Elizabeth Dietrich

Varun Madabushi, Elizabeth Dietrich, Hanna Krasowski et al.

Poincare return maps are a fundamental tool for analyzing periodic orbits in hybrid dynamical systems, including legged locomotion, power electronics, and other cyber-physical systems with switching behavior. The Poincare return map captures the evolution of the hybrid system on a guard surface, reducing the stability analysis of a periodic orbit to that of a discrete-time system. While linearization provides local stability information, assessing robustness to disturbances requires identifying invariant sets of the state space under the return dynamics. However, computing such invariant sets is computationally difficult, especially when system dynamics are only available through forward simulation. In this work, we propose an algorithmic framework leveraging sampling-based optimization to compute a finite-step invariant ellipsoid around a nominal periodic orbit using sampled evaluations of the return map. The resulting solution is accompanied by probabilistic guarantees on finite-step invariance satisfying a user-defined accuracy threshold. We demonstrate the approach on two low-dimensional systems and a compass-gait walking model.

Elizabeth Dietrich, Hanna Krasowski, Murat Arcak

Reachability analysis evaluates system safety, by identifying the set of states a system may evolve within over a finite time horizon. In contrast to model-based reachability analysis, data-driven reachability analysis estimates reachable sets and derives probabilistic guarantees directly from data. Several popular techniques for validating reachable sets -- conformal prediction, scenario optimization, and the holdout method -- admit similar Probably Approximately Correct (PAC) guarantees. We establish a formal connection between these PAC bounds and present an empirical case study on reachable sets to illustrate the computational and sample trade-offs associated with these methods. We argue that despite the formal relationship between these techniques, subtle differences arise in both the interpretation of guarantees and the parameterization. As a result, these methods are not generally interchangeable. We conclude with practical advice on the usage of these methods.

Elizabeth Dietrich, Hanna Krasowski, Vegard Flovik et al.

We study the problem of statistically certifying viable initial sets (VISs) -- sets of initial conditions whose trajectories satisfy a given control specification. While VISs can be obtained from model-based methods, these methods typically rely on simplified models. We propose a simulation-based framework to certify VISs by estimating the probability of specification violations under a high-fidelity or black-box model. Since detecting these violations may be challenging due to their scarcity, we propose a sample-efficient framework that leverages importance sampling to target high-risk regions. We derive an empirical Bernstein inequality for weighted random variables, enabling finite-sample guarantees for importance sampling estimators. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach on two systems and show improved convergence of the resulting bounds on an Adaptive Cruise Control benchmark.