Frank Wood

Christian Weilbach, William Harvey, Frank Wood

We introduce a framework for automatically defining and learning deep generative models with problem-specific structure. We tackle problem domains that are more traditionally solved by algorithms such as sorting, constraint satisfaction for Sudoku, and matrix factorization. Concretely, we train diffusion models with an architecture tailored to the problem specification. This problem specification should contain a graphical model describing relationships between variables, and often benefits from explicit representation of subcomputations. Permutation invariances can also be exploited. Across a diverse set of experiments we improve the scaling relationship between problem dimension and our model's performance, in terms of both training time and final accuracy. Our code can be found at https://github.com/plai-group/gsdm.

William Harvey, Saeid Naderiparizi, Vaden Masrani et al.

We present a framework for video modeling based on denoising diffusion probabilistic models that produces long-duration video completions in a variety of realistic environments. We introduce a generative model that can at test-time sample any arbitrary subset of video frames conditioned on any other subset and present an architecture adapted for this purpose. Doing so allows us to efficiently compare and optimize a variety of schedules for the order in which frames in a long video are sampled and use selective sparse and long-range conditioning on previously sampled frames. We demonstrate improved video modeling over prior work on a number of datasets and sample temporally coherent videos over 25 minutes in length. We additionally release a new video modeling dataset and semantically meaningful metrics based on videos generated in the CARLA autonomous driving simulator.

Matthew Niedoba, Jonathan Wilder Lavington, Yunpeng Liu et al.

Simulation of autonomous vehicle systems requires that simulated traffic participants exhibit diverse and realistic behaviors. The use of prerecorded real-world traffic scenarios in simulation ensures realism but the rarity of safety critical events makes large scale collection of driving scenarios expensive. In this paper, we present DJINN - a diffusion based method of generating traffic scenarios. Our approach jointly diffuses the trajectories of all agents, conditioned on a flexible set of state observations from the past, present, or future. On popular trajectory forecasting datasets, we report state of the art performance on joint trajectory metrics. In addition, we demonstrate how DJINN flexibly enables direct test-time sampling from a variety of valuable conditional distributions including goal-based sampling, behavior-class sampling, and scenario editing.

Andreas Munk, Alexander Mead, Frank Wood

We consider the problem of performing Bayesian inference in probabilistic models where observations are accompanied by uncertainty, referred to as "uncertain evidence." We explore how to interpret uncertain evidence, and by extension the importance of proper interpretation as it pertains to inference about latent variables. We consider a recently-proposed method "distributional evidence" as well as revisit two older methods: Jeffrey's rule and virtual evidence. We devise guidelines on how to account for uncertain evidence and we provide new insights, particularly regarding consistency. To showcase the impact of different interpretations of the same uncertain evidence, we carry out experiments in which one interpretation is defined as "correct." We then compare inference results from each different interpretation illustrating the importance of careful consideration of uncertain evidence.

Berend Zwartsenberg, Adam Ścibior, Matthew Niedoba et al.

We present a novel, conditional generative probabilistic model of set-valued data with a tractable log density. This model is a continuous normalizing flow governed by permutation equivariant dynamics. These dynamics are driven by a learnable per-set-element term and pairwise interactions, both parametrized by deep neural networks. We illustrate the utility of this model via applications including (1) complex traffic scene generation conditioned on visually specified map information, and (2) object bounding box generation conditioned directly on images. We train our model by maximizing the expected likelihood of labeled conditional data under our flow, with the aid of a penalty that ensures the dynamics are smooth and hence efficiently solvable. Our method significantly outperforms non-permutation invariant baselines in terms of log likelihood and domain-specific metrics (offroad, collision, and combined infractions), yielding realistic samples that are difficult to distinguish from real data.

Vasileios Lioutas, Jonathan Wilder Lavington, Justice Sefas et al.

We introduce CriticSMC, a new algorithm for planning as inference built from a composition of sequential Monte Carlo with learned Soft-Q function heuristic factors. These heuristic factors, obtained from parametric approximations of the marginal likelihood ahead, more effectively guide SMC towards the desired target distribution, which is particularly helpful for planning in environments with hard constraints placed sparsely in time. Compared with previous work, we modify the placement of such heuristic factors, which allows us to cheaply propose and evaluate large numbers of putative action particles, greatly increasing inference and planning efficiency. CriticSMC is compatible with informative priors, whose density function need not be known, and can be used as a model-free control algorithm. Our experiments on collision avoidance in a high-dimensional simulated driving task show that CriticSMC significantly reduces collision rates at a low computational cost while maintaining realism and diversity of driving behaviors across vehicles and environment scenarios.

William Harvey, Frank Wood

Recent progress with conditional image diffusion models has been stunning, and this holds true whether we are speaking about models conditioned on a text description, a scene layout, or a sketch. Unconditional image diffusion models are also improving but lag behind, as do diffusion models which are conditioned on lower-dimensional features like class labels. We propose to close the gap between conditional and unconditional models using a two-stage sampling procedure. In the first stage we sample an embedding describing the semantic content of the image. In the second stage we sample the image conditioned on this embedding and then discard the embedding. Doing so lets us leverage the power of conditional diffusion models on the unconditional generation task, which we show improves FID by 25-50% compared to standard unconditional generation.

