George Whittle

Clarisse Wibault, Johannes Forkel, Sebastian Towers et al.

Mean Field Games (MFGs) provide a principled framework for modeling interactions in large population models: at scale, population dynamics become deterministic, with uncertainty entering only through aggregate shocks, or common noise. However, algorithmic progress has been limited since model-free methods are too high variance and exact methods scale poorly. Recent Hybrid Structural Methods (HSMs) use Monte Carlo rollouts for the common noise in combination with exact estimation of the expected return, conditioned on those samples. However, HSMs have not been scaled to Partially Observable settings. We propose Recurrent Structural Policy Gradient (RSPG), the first history-aware HSM for settings involving public information. We also introduce MFAX, our JAX-based framework for MFGs. By leveraging known transition dynamics, RSPG achieves state-of-the-art performance as well as an order-of-magnitude faster convergence and solves, for the first time, a macroeconomics MFG with heterogeneous agents, common noise and history-aware policies. MFAX is publicly available at: https://github.com/CWibault/mfax.

George Whittle, Pranav Vaidhyanathan, Juliusz Ziomek et al.

Wide neural networks in the feature-learning regime drive modern deep learning, and yet they remain far less studied than their kernel-regime counterparts. We consider a critical yet under-explored difference between these two regimes: the regulariser and prior implied by gradient flow training. This canonical regularisation property is well-studied in kernel regime networks -- of all the infinite global minima, gradient flow selects exactly the vanishing ridge solution -- and underpins the celebrated NN-GP correspondence, precisely allowing the modelling of noise during training. However, we prove ridge regularisation biases gradient flow in feature-learning regime networks, even in the infinitesimal limit of vanishing regularisation. Over training, ridge distorts the inductive bias of the network, with a particular damage done to pretrained networks where the implicit prior is informative. We resolve this by axiomatising the canonical regulariser as a regime-agnostic function-space energy and lift, which uniquely identifies ridge in the kernel regime, and crucially generalises to the feature-learning regime. By studying the Riemannian geometry of feature-learning networks, we derive geodesic ridge from our framework, generalising ridge to the feature-learning regime. Correspondingly, we prove the canonical function-space prior is a Riemannian Gibbs Process, generalising the more familiar Gaussian Process. As a practical contribution, we propose arc ridge as a minimax-robust, scalable surrogate to geodesic ridge, revealing a deep relationship between early stopping and canonical regularisation across learning regimes. Finally, we demonstrate the consequences of our theory empirically on both image processing and NLP transfer-learning problems.

George Whittle, Juliusz Ziomek, Jacob Rawling et al. · oxford

While Bayesian inference provides a principled framework for reasoning under uncertainty, its widespread adoption is limited by the intractability of exact posterior computation, necessitating the use of approximate inference. However, existing methods are often computationally expensive, or demand costly retraining when priors change, limiting their utility, particularly in sequential inference problems such as real-time sensor fusion. To address these challenges, we introduce the Distribution Transformer -- a novel architecture that can learn arbitrary distribution-to-distribution mappings. Our method can be trained to map a prior to the corresponding posterior, conditioned on some dataset -- thus performing approximate Bayesian inference. Our novel architecture represents a prior distribution as a (universally-approximating) Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM), and transforms it into a GMM representation of the posterior. The components of the GMM attend to each other via self-attention, and to the datapoints via cross-attention. We demonstrate that Distribution Transformers both maintain flexibility to vary the prior, and significantly reduces computation times-from minutes to milliseconds-while achieving log-likelihood performance on par with or superior to existing approximate inference methods across tasks such as sequential inference, quantum system parameter inference, and Gaussian Process predictive posterior inference with hyperpriors.

Juliusz Ziomek, George Whittle, Michael A. Osborne · oxford

In spite of their prevalence, the behaviour of Neural Networks when extrapolating far from the training distribution remains poorly understood, with existing results limited to specific cases. In this work, we prove general results -- the first of their kind -- by applying Neural Tangent Kernel (NTK) theory to analyse infinitely-wide neural networks trained until convergence and prove that the inclusion of just one Layer Norm (LN) fundamentally alters the induced NTK, transforming it into a bounded-variance kernel. As a result, the output of an infinitely wide network with at least one LN remains bounded, even on inputs far from the training data. In contrast, we show that a broad class of networks without LN can produce pathologically large outputs for certain inputs. We support these theoretical findings with empirical experiments on finite-width networks, demonstrating that while standard NNs often exhibit uncontrolled growth outside the training domain, a single LN layer effectively mitigates this instability. Finally, we explore real-world implications of this extrapolatory stability, including applications to predicting residue sizes in proteins larger than those seen during training and estimating age from facial images of underrepresented ethnicities absent from the training set.