Raquel Aoki

Sadegh Mahdavi, Raquel Aoki, Keyi Tang et al.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have shown remarkable performance in various natural language tasks, but they often struggle with planning problems that require structured reasoning. To address this limitation, the conversion of planning problems into the Planning Domain Definition Language (PDDL) has been proposed as a potential solution, enabling the use of automated planners. However, generating accurate PDDL files typically demands human inputs or correction, which can be time-consuming and costly. In this paper, we propose a novel approach that leverages LLMs and environment feedback to automatically generate PDDL domain and problem description files without the need for human intervention. Our method introduces an iterative refinement process that generates multiple problem PDDL candidates and progressively refines the domain PDDL based on feedback obtained from interacting with the environment. To guide the refinement process, we develop an Exploration Walk (EW) metric, which provides rich feedback signals for LLMs to update the PDDL file. We evaluate our approach on $10$ PDDL environments. We achieve an average task solve rate of 66% compared to a 29% solve rate by GPT-4's intrinsic planning with chain-of-thought prompting. Our work enables the automated modeling of planning environments using LLMs and environment feedback, eliminating the need for human intervention in the PDDL translation process and paving the way for more reliable LLM agents in challenging problems. Our code is available at https://github.com/BorealisAI/llm-pddl-planning

Raquel Aoki, Martin Ester

Many methods have been proposed to estimate treatment effects with observational data. Often, the choice of the method considers the application's characteristics, such as type of treatment and outcome, confounding effect, and the complexity of the data. These methods implicitly assume that the sample size is large enough to train such models, especially the neural network-based estimators. What if this is not the case? In this work, we propose Causal-Batle, a methodology to estimate treatment effects in small high-dimensional datasets in the presence of another high-dimensional dataset in the same feature space. We adopt an approach that brings transfer learning techniques into causal inference. Our experiments show that such an approach helps to bring stability to neural network-based methods and improve the treatment effect estimates in small high-dimensional datasets.

Adam Bayley, Xiaodan Zhu, Raquel Aoki et al.

The recent advancement of Large Language Models (LLMs) offers new opportunities to generate user preference data to warm-start bandits. Recent studies on contextual bandits with LLM initialization (CBLI) have shown that these synthetic priors can significantly lower early regret. However, these findings assume that LLM-generated choices are reasonably aligned with actual user preferences. In this paper, we systematically examine how LLM-generated preferences perform when random and label-flipping noise is injected into the synthetic training data. For aligned domains, we find that warm-starting remains effective up to 30% corruption, loses its advantage around 40%, and degrades performance beyond 50%. When there is systematic misalignment, even without added noise, LLM-generated priors can lead to higher regret than a cold-start bandit. To explain these behaviors, we develop a theoretical analysis that decomposes the effect of random label noise and systematic misalignment on the prior error driving the bandit's regret, and derive a sufficient condition under which LLM-based warm starts are provably better than a cold-start bandit. We validate these results across multiple conjoint datasets and LLMs, showing that estimated alignment reliably tracks when warm-starting improves or degrades recommendation quality.

Raquel Aoki, Yizhou Chen, Martin Ester

This work proposes the M3E2, a multi-task learning neural network model to estimate the effect of multiple treatments. In contrast to existing methods, M3E2 can handle multiple treatment effects applied simultaneously to the same unit, continuous and binary treatments, and many covariates. We compared M3E2 with three baselines in three synthetic benchmark datasets: two with multiple treatments and one with one treatment. Our analysis showed that our method has superior performance, making more assertive estimations of the multiple treatment effects.

Raquel Aoki, Frederick Tung, Gabriel L. Oliveira

Predicting multiple heterogeneous biological and medical targets is a challenge for traditional deep learning models. In contrast to single-task learning, in which a separate model is trained for each target, multi-task learning (MTL) optimizes a single model to predict multiple related targets simultaneously. To address this challenge, we propose the Multi-gate Mixture-of-Experts with Exclusivity (MMoEEx). Our work aims to tackle the heterogeneous MTL setting, in which the same model optimizes multiple tasks with different characteristics. Such a scenario can overwhelm current MTL approaches due to the challenges in balancing shared and task-specific representations and the need to optimize tasks with competing optimization paths. Our method makes two key contributions: first, we introduce an approach to induce more diversity among experts, thus creating representations more suitable for highly imbalanced and heterogenous MTL learning; second, we adopt a two-step optimization [6, 11] approach to balancing the tasks at the gradient level. We validate our method on three MTL benchmark datasets, including Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care (MIMIC-III) and PubChem BioAssay (PCBA).

Raquel Aoki, Martin Ester

Methods for causal inference from observational data are an alternative for scenarios where collecting counterfactual data or realizing a randomized experiment is not possible. Adopting a stacking approach, our proposed method ParKCA combines the results of several causal inference methods to learn new causes in applications with some known causes and many potential causes. We validate ParKCA in two Genome-wide association studies, one real-world and one simulated dataset. Our results show that ParKCA can infer more causes than existing methods.

Raquel YS Aoki, Renato M Assuncao, Pedro OS Vaz de Melo

Predicting the outcome of sports events is a hard task. We quantify this difficulty with a coefficient that measures the distance between the observed final results of sports leagues and idealized perfectly balanced competitions in terms of skill. This indicates the relative presence of luck and skill. We collected and analyzed all games from 198 sports leagues comprising 1503 seasons from 84 countries of 4 different sports: basketball, soccer, volleyball and handball. We measured the competitiveness by countries and sports. We also identify in each season which teams, if removed from its league, result in a completely random tournament. Surprisingly, not many of them are needed. As another contribution of this paper, we propose a probabilistic graphical model to learn about the teams' skills and to decompose the relative weights of luck and skill in each game. We break down the skill component into factors associated with the teams' characteristics. The model also allows to estimate as 0.36 the probability that an underdog team wins in the NBA league, with a home advantage adding 0.09 to this probability. As shown in the first part of the paper, luck is substantially present even in the most competitive championships, which partially explains why sophisticated and complex feature-based models hardly beat simple models in the task of forecasting sports' outcomes.