Saeid Naderiparizi, Xiaoxuan Liang, Setareh Cohan et al.

Score-based diffusion models are a powerful class of generative models, widely utilized across diverse domains. Despite significant advancements in large-scale tasks such as text-to-image generation, their application to constrained domains has received considerably less attention. This work addresses model learning in a setting where, in addition to the training dataset, there further exists side-information in the form of an oracle that can label samples as being outside the support of the true data generating distribution. Specifically we develop a new denoising diffusion probabilistic modeling methodology, Gen-neG, that leverages this additional side-information. Gen-neG builds on classifier guidance in diffusion models to guide the generation process towards the positive support region indicated by the oracle. We empirically establish the utility of Gen-neG in applications including collision avoidance in self-driving simulators and safety-guarded human motion generation.

Yunpeng Liu, Jonathan Wilder Lavington, Adam Scibior et al.

We develop a generic mechanism for generating vehicle-type specific sequences of waypoints from a probabilistic foundation model of driving behavior. Many foundation behavior models are trained on data that does not include vehicle information, which limits their utility in downstream applications such as planning. Our novel methodology conditionally specializes such a behavior predictive model to a vehicle-type by utilizing byproducts of the reinforcement learning algorithms used to produce vehicle specific controllers. We show how to compose a vehicle specific value function estimate with a generic probabilistic behavior model to generate vehicle-type specific waypoint sequences that are more likely to be physically plausible then their vehicle-agnostic counterparts.

Matthew Niedoba, Berend Zwartsenberg, Frank Wood

The neural-network denoising functions which form the backbone of image diffusion models are remarkably consistent in their generalization behaviour across a wide variety of network architectures and training procedure hyperparameters. A recent line of research has sought to model the outputs of these networks by aggregating posterior weighted averages of training dataset patches. In this work, we consolidate these approaches into a unified model class which we call Filtered Posterior Mean Collections (FPMCs). We define this model class using query precision vectors, response weights, and source distributions, and illustrate that existing methods are recoverable with specific choices of these design axes. Investigating each axis in turn, we find that FPMC performance can be improved with soft relaxations of prior patch-based methods, and through augmentations of source distributions. Applying these findings to an existing FPMC, we demonstrate consistent sample improvement across three natural image datasets.

Jason Yoo, Frank Wood

Associative memory plays an important role in human intelligence and its mechanisms have been linked to attention in machine learning. While the machine learning community's interest in associative memories has recently been rekindled, most work has focused on memory recall ($read$) over memory learning ($write$). In this paper, we present BayesPCN, a hierarchical associative memory capable of performing continual one-shot memory writes without meta-learning. Moreover, BayesPCN is able to gradually forget past observations ($forget$) to free its memory. Experiments show that BayesPCN can recall corrupted i.i.d. high-dimensional data observed hundreds to a thousand ``timesteps'' ago without a large drop in recall ability compared to the state-of-the-art offline-learned parametric memory models.

Ryan Fayyazi, Christian Weilbach, Frank Wood

Inter-neuron communication delays are ubiquitous in physically realized neural networks such as biological neural circuits and neuromorphic hardware. These delays have significant and often disruptive consequences on network dynamics during training and inference. It is therefore essential that communication delays be accounted for, both in computational models of biological neural networks and in large-scale neuromorphic systems. Nonetheless, communication delays have yet to be comprehensively addressed in either domain. In this paper, we first show that delays prevent state-of-the-art continuous-time neural networks called Latent Equilibrium (LE) networks from learning even simple tasks despite significant overparameterization. We then propose to compensate for communication delays by predicting future signals based on currently available ones. This conceptually straightforward approach, which we call prospective messaging (PM), uses only neuron-local information, and is flexible in terms of memory and computation requirements. We demonstrate that incorporating PM into delayed LE networks prevents reaction lags, and facilitates successful learning on Fourier synthesis and autoregressive video prediction tasks.

Jason Yoo, Tony Joseph, Dylan Yung et al.

There are currently many barriers that prevent non-experts from exploiting machine learning solutions ranging from the lack of intuition on statistical learning techniques to the trickiness of hyperparameter tuning. Such barriers have led to an explosion of interest in automated machine learning (AutoML), whereby an off-the-shelf system can take care of many of the steps for end-users without the need for expertise in machine learning. This paper presents Ensemble Squared (Ensemble$^2$), an AutoML system that ensembles the results of state-of-the-art open-source AutoML systems. Ensemble$^2$ exploits the diversity of existing AutoML systems by leveraging the differences in their model search space and heuristics. Empirically, we show that diversity of each AutoML system is sufficient to justify ensembling at the AutoML system level. In demonstrating this, we also establish new state-of-the-art AutoML results on the OpenML tabular classification benchmark.

