filtering method. The experimental results show that CF4CF competes with standard Metalearning strategies in the problem of Collaborative Filtering algorithm selection.

Dylan te Lindert, Cláudio Rebelo de Sá, Carlos Soares et al.

The costs associated with refrigerator equipment often represent more than half of the total energy costs in supermarkets. This presents a good motivation for running these systems efficiently. In this study, we investigate different ways to construct a reference behavior, which can serve as a baseline for judging the performance of energy consumption. We used 3 distinct learning models: Multiple Linear Regression, Random Forests, and Artificial Neural Networks. During our experiments we used a variation of the sliding window method in combination with learning curves. We applied this approach on five different supermarkets, across Portugal. We are able to create baselines using off-the-shelf data mining techniques. Moreover, we found a way to create them based on short term historical data. We believe that our research will serve as a base for future studies, for which we provide interesting directions.

Pedro Saleiro, Luís Sarmento, Eduarda Mendes Rodrigues et al.

This paper describes a preliminary study for producing and distributing a large-scale database of embeddings from the Portuguese Twitter stream. We start by experimenting with a relatively small sample and focusing on three challenges: volume of training data, vocabulary size and intrinsic evaluation metrics. Using a single GPU, we were able to scale up vocabulary size from 2048 words embedded and 500K training examples to 32768 words over 10M training examples while keeping a stable validation loss and approximately linear trend on training time per epoch. We also observed that using less than 50\% of the available training examples for each vocabulary size might result in overfitting. Results on intrinsic evaluation show promising performance for a vocabulary size of 32768 words. Nevertheless, intrinsic evaluation metrics suffer from over-sensitivity to their corresponding cosine similarity thresholds, indicating that a wider range of metrics need to be developed to track progress.

Pedro Saleiro, Natasa Milic-Frayling, Eduarda Mendes Rodrigues et al.

We address the task of entity-relationship (E-R) retrieval, i.e, given a query characterizing types of two or more entities and relationships between them, retrieve the relevant tuples of related entities. Answering E-R queries requires gathering and joining evidence from multiple unstructured documents. In this work, we consider entity and relationships of any type, i.e, characterized by context terms instead of pre-defined types or relationships. We propose a novel IR-centric approach for E-R retrieval, that builds on the basic early fusion design pattern for object retrieval, to provide extensible entity-relationship representations, suitable for complex, multi-relationships queries. We performed experiments with Wikipedia articles as entity representations combined with relationships extracted from ClueWeb-09-B with FACC1 entity linking. We obtained promising results using 3 different query collections comprising 469 E-R queries.

Fábio Pinto, Vítor Cerqueira, Carlos Soares et al.

Machine Learning (ML) has been successfully applied to a wide range of domains and applications. One of the techniques behind most of these successful applications is Ensemble Learning (EL), the field of ML that gave birth to methods such as Random Forests or Boosting. The complexity of applying these techniques together with the market scarcity on ML experts, has created the need for systems that enable a fast and easy drop-in replacement for ML libraries. Automated machine learning (autoML) is the field of ML that attempts to answers these needs. Typically, these systems rely on optimization techniques such as bayesian optimization to lead the search for the best model. Our approach differs from these systems by making use of the most recent advances on metalearning and a learning to rank approach to learn from metadata. We propose autoBagging, an autoML system that automatically ranks 63 bagging workflows by exploiting past performance and dataset characterization. Results on 140 classification datasets from the OpenML platform show that autoBagging can yield better performance than the Average Rank method and achieve results that are not statistically different from an ideal model that systematically selects the best workflow for each dataset. For the purpose of reproducibility and generalizability, autoBagging is publicly available as an R package on CRAN.

Pedro Saleiro, Eduarda Mendes Rodrigues, Carlos Soares et al.

This paper presents the approach developed at the Faculty of Engineering of University of Porto, to participate in SemEval 2017, Task 5: Fine-grained Sentiment Analysis on Financial Microblogs and News. The task consisted in predicting a real continuous variable from -1.0 to +1.0 representing the polarity and intensity of sentiment concerning companies/stocks mentioned in short texts. We modeled the task as a regression analysis problem and combined traditional techniques such as pre-processing short texts, bag-of-words representations and lexical-based features with enhanced financial specific bag-of-embeddings. We used an external collection of tweets and news headlines mentioning companies/stocks from S\&P 500 to create financial word embeddings which are able to capture domain-specific syntactic and semantic similarities. The resulting approach obtained a cosine similarity score of 0.69 in sub-task 5.1 - Microblogs and 0.68 in sub-task 5.2 - News Headlines.

Pedro Saleiro, Jorge Teixeira, Carlos Soares et al.

We present a dynamic web tool that allows interactive search and visualization of large news archives using an entity-centric approach. Users are able to search entities using keyword phrases expressing news stories or events and the system retrieves the most relevant entities to the user query based on automatically extracted and indexed entity profiles. From the computational journalism perspective, TimeMachine allows users to explore media content through time using automatic identification of entity names, jobs, quotations and relations between entities from co-occurrences networks extracted from the news articles. TimeMachine demo is available at http://maquinadotempo.sapo.pt/