James Booth

Yixiao Lin, James Booth

Machine learning models often inherit biases from historical data, raising critical concerns about fairness and accountability. Conventional fairness interventions typically require access to sensitive attributes like gender or race, but privacy and legal restrictions frequently limit their use. To address this challenge, we propose a framework that infers sensitive attributes from auxiliary features and integrates fairness constraints into model training. Our approach mitigates bias while preserving predictive accuracy, offering a practical solution for fairness-aware learning. Empirical evaluations validate its effectiveness, contributing to the advancement of more equitable algorithmic decision-making.

Orhun Vural, Abdulaziz Ahmed, Ferhat Zengul et al.

Overcrowding in emergency departments (ED) remains a persistent operational challenge worldwide, causing delays in care delivery and downstream congestion. ED boarding time, defined as the duration admitted patients remain in the ED while awaiting inpatient bed placement, is a key indicator of this congestion. Predicting ED boarding time in advance enables proactive operational decision making before congestion escalates. We developed and evaluated a multi-horizon time series forecasting framework to predict ED boarding time at 6, 8, 10, 12, and 24-hour horizons. Real-world data from a university-affiliated urban hospital in the United States were utilized and integrated with external contextual data sources, including weather, holidays, and major local events. Decomposition-based Linear (DLinear) and Normalization-based Linear (NLinear) time series forecasting deep learning models showed superior performance across multiple horizons. Models were also evaluated under extreme congestion scenarios characterized by elevated boarding times. In addition, a Machine Learning Operations (MLOps) web application prototype was developed to support translation of the forecasting framework into practice through integrated data ingestion, forecast visualization, experimentation, and retraining.

James Booth, Epameinondas Antonakos, Stylianos Ploumpis et al.

3D Morphable Models (3DMMs) are powerful statistical models of 3D facial shape and texture, and among the state-of-the-art methods for reconstructing facial shape from single images. With the advent of new 3D sensors, many 3D facial datasets have been collected containing both neutral as well as expressive faces. However, all datasets are captured under controlled conditions. Thus, even though powerful 3D facial shape models can be learnt from such data, it is difficult to build statistical texture models that are sufficient to reconstruct faces captured in unconstrained conditions ("in-the-wild"). In this paper, we propose the first, to the best of our knowledge, "in-the-wild" 3DMM by combining a powerful statistical model of facial shape, which describes both identity and expression, with an "in-the-wild" texture model. We show that the employment of such an "in-the-wild" texture model greatly simplifies the fitting procedure, because there is no need to optimize with regards to the illumination parameters. Furthermore, we propose a new fast algorithm for fitting the 3DMM in arbitrary images. Finally, we have captured the first 3D facial database with relatively unconstrained conditions and report quantitative evaluations with state-of-the-art performance. Complementary qualitative reconstruction results are demonstrated on standard "in-the-wild" facial databases. An open source implementation of our technique is released as part of the Menpo Project.

Orhun Vural, Bunyamin Ozaydin, Khalid Y. Aram et al.

Background: Emergency department (ED) overcrowding remains a major challenge, causing delays in care and increased operational strain. Hospital management often reacts to congestion after it occurs. Machine learning predictive modeling offers a proactive approach by forecasting patient flow metrics, such as waiting count, to improve resource planning and hospital efficiency. Objective: This study develops machine learning models to predict ED waiting room occupancy at two time scales. The hourly model forecasts the waiting count six hours ahead (e.g., a 1 PM prediction for 7 PM), while the daily model estimates the average waiting count for the next 24 hours (e.g., a 5 PM prediction for the following day's average). These tools support staffing decisions and enable earlier interventions to reduce overcrowding. Methods: Data from a partner hospital's ED in the southeastern United States were used, integrating internal metrics and external features. Eleven machine learning algorithms, including traditional and deep learning models, were trained and evaluated. Feature combinations were optimized, and performance was assessed across varying patient volumes and hours. Results: TSiTPlus achieved the best hourly prediction (MAE: 4.19, MSE: 29.32). The mean hourly waiting count was 18.11, with a standard deviation of 9.77. Accuracy varied by hour, with MAEs ranging from 2.45 (11 PM) to 5.45 (8 PM). Extreme case analysis at one, two, and three standard deviations above the mean showed MAEs of 6.16, 10.16, and 15.59, respectively. For daily predictions, XCMPlus performed best (MAE: 2.00, MSE: 6.64), with a daily mean of 18.11 and standard deviation of 4.51. Conclusions: These models accurately forecast ED waiting room occupancy and support proactive resource allocation. Their implementation has the potential to improve patient flow and reduce overcrowding in emergency care settings.

Junxuan Li, Rawal Khirodkar, Chengan He et al.

High-quality 3D avatar modeling faces a critical trade-off between fidelity and generalization. On the one hand, multi-view studio data enables high-fidelity modeling of humans with precise control over expressions and poses, but it struggles to generalize to real-world data due to limited scale and the domain gap between the studio environment and the real world. On the other hand, recent large-scale avatar models trained on millions of in-the-wild samples show promise for generalization across a wide range of identities, yet the resulting avatars are often of low-quality due to inherent 3D ambiguities. To address this, we present Large-Scale Codec Avatars (LCA), a high-fidelity, full-body 3D avatar model that generalizes to world-scale populations in a feedforward manner, enabling efficient inference. Inspired by the success of large language models and vision foundation models, we present, for the first time, a pre/post-training paradigm for 3D avatar modeling at scale: we pretrain on 1M in-the-wild videos to learn broad priors over appearance and geometry, then post-train on high-quality curated data to enhance expressivity and fidelity. LCA generalizes across hair styles, clothing, and demographics while providing precise, fine-grained facial expressions and finger-level articulation control, with strong identity preservation. Notably, we observe emergent generalization to relightability and loose garment support to unconstrained inputs, and zero-shot robustness to stylized imagery, despite the absence of direct supervision.

Orhun Vural, Bunyamin Ozaydin, James Booth et al.

This study presents a deep learning-based framework for predicting emergency department (ED) boarding counts six hours in advance using only operational and contextual data, without patient-level information. Data from ED tracking systems, inpatient census, weather, holidays, and local events were aggregated hourly and processed with comprehensive feature engineering. The mean ED boarding count was 28.7 (standard deviation = 11.2). Multiple deep learning models, including ResNetPlus, TSTPlus, and TSiTPlus, were trained and optimized using Optuna, with TSTPlus achieving the best results (mean absolute error = 4.30, mean squared error = 29.47, R2 = 0.79). The framework accurately forecasted boarding counts, including during extreme periods, and demonstrated that broader input features improve predictive accuracy. This approach supports proactive hospital management and offers a practical method for mitigating ED overcrowding.

Irina Gaynanova, James Booth, Martin T. Wells

We investigate the difference between using an $\ell_1$ penalty versus an $\ell_1$ constraint in generalized eigenvalue problems, such as principal component analysis and discriminant analysis. Our main finding is that an $\ell_1$ penalty may fail to provide very sparse solutions; a severe disadvantage for variable selection that can be remedied by using an $\ell_1$ constraint. Our claims are supported both by empirical evidence and theoretical analysis. Finally, we illustrate the advantages of an $\ell_1$ constraint in the context of discriminant analysis and principal component analysis.