Peyman Bateni, Jarred Barber, Jan-Willem van de Meent et al.

We develop a transductive meta-learning method that uses unlabelled instances to improve few-shot image classification performance. Our approach combines a regularized Mahalanobis-distance-based soft k-means clustering procedure with a modified state of the art neural adaptive feature extractor to achieve improved test-time classification accuracy using unlabelled data. We evaluate our method on transductive few-shot learning tasks, in which the goal is to jointly predict labels for query (test) examples given a set of support (training) examples. We achieve state of the art performance on the Meta-Dataset, mini-ImageNet and tiered-ImageNet benchmarks. All trained models and code have been made publicly available at github.com/plai-group/simple-cnaps.

Chia-Hong Hsu, Frank Wood

Flow-based image generative models exhibit stable training and produce high quality samples when using multi-step sampling procedures. One-step generative models can produce high quality image samples but can be difficult to optimize as they often exhibit unstable training dynamics. Meanflow models exhibit excellent few-step sampling performance and tantalizing one-step sampling performance. Notably, MeanFlow models that achieve this have required extremely large training budgets. We significantly decrease the amount of computation and data budget it takes to train Meanflow models by noting and exploiting a particular discretization of the Meanflow objective that yields a consistency property which we formulate into a ``Discrete Meanflow'' (DMF) Training Curriculum. Initialized with a pretrained Flow Model, DMF curriculum reaches one-step FID 3.36 on CIFAR-10 in only 2000 epochs. We anticipate that faster training curriculums of Meanflow models, specifically those fine-tuned from existing Flow Models, drives efficient training methods of future one-step examples.

Manuel Gloeckler, Michael Deistler, Christian Weilbach et al.

Amortized Bayesian inference trains neural networks to solve stochastic inference problems using model simulations, thereby making it possible to rapidly perform Bayesian inference for any newly observed data. However, current simulation-based amortized inference methods are simulation-hungry and inflexible: They require the specification of a fixed parametric prior, simulator, and inference tasks ahead of time. Here, we present a new amortized inference method -- the Simformer -- which overcomes these limitations. By training a probabilistic diffusion model with transformer architectures, the Simformer outperforms current state-of-the-art amortized inference approaches on benchmark tasks and is substantially more flexible: It can be applied to models with function-valued parameters, it can handle inference scenarios with missing or unstructured data, and it can sample arbitrary conditionals of the joint distribution of parameters and data, including both posterior and likelihood. We showcase the performance and flexibility of the Simformer on simulators from ecology, epidemiology, and neuroscience, and demonstrate that it opens up new possibilities and application domains for amortized Bayesian inference on simulation-based models.

Laura Manduchi, Clara Meister, Kushagra Pandey et al.

The field of deep generative modeling has grown rapidly in the last few years. With the availability of massive amounts of training data coupled with advances in scalable unsupervised learning paradigms, recent large-scale generative models show tremendous promise in synthesizing high-resolution images and text, as well as structured data such as videos and molecules. However, we argue that current large-scale generative AI models exhibit several fundamental shortcomings that hinder their widespread adoption across domains. In this work, our objective is to identify these issues and highlight key unresolved challenges in modern generative AI paradigms that should be addressed to further enhance their capabilities, versatility, and reliability. By identifying these challenges, we aim to provide researchers with insights for exploring fruitful research directions, thus fostering the development of more robust and accessible generative AI solutions.

Matthew Niedoba, Berend Zwartsenberg, Kevin Murphy et al.

We propose a simple, training-free mechanism which explains the generalization behaviour of diffusion models. By comparing pre-trained diffusion models to their theoretically optimal empirical counterparts, we identify a shared local inductive bias across a variety of network architectures. From this observation, we hypothesize that network denoisers generalize through localized denoising operations, as these operations approximate the training objective well over much of the training distribution. To validate our hypothesis, we introduce novel denoising algorithms which aggregate local empirical denoisers to replicate network behaviour. Comparing these algorithms to network denoisers across forward and reverse diffusion processes, our approach exhibits consistent visual similarity to neural network outputs, with lower mean squared error than previously proposed methods.

Jason Yoo, Yunpeng Liu, Frank Wood et al.

In online continual learning, a neural network incrementally learns from a non-i.i.d. data stream. Nearly all online continual learning methods employ experience replay to simultaneously prevent catastrophic forgetting and underfitting on past data. Our work demonstrates a limitation of this approach: neural networks trained with experience replay tend to have unstable optimization trajectories, impeding their overall accuracy. Surprisingly, these instabilities persist even when the replay buffer stores all previous training examples, suggesting that this issue is orthogonal to catastrophic forgetting. We minimize these instabilities through a simple modification of the optimization geometry. Our solution, Layerwise Proximal Replay (LPR), balances learning from new and replay data while only allowing for gradual changes in the hidden activation of past data. We demonstrate that LPR consistently improves replay-based online continual learning methods across multiple problem settings, regardless of the amount of available replay memory.

Jonathan Wilder Lavington, Ke Zhang, Vasileios Lioutas et al.

