David McCoy

David McCoy, Yulun Wu, Zachary Butzin-Dozier

This position paper challenges the "scaling fundamentalism" dominating AI research, where unbounded growth in model size and computation has led to unsustainable environmental impacts and widening resource inequality. We argue that LLM development should be fundamentally reoriented toward capability-per-resource rather than capability alone. We present a theoretical framework demonstrating that resource-allocation decisions guided by gradient influence patterns can dramatically improve efficiency throughout the AI lifecycle. Our analysis shows that in transformer-based models, where a small fraction of parameters exert outsized influence (following heavy-tailed distributions), three critical insights emerge: (1) updating only high-influence parameters strictly outperforms full-parameter tuning on a performance-per-resource basis; (2) simple gradient norms provide computationally efficient proxies for identifying these high-influence components; and (3) coordinated parameter and data selection yields multiplicative efficiency gains, potentially reducing resource requirements by orders of magnitude. Building on these theoretical foundations, we propose a two stage paradigm marginal-return pretraining for foundation developers and influence guided adaptation for downstream users bridged by gradient blueprints, metadata describing which parameters matter most for various tasks. This capability-per-resource perspective transforms what were once considered pragmatic hardware workarounds into theoretically optimal strategies, democratizing access to cutting-edge AI capabilities while significantly reducing environmental impact. By embedding resource consciousness into how we develop, adapt, and evaluate models, we can reshape AI progress toward a more sustainable and equitable future.

Yi Li, David Mccoy, Nolan Gunter et al.

Modern deep neural networks are powerful predictive tools yet often lack valid inference for causal parameters, such as treatment effects or entire survival curves. While frameworks like Double Machine Learning (DML) and Targeted Maximum Likelihood Estimation (TMLE) can debias machine-learning fits, existing neural implementations either rely on "targeted losses" that do not guarantee solving the efficient influence function equation or computationally expensive post-hoc "fluctuations" for multi-parameter settings. We propose Targeted Deep Architectures (TDA), a new framework that embeds TMLE directly into the network's parameter space with no restrictions on the backbone architecture. Specifically, TDA partitions model parameters - freezing all but a small "targeting" subset - and iteratively updates them along a targeting gradient, derived from projecting the influence functions onto the span of the gradients of the loss with respect to weights. This procedure yields plug-in estimates that remove first-order bias and produce asymptotically valid confidence intervals. Crucially, TDA easily extends to multi-dimensional causal estimands (e.g., entire survival curves) by merging separate targeting gradients into a single universal targeting update. Theoretically, TDA inherits classical TMLE properties, including double robustness and semiparametric efficiency. Empirically, on the benchmark IHDP dataset (average treatment effects) and simulated survival data with informative censoring, TDA reduces bias and improves coverage relative to both standard neural-network estimators and prior post-hoc approaches. In doing so, TDA establishes a direct, scalable pathway toward rigorous causal inference within modern deep architectures for complex multi-parameter targets.