Carlo Ciancarelli

Luca Sosta, Carlo Ciancarelli, Leonardo Marini et al.

Reconstructing a thermal model capable of efficiently simulating the behavior of a spacecraft from sparse and localized temperature measurements remains a challenging task. To address this, we introduce a physically-constrained calibration framework for Lumped Parameter Thermal Models (LPTMs), formulated as a trajectory-based inverse problem for graph dynamical systems. The model reconstructs thermal dynamics directly from temperature measurements and known inputs, without relying on a priori parameter values derived from material properties or geometric assumptions. Physical admissibility is enforced at the parameterization level: positivity of nodal coefficients and symmetry of conductive interactions are imposed by construction. This guarantees stable dynamics and restricts the identification problem to a physically meaningful parameter space, improving conditioning without the need of additional regularization. The identification problem is addressed through trajectory matching, ensuring stable rollout over extended time horizons. The methodology is validated on synthetic datasets generated from high-fidelity finite element simulations under progressively complex forcing conditions. The calibrated LPTMs accurately reproduce long-term temperature evolution and exhibit robustness to measurement noise. The proposed framework provides a systematic approach to the calibration of reduced-order thermal models by combining physical structure with data-driven identification. The numerical results show a favorable balance between accuracy and computational efficiency, making the models suitable for integration in spacecraft thermal Digital Twin applications.

Lorenzo Capelli, Leandro de Souza Rosa, Maurizio De Tommasi et al.

The increasing autonomy of spacecraft demands fault-detection systems that are both reliable and explainable. This work addresses eXplainable Artificial Intelligence for onboard Fault Detection, Isolation and Recovery within the Attitude and Orbit Control Subsystem by introducing a framework that enhances interpretability in neural anomaly detectors. We propose a method to derive low-dimensional, semantically annotated encodings from intermediate neural activations, called peepholes. Applied to a convolutional autoencoder, the framework produces interpretable indicators that enable the identification and localization of anomalies in reaction-wheel telemetry. Peepholes analysis further reveals bias detection and supports fault localization. The proposed framework enables the semantic characterization of detected anomalies while requiring only a marginal increase in computational resources, thus supporting its feasibility for on-board deployment.