The training, testing, and deployment, of autonomous vehicles requires realistic and efficient simulators. Moreover, because of the high variability between different problems presented in different autonomous systems, these simulators need to be easy to use, and easy to modify. To address these problems we introduce TorchDriveSim and its benchmark extension TorchDriveEnv. TorchDriveEnv is a lightweight reinforcement learning benchmark programmed entirely in Python, which can be modified to test a number of different factors in learned vehicle behavior, including the effect of varying kinematic models, agent types, and traffic control patterns. Most importantly unlike many replay based simulation approaches, TorchDriveEnv is fully integrated with a state of the art behavioral simulation API. This allows users to train and evaluate driving models alongside data driven Non-Playable Characters (NPC) whose initializations and driving behavior are reactive, realistic, and diverse. We illustrate the efficiency and simplicity of TorchDriveEnv by evaluating common reinforcement learning baselines in both training and validation environments. Our experiments show that TorchDriveEnv is easy to use, but difficult to solve.

Saeid Naderiparizi, Xiaoxuan Liang, Berend Zwartsenberg et al.

In this paper we describe a novel framework for diffusion-based generative modeling on constrained spaces. In particular, we introduce manual bridges, a framework that expands the kinds of constraints that can be practically used to form so-called diffusion bridges. We develop a mechanism for combining multiple such constraints so that the resulting multiply-constrained model remains a manual bridge that respects all constraints. We also develop a mechanism for training a diffusion model that respects such multiple constraints while also adapting it to match a data distribution. We develop and extend theory demonstrating the mathematical validity of our mechanisms. Additionally, we demonstrate our mechanism in constrained generative modeling tasks, highlighting a particular high-value application in modeling trajectory initializations for path planning and control in autonomous vehicles.

Matthew Niedoba, Dylan Green, Saeid Naderiparizi et al.

Score function estimation is the cornerstone of both training and sampling from diffusion generative models. Despite this fact, the most commonly used estimators are either biased neural network approximations or high variance Monte Carlo estimators based on the conditional score. We introduce a novel nearest neighbour score function estimator which utilizes multiple samples from the training set to dramatically decrease estimator variance. We leverage our low variance estimator in two compelling applications. Training consistency models with our estimator, we report a significant increase in both convergence speed and sample quality. In diffusion models, we show that our estimator can replace a learned network for probability-flow ODE integration, opening promising new avenues of future research.

Dylan Green, William Harvey, Saeid Naderiparizi et al.

Current state-of-the-art methods for video inpainting typically rely on optical flow or attention-based approaches to inpaint masked regions by propagating visual information across frames. While such approaches have led to significant progress on standard benchmarks, they struggle with tasks that require the synthesis of novel content that is not present in other frames. In this paper, we reframe video inpainting as a conditional generative modeling problem and present a framework for solving such problems with conditional video diffusion models. We introduce inpainting-specific sampling schemes which capture crucial long-range dependencies in the context, and devise a novel method for conditioning on the known pixels in incomplete frames. We highlight the advantages of using a generative approach for this task, showing that our method is capable of generating diverse, high-quality inpaintings and synthesizing new content that is spatially, temporally, and semantically consistent with the provided context.

Yingchen He, Christian D. Weilbach, Martyna E. Wojciechowska et al.

Advances in deep generative modelling have made it increasingly plausible to train human-level embodied agents. Yet progress has been limited by the absence of large-scale, real-time, multi-modal, and socially interactive datasets that reflect the sensory-motor complexity of natural environments. To address this, we present PLAICraft, a novel data collection platform and dataset capturing multiplayer Minecraft interactions across five time-aligned modalities: video, game output audio, microphone input audio, mouse, and keyboard actions. Each modality is logged with millisecond time precision, enabling the study of synchronous, embodied behaviour in a rich, open-ended world. The dataset comprises over 10,000 hours of gameplay from more than 10,000 global participants.\footnote{We have done a privacy review for the public release of an initial 200-hour subset of the dataset, with plans to release most of the dataset over time.} Alongside the dataset, we provide an evaluation suite for benchmarking model capabilities in object recognition, spatial awareness, language grounding, and long-term memory. PLAICraft opens a path toward training and evaluating agents that act fluently and purposefully in real time, paving the way for truly embodied artificial intelligence.

Yunpeng Liu, Matthew Niedoba, William Harvey et al.

Realistic driving simulation requires that NPCs not only mimic natural driving behaviors but also react to the behavior of other simulated agents. Recent developments in diffusion-based scenario generation focus on creating diverse and realistic traffic scenarios by jointly modelling the motion of all the agents in the scene. However, these traffic scenarios do not react when the motion of agents deviates from their modelled trajectories. For example, the ego-agent can be controlled by a stand along motion planner. To produce reactive scenarios with joint scenario models, the model must regenerate the scenario at each timestep based on new observations in a Model Predictive Control (MPC) fashion. Although reactive, this method is time-consuming, as one complete possible future for all NPCs is generated per simulation step. Alternatively, one can utilize an autoregressive model (AR) to predict only the immediate next-step future for all NPCs. Although faster, this method lacks the capability for advanced planning. We present a rolling diffusion based traffic scene generation model which mixes the benefits of both methods by predicting the next step future and simultaneously predicting partially noised further future steps at the same time. We show that such model is efficient compared to diffusion model based AR, achieving a beneficial compromise between reactivity and computational efficiency.

