Warren Johnson

Warren Johnson, Charles Lee

The economics of prompt compression depend not only on reducing input tokens but on how compression changes output length, which is typically priced several times higher. We evaluate this in a pre-registered six-arm randomized controlled trial of prompt compression on production multi-agent task-orchestration, analyzing 358 successful Claude Sonnet 4.5 runs (59-61 per arm) drawn from a randomized corpus of 1,199 real orchestration instructions. We compare an uncompressed control with three uniform retention rates (r=0.8, 0.5, 0.2) and two structure-aware strategies (entropy-adaptive and recency-weighted), measuring total inference cost (input+output) and embedding-based response similarity. Moderate compression (r=0.5) reduced mean total cost by 27.9%, while aggressive compression (r=0.2) increased mean cost by 1.8% despite substantial input reduction, consistent with small mean output expansion (1.03x vs. control) and heavy-tailed uncertainty. Recency-weighted compression achieved 23.5% savings and, together with moderate compression, occupied the empirical cost-similarity Pareto frontier, whereas aggressive compression was dominated on both cost and similarity. These results show that "compress more" is not a reliable production heuristic and that output tokens must be treated as a first-class outcome when designing compression policies.

Warren Johnson

Prompt compression is often evaluated by input-token reduction, but its real deployment impact depends on how compression changes output length and total inference cost. We present a controlled replication and extension study of benchmark-dependent output dynamics under aggressive compression, covering 5,400 API calls across three benchmarks and multiple providers. To explain conflicting prior observations, we formalize instruction survival probability (Psi), a structural metric that captures whether task-critical prompt segments remain after truncation. Results show a strong benchmark effect: under r=0.3, DeepSeek exhibits severe output expansion on MBPP (56x, Psi approx 0.15) but substantially lower expansion on HumanEval (5x, Psi approx 0.72), while GPT-4o-mini is comparatively stable across benchmarks. This reconciles the apparent discrepancy between previously reported extreme explosion and lower replication effects by identifying prompt structure, not provider identity alone, as the primary moderator. We introduce the Compression Robustness Index (CRI) for cross-benchmark evaluation and show that single-benchmark assessments can produce misleading conclusions about compression safety and efficiency. To contextualize energy claims, we incorporate companion direct NVML measurements from rented RunPod GPUs and show that token savings can overstate joule savings. These findings motivate benchmark-diverse testing and structure-aware compression policies for reliable, energy-conscious LLM deployment.

Warren Johnson, Charles Lee

Selecting the appropriate model at inference time -- the routing problem -- requires jointly optimizing output quality, cost, latency, and governance constraints. Existing approaches delegate this decision to LLM-based classifiers or preference-trained routers that are themselves costly and high-latency, reducing a multi-objective optimization to single-dimensional quality prediction. We argue that small language models (SLMs, 1-4B parameters) have now achieved sufficient reasoning capability for sub-second, zero-marginal-cost, self-hosted task classification, potentially making the routing decision negligible in the inference budget. We test this thesis on a six-label taxonomy through two studies. Study 1 is a harmonized offline benchmark of Phi-3.5-mini, Qwen2.5-1.5B, and Qwen-2.5-3B on identical Azure T4 hardware, serving stack, quantization, and a fixed 60-case corpus. Qwen-2.5-3B achieves the best exact-match accuracy (0.783), the strongest latency-accuracy tradeoff, and the only nonzero accuracy on all six task families. Study 2 is a pre-registered four-arm randomized experiment under synthetic traffic with an effective sample size of 60 unique cases per arm, comparing Phi-4-mini, Qwen-2.5-3B, and DeepSeek-V3 against a no-routing control. DeepSeek-V3 attains the highest accuracy (0.830) but fails the pre-registered P95 latency gate (2,295 ms); Qwen-2.5-3B is Pareto-dominant among self-hosted models (0.793 accuracy, 988 ms median, $0 marginal cost). No model meets the standalone viability criterion (>=0.85 accuracy, <=2,000 ms P95). The cost and latency prerequisites for SLM-based routing are met; the accuracy gap of 6-8 percentage points and the untested question of whether correct classification translates to downstream output quality bound the remaining distance to production viability.

Warren Johnson

The rapid proliferation of Large Language Models has created an environmental paradox: the very technology that could help solve climate challenges is itself becoming a significant contributor to global carbon emissions. We test whether prompt compression improves inference energy efficiency in 28,421 successful API trials (28,428 planned) across three providers (OpenAI GPT-4o-mini, Anthropic Claude-3.5-Sonnet, and DeepSeek-Chat), five benchmarks (HumanEval, MBPP, GSM8K, MATH, MMLU), and four compression ratios (r in {1.0, 0.7, 0.5, 0.3}). Energy is estimated with a token-based proxy calibrated against local direct measurements, and quality is tracked with benchmark pass rates. Compression produced substantial quality loss (overall pass rate 26.0% at baseline vs. 1.5% at r=0.7) and strongly provider-dependent energy behavior. DeepSeek exhibited output expansion under compression (21 to 798 tokens at r=0.3), corresponding to energy increases up to +2,140%, while GPT-4o-mini showed mixed effects including a reduction at r=0.5. These results indicate that input-token reduction alone is not a reliable energy optimization strategy in production inference. For the evaluated settings, model selection and output-length control provided more consistent energy-quality tradeoffs than prompt compression.