Thomas B. Schön

Oskar Allerbo, Thomas B. Schön

We demonstrate how supervised learning can be decomposed into a two-stage procedure, where (1) all model parameters are selected in an unsupervised manner, and (2) the outputs y are added to the model, without changing the parameter values. This is achieved by a new model selection criterion that - in contrast to cross-validation - can be used also without access to y. For linear ridge regression, we bound the asymptotic out-of-sample risk of our method in terms of the optimal asymptotic risk. We also demonstrate that versions of linear and kernel ridge regression, smoothing splines, k-nearest neighbors, random forests, and neural networks, trained without access to y, perform similarly to their standard y-based counterparts. Hence, our results suggest that the difference between supervised and unsupervised learning is less fundamental than it may appear.

Abdullah Tokmak, Toni Karvonen, Thomas B. Schön et al.

Uncertainty quantification is essential when deploying learning-based control methods in safety-critical systems. This is commonly realized by constructing uncertainty tubes that enclose the unknown function of interest, e.g., the reward and constraint functions or the underlying dynamics model, with high probability. However, existing approaches for uncertainty quantification typically rely on restrictive assumptions on the unknown function, such as known bounds on functional norms or Lipschitz constants, and struggle with discontinuities. In this paper, we model the unknown function as a random function from which independent and identically distributed realizations can be generated, and construct uncertainty tubes via the scenario approach that hold with high probability and rely solely on the sampled realizations. We integrate these uncertainty tubes into a safe Bayesian optimization algorithm, which we then use to safely tune control parameters on a real Furuta pendulum.