Vasileios Lioutas, Adam Scibior, Matthew Niedoba et al.

Simulating realistic driving behavior is crucial for developing and testing autonomous systems in complex traffic environments. Equally important is the ability to control the behavior of simulated agents to tailor scenarios to specific research needs and safety considerations. This paper extends the general-purpose multi-agent driving behavior model ITRA (Scibior et al., 2021), by introducing a method called Control-ITRA to influence agent behavior through waypoint assignment and target speed modulation. By conditioning agents on these two aspects, we provide a mechanism for them to adhere to specific trajectories and indirectly adjust their aggressiveness. We compare different approaches for integrating these conditions during training and demonstrate that our method can generate controllable, infraction-free trajectories while preserving realism in both seen and unseen locations.

Jason Yoo, Yingchen He, Saeid Naderiparizi et al.

This work demonstrates that training autoregressive video diffusion models from a single video stream$\unicode{x2013}$resembling the experience of embodied agents$\unicode{x2013}$is not only possible, but can also be as effective as standard offline training given the same number of gradient steps. Our work further reveals that this main result can be achieved using experience replay methods that only retain a subset of the preceding video stream. To support training and evaluation in this setting, we introduce four new datasets for streaming lifelong generative video modeling: Lifelong Bouncing Balls, Lifelong 3D Maze, Lifelong Drive, and Lifelong PLAICraft, each consisting of one million consecutive frames from environments of increasing complexity.

Setareh Dabiri, Vasileios Lioutas, Berend Zwartsenberg et al.

When training object detection models on synthetic data, it is important to make the distribution of synthetic data as close as possible to the distribution of real data. We investigate specifically the impact of object placement distribution, keeping all other aspects of synthetic data fixed. Our experiment, training a 3D vehicle detection model in CARLA and testing on KITTI, demonstrates a substantial improvement resulting from improving the object placement distribution.

Yunpeng Liu, Vasileios Lioutas, Jonathan Wilder Lavington et al.

The development of algorithms that learn multi-agent behavioral models using human demonstrations has led to increasingly realistic simulations in the field of autonomous driving. In general, such models learn to jointly predict trajectories for all controlled agents by exploiting road context information such as drivable lanes obtained from manually annotated high-definition (HD) maps. Recent studies show that these models can greatly benefit from increasing the amount of human data available for training. However, the manual annotation of HD maps which is necessary for every new location puts a bottleneck on efficiently scaling up human traffic datasets. We propose an aerial image-based map (AIM) representation that requires minimal annotation and provides rich road context information for traffic agents like pedestrians and vehicles. We evaluate multi-agent trajectory prediction using the AIM by incorporating it into a differentiable driving simulator as an image-texture-based differentiable rendering module. Our results demonstrate competitive multi-agent trajectory prediction performance especially for pedestrians in the scene when using our AIM representation as compared to models trained with rasterized HD maps.

Atılım Güneş Baydin, Barak A. Pearlmutter, Don Syme et al.

Using backpropagation to compute gradients of objective functions for optimization has remained a mainstay of machine learning. Backpropagation, or reverse-mode differentiation, is a special case within the general family of automatic differentiation algorithms that also includes the forward mode. We present a method to compute gradients based solely on the directional derivative that one can compute exactly and efficiently via the forward mode. We call this formulation the forward gradient, an unbiased estimate of the gradient that can be evaluated in a single forward run of the function, entirely eliminating the need for backpropagation in gradient descent. We demonstrate forward gradient descent in a range of problems, showing substantial savings in computation and enabling training up to twice as fast in some cases.

Michael Teng, Michiel van de Panne, Frank Wood

Distributional reinforcement learning (RL) aims to learn a value-network that predicts the full distribution of the returns for a given state, often modeled via a quantile-based critic. This approach has been successfully integrated into common RL methods for continuous control, giving rise to algorithms such as Distributional Soft Actor-Critic (DSAC). In this paper, we introduce multi-sample target values (MTV) for distributional RL, as a principled replacement for single-sample target value estimation, as commonly employed in current practice. The improved distributional estimates further lend themselves to UCB-based exploration. These two ideas are combined to yield our distributional RL algorithm, E2DC (Extra Exploration with Distributional Critics). We evaluate our approach on a range of continuous control tasks and demonstrate state-of-the-art model-free performance on difficult tasks such as Humanoid control. We provide further insight into the method via visualization and analysis of the learned distributions and their evolution during training.

Peyman Bateni, Jarred Barber, Raghav Goyal et al.

