Md Asif Raihan

Amanta Sherfenaz, Nazmul Haque, Protiva Sadhukhan Prova et al.

With rapid urbanization in recent decades, traffic congestion has intensified due to increased movement of people and goods. As planning shifts from demand-based to supply-oriented strategies, Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS) have become essential for managing traffic within existing infrastructure. A core ITS function is traffic forecasting, enabling proactive measures like ramp metering, signal control, and dynamic routing through platforms such as Google Maps. This study assesses the performance of statistical, machine learning (ML), and deep learning (DL) models in forecasting traffic speed and flow using real-world data from California's Harbor Freeway, sourced from the Caltrans Performance Measurement System (PeMS). Each model was evaluated over 20 forecasting windows (up to 1 hour 40 minutes) using RMSE, MAE, and R-Square metrics. Results show ANFIS-GP performs best at early windows with RMSE of 0.038, MAE of 0.0276, and R-Square of 0.9983, while Bi-LSTM is more robust for medium-term prediction due to its capacity to model long-range temporal dependencies, achieving RMSE of 0.1863, MAE of 0.0833, and R-Square of 0.987 at a forecasting of 20. The degradation in model performance was quantified using logarithmic transformation, with slope values used to measure robustness. Among DL models, Bi-LSTM had the flattest slope (0.0454 RMSE, 0.0545 MAE for flow), whereas ANFIS-GP had 0.1058 for RMSE and 0.1037 for flow MAE. The study concludes by identifying hybrid models as a promising future direction.

Md. Muhtashim Shahrier, Nazmul Haque, Md Asif Raihan et al.

As cities around the world aim to improve walkability and safety, understanding the irregular and unpredictable nature of pedestrian behavior has become increasingly important. This study introduces a data-driven framework for modeling chaotic pedestrian movement using empirically observed trajectory data and supervised learning. Videos were recorded during both daytime and nighttime conditions to capture pedestrian dynamics under varying ambient and traffic contexts. Pedestrian trajectories were extracted through computer vision techniques, and behavioral chaos was quantified using four chaos metrics: Approximate Entropy and Lyapunov Exponent, each computed for both velocity and direction change. A Principal Component Analysis (PCA) was then applied to consolidate these indicators into a unified chaos score. A comprehensive set of individual, group-level, and contextual traffic features was engineered and used to train Random Forest and CatBoost regression models. CatBoost models consistently achieved superior performance. The best daytime PCA-based CatBoost model reached an R^2 of 0.8319, while the nighttime PCA-based CatBoost model attained an R^2 of 0.8574. SHAP analysis highlighted that features such as distance travel, movement duration, and speed variability were robust contributors to chaotic behavior. The proposed framework enables practitioners to quantify and anticipate behavioral instability in real-world settings. Planners and engineers can use chaos scores to identify high-risk pedestrian zones, apprise infrastructure improvements, and calibrate realistic microsimulation models. The approach also supports adaptive risk assessment in automated vehicle systems by capturing short-term motion unpredictability grounded in observable, interpretable features.