Modern deep learning requires large-scale extensively labelled datasets for training. Few-shot learning aims to alleviate this issue by learning effectively from few labelled examples. In previously proposed few-shot visual classifiers, it is assumed that the feature manifold, where classifier decisions are made, has uncorrelated feature dimensions and uniform feature variance. In this work, we focus on addressing the limitations arising from this assumption by proposing a variance-sensitive class of models that operates in a low-label regime. The first method, Simple CNAPS, employs a hierarchically regularized Mahalanobis-distance based classifier combined with a state of the art neural adaptive feature extractor to achieve strong performance on Meta-Dataset, mini-ImageNet and tiered-ImageNet benchmarks. We further extend this approach to a transductive learning setting, proposing Transductive CNAPS. This transductive method combines a soft k-means parameter refinement procedure with a two-step task encoder to achieve improved test-time classification accuracy using unlabelled data. Transductive CNAPS achieves state of the art performance on Meta-Dataset. Finally, we explore the use of our methods (Simple and Transductive) for "out of the box" continual and active learning. Extensive experiments on large scale benchmarks illustrate robustness and versatility of this, relatively speaking, simple class of models. All trained model checkpoints and corresponding source codes have been made publicly available.

Vaden Masrani, Rob Brekelmans, Thang Bui et al.

Many common machine learning methods involve the geometric annealing path, a sequence of intermediate densities between two distributions of interest constructed using the geometric average. While alternatives such as the moment-averaging path have demonstrated performance gains in some settings, their practical applicability remains limited by exponential family endpoint assumptions and a lack of closed form energy function. In this work, we introduce $q$-paths, a family of paths which is derived from a generalized notion of the mean, includes the geometric and arithmetic mixtures as special cases, and admits a simple closed form involving the deformed logarithm function from nonextensive thermodynamics. Following previous analysis of the geometric path, we interpret our $q$-paths as corresponding to a $q$-exponential family of distributions, and provide a variational representation of intermediate densities as minimizing a mixture of $α$-divergences to the endpoints. We show that small deviations away from the geometric path yield empirical gains for Bayesian inference using Sequential Monte Carlo and generative model evaluation using Annealed Importance Sampling.

Adam Ścibior, Frank Wood

Particle filters are not compatible with automatic differentiation due to the presence of discrete resampling steps. While known estimators for the score function, based on Fisher's identity, can be computed using particle filters, up to this point they required manual implementation. In this paper we show that such estimators can be computed using automatic differentiation, after introducing a simple correction to the particle weights. This correction utilizes the stop-gradient operator and does not modify the particle filter operation on the forward pass, while also being cheap and easy to compute. Surprisingly, with the same correction automatic differentiation also produces good estimators for gradients of expectations under the posterior. We can therefore regard our method as a general recipe for making particle filters differentiable. We additionally show that it produces desired estimators for second-order derivatives and how to extend it to further reduce variance at the expense of additional computation.

Adam Scibior, Vasileios Lioutas, Daniele Reda et al.

We develop a deep generative model built on a fully differentiable simulator for multi-agent trajectory prediction. Agents are modeled with conditional recurrent variational neural networks (CVRNNs), which take as input an ego-centric birdview image representing the current state of the world and output an action, consisting of steering and acceleration, which is used to derive the subsequent agent state using a kinematic bicycle model. The full simulation state is then differentiably rendered for each agent, initiating the next time step. We achieve state-of-the-art results on the INTERACTION dataset, using standard neural architectures and a standard variational training objective, producing realistic multi-modal predictions without any ad-hoc diversity-inducing losses. We conduct ablation studies to examine individual components of the simulator, finding that both the kinematic bicycle model and the continuous feedback from the birdview image are crucial for achieving this level of performance. We name our model ITRA, for "Imagining the Road Ahead".

William Harvey, Saeid Naderiparizi, Frank Wood

We present a conditional variational auto-encoder (VAE) which, to avoid the substantial cost of training from scratch, uses an architecture and training objective capable of leveraging a foundation model in the form of a pretrained unconditional VAE. To train the conditional VAE, we only need to train an artifact to perform amortized inference over the unconditional VAE's latent variables given a conditioning input. We demonstrate our approach on tasks including image inpainting, for which it outperforms state-of-the-art GAN-based approaches at faithfully representing the inherent uncertainty. We conclude by describing a possible application of our inpainting model, in which it is used to perform Bayesian experimental design for the purpose of guiding a sensor.

Andrew Warrington, J. Wilder Lavington, Adam Ścibior et al.

Policies for partially observed Markov decision processes can be efficiently learned by imitating policies for the corresponding fully observed Markov decision processes. Unfortunately, existing approaches for this kind of imitation learning have a serious flaw: the expert does not know what the trainee cannot see, and so may encourage actions that are sub-optimal, even unsafe, under partial information. We derive an objective to instead train the expert to maximize the expected reward of the imitating agent policy, and use it to construct an efficient algorithm, adaptive asymmetric DAgger (A2D), that jointly trains the expert and the agent. We show that A2D produces an expert policy that the agent can safely imitate, in turn outperforming policies learned by imitating a fixed expert.

Rob Brekelmans, Vaden Masrani, Thang Bui et al.

Annealed importance sampling (AIS) is the gold standard for estimating partition functions or marginal likelihoods, corresponding to importance sampling over a path of distributions between a tractable base and an unnormalized target. While AIS yields an unbiased estimator for any path, existing literature has been primarily limited to the geometric mixture or moment-averaged paths associated with the exponential family and KL divergence. We explore AIS using $q$-paths, which include the geometric path as a special case and are related to the homogeneous power mean, deformed exponential family, and $α$-divergence.

Vu Nguyen, Vaden Masrani, Rob Brekelmans et al.

Achieving the full promise of the Thermodynamic Variational Objective (TVO), a recently proposed variational lower bound on the log evidence involving a one-dimensional Riemann integral approximation, requires choosing a "schedule" of sorted discretization points. This paper introduces a bespoke Gaussian process bandit optimization method for automatically choosing these points. Our approach not only automates their one-time selection, but also dynamically adapts their positions over the course of optimization, leading to improved model learning and inference. We provide theoretical guarantees that our bandit optimization converges to the regret-minimizing choice of integration points. Empirical validation of our algorithm is provided in terms of improved learning and inference in Variational Autoencoders and Sigmoid Belief Networks.

Saeid Naderiparizi, Kenny Chiu, Benjamin Bloem-Reddy et al.

We explore the effects of architecture and training objective choice on amortized posterior predictive inference in probabilistic conditional generative models. We aim this work to be a counterpoint to a recent trend in the literature that stresses achieving good samples when the amount of conditioning data is large. We instead focus our attention on the case where the amount of conditioning data is small. We highlight specific architecture and objective choices that we find lead to qualitative and quantitative improvement to posterior inference in this low data regime. Specifically we explore the effects of choices of pooling operator and variational family on posterior quality in neural processes. Superior posterior predictive samples drawn from our novel neural process architectures are demonstrated via image completion/in-painting experiments.

Andreas Munk, William Harvey, Frank Wood

Some of the most popular methods for improving the stability and performance of GANs involve constraining or regularizing the discriminator. In this paper we consider a largely overlooked regularization technique which we refer to as the Adversary's Assistant (AdvAs). We motivate this using a different perspective to that of prior work. Specifically, we consider a common mismatch between theoretical analysis and practice: analysis often assumes that the discriminator reaches its optimum on each iteration. In practice, this is essentially never true, often leading to poor gradient estimates for the generator. To address this, AdvAs is a theoretically motivated penalty imposed on the generator based on the norm of the gradients used to train the discriminator. This encourages the generator to move towards points where the discriminator is optimal. We demonstrate the effect of applying AdvAs to several GAN objectives, datasets and network architectures. The results indicate a reduction in the mismatch between theory and practice and that AdvAs can lead to improvement of GAN training, as measured by FID scores.

Rob Brekelmans, Vaden Masrani, Frank Wood et al.

The recently proposed Thermodynamic Variational Objective (TVO) leverages thermodynamic integration to provide a family of variational inference objectives, which both tighten and generalize the ubiquitous Evidence Lower Bound (ELBO). However, the tightness of TVO bounds was not previously known, an expensive grid search was used to choose a "schedule" of intermediate distributions, and model learning suffered with ostensibly tighter bounds. In this work, we propose an exponential family interpretation of the geometric mixture curve underlying the TVO and various path sampling methods, which allows us to characterize the gap in TVO likelihood bounds as a sum of KL divergences. We propose to choose intermediate distributions using equal spacing in the moment parameters of our exponential family, which matches grid search performance and allows the schedule to adaptively update over the course of training. Finally, we derive a doubly reparameterized gradient estimator which improves model learning and allows the TVO to benefit from more refined bounds. To further contextualize our contributions, we provide a unified framework for understanding thermodynamic integration and the TVO using Taylor series remainders.

Michael Teng, Tuan Anh Le, Adam Scibior et al.

We introduce a novel objective for training deep generative time-series models with discrete latent variables for which supervision is only sparsely available. This instance of semi-supervised learning is challenging for existing methods, because the exponential number of possible discrete latent configurations results in high variance gradient estimators. We first overcome this problem by extending the standard semi-supervised generative modeling objective with reweighted wake-sleep. However, we find that this approach still suffers when the frequency of available labels varies between training sequences. Finally, we introduce a unified objective inspired by teacher-forcing and show that this approach is robust to variable length supervision. We call the resulting method caffeinated wake-sleep (CWS) to emphasize its additional dependence on real data. We demonstrate its effectiveness with experiments on MNIST, handwriting, and fruit fly trajectory data.

Frank Wood, Andrew Warrington, Saeid Naderiparizi et al.

In this work we demonstrate how to automate parts of the infectious disease-control policy-making process via performing inference in existing epidemiological models. The kind of inference tasks undertaken include computing the posterior distribution over controllable, via direct policy-making choices, simulation model parameters that give rise to acceptable disease progression outcomes. Among other things, we illustrate the use of a probabilistic programming language that automates inference in existing simulators. Neither the full capabilities of this tool for automating inference nor its utility for planning is widely disseminated at the current time. Timely gains in understanding about how such simulation-based models and inference automation tools applied in support of policymaking could lead to less economically damaging policy prescriptions, particularly during the current COVID-19 pandemic.

Andrew Warrington, Saeid Naderiparizi, Frank Wood

Deterministic models are approximations of reality that are easy to interpret and often easier to build than stochastic alternatives. Unfortunately, as nature is capricious, observational data can never be fully explained by deterministic models in practice. Observation and process noise need to be added to adapt deterministic models to behave stochastically, such that they are capable of explaining and extrapolating from noisy data. We investigate and address computational inefficiencies that arise from adding process noise to deterministic simulators that fail to return for certain inputs; a property we describe as "brittle." We show how to train a conditional normalizing flow to propose perturbations such that the simulator succeeds with high probability, increasing computational efficiency.

Peyman Bateni, Raghav Goyal, Vaden Masrani et al.

Few-shot learning is a fundamental task in computer vision that carries the promise of alleviating the need for exhaustively labeled data. Most few-shot learning approaches to date have focused on progressively more complex neural feature extractors and classifier adaptation strategies, as well as the refinement of the task definition itself. In this paper, we explore the hypothesis that a simple class-covariance-based distance metric, namely the Mahalanobis distance, adopted into a state of the art few-shot learning approach (CNAPS) can, in and of itself, lead to a significant performance improvement. We also discover that it is possible to learn adaptive feature extractors that allow useful estimation of the high dimensional feature covariances required by this metric from surprisingly few samples. The result of our work is a new "Simple CNAPS" architecture which has up to 9.2% fewer trainable parameters than CNAPS and performs up to 6.1% better than state of the art on the standard few-shot image classification benchmark dataset.

William Harvey, Andreas Munk, Atılım Güneş Baydin et al.

We present a new approach to automatic amortized inference in universal probabilistic programs which improves performance compared to current methods. Our approach is a variation of inference compilation (IC) which leverages deep neural networks to approximate a posterior distribution over latent variables in a probabilistic program. A challenge with existing IC network architectures is that they can fail to model long-range dependencies between latent variables. To address this, we introduce an attention mechanism that attends to the most salient variables previously sampled in the execution of a probabilistic program. We demonstrate that the addition of attention allows the proposal distributions to better match the true posterior, enhancing inference about latent variables in simulators.

Andreas Munk, Berend Zwartsenberg, Adam Ścibior et al.

We present a framework for automatically structuring and training fast, approximate, deep neural surrogates of stochastic simulators. Unlike traditional approaches to surrogate modeling, our surrogates retain the interpretable structure and control flow of the reference simulator. Our surrogates target stochastic simulators where the number of random variables itself can be stochastic and potentially unbounded. Our framework further enables an automatic replacement of the reference simulator with the surrogate when undertaking amortized inference. The fidelity and speed of our surrogates allow for both faster stochastic simulation and accurate and substantially faster posterior inference. Using an illustrative yet non-trivial example we show our surrogates' ability to accurately model a probabilistic program with an unbounded number of random variables. We then proceed with an example that shows our surrogates are able to accurately model a complex structure like an unbounded stack in a program synthesis example. We further demonstrate how our surrogate modeling technique makes amortized inference in complex black-box simulators an order of magnitude faster. Specifically, we do simulator-based materials quality testing, inferring safety-critical latent internal temperature profiles of composite materials undergoing curing.

Saeid Naderiparizi, Adam Ścibior, Andreas Munk et al.

Naive approaches to amortized inference in probabilistic programs with unbounded loops can produce estimators with infinite variance. This is particularly true of importance sampling inference in programs that explicitly include rejection sampling as part of the user-programmed generative procedure. In this paper we develop a new and efficient amortized importance sampling estimator. We prove finite variance of our estimator and empirically demonstrate our method's correctness and efficiency compared to existing alternatives on generative programs containing rejection sampling loops and discuss how to implement our method in a generic probabilistic programming framework.

Renhao Wang, Adam Scibior, Frank Wood

Imitation learning is a promising approach to end-to-end training of autonomous vehicle controllers. Typically the driving process with such approaches is entirely automatic and black-box, although in practice it is desirable to control the vehicle through high-level commands, such as telling it which way to go at an intersection. In existing work this has been accomplished by the application of a branched neural architecture, since directly providing the command as an additional input to the controller often results in the command being ignored. In this work we overcome this limitation by learning a disentangled probabilistic latent variable model that generates the steering commands. We achieve faithful command-conditional generation without using a branched architecture and demonstrate improved stability of the controller, applying only a variational objective without any domain-specific adjustments. On top of that, we extend our model with an additional latent variable and augment the dataset to train a controller that is robust to unsafe commands, such as asking it to turn into a wall. The main contribution of this work is a recipe for building controllable imitation driving agents that improves upon multiple aspects of the current state of the art relating to robustness and interpretability.