Oleg Solozobov

Oleg Solozobov

Agentic AI systems produce decision evidence at scale through execution telemetry, but property-level reconstruction often fails when an external party asks a specific governance question about a specific decision: the assembled evidence is insufficient to answer it. We name this pattern the container fallacy: the automatic equation of evidence-container presence with audit sufficiency. This paper specifies the Decision Evidence Maturity Model (DEMM), a property-level reconstructability method for agentic decisions. DEMM classifies evidence sufficiency into four executable categories plus a protocol-level "conflicting" category and aggregates per-property verdicts into a five-level capability rubric anchored to the established maturity-model lineage. The open-source Decision Trace Reconstructor ships ten executable adapter-fallback classes spanning vendor SDKs, protocol traces, public-postmortem prose, and generic JSONL records. A reproducible feasibility exercise runs the protocol on 140 synthetic scenarios plus three public incidents; the resulting completeness range (53.6% to 100%) is implementation behaviour, not external validation.

Oleg Solozobov

Risk decision systems in fraud detection and credit scoring operate under structural label absence: ground truth arrives weeks to months after decisions are made. During this blind period, model performance may degrade silently, eroding the governance evidence that justifies automated decisions. Existing drift detection methods either require labels (supervised detectors) or detect statistical change without distinguishing harmful degradation from benign distributional evolution (unsupervised detectors). No existing framework integrates drift detection with governance evidence assessment and operational response. This paper presents a label-free governance monitoring extension to the Governance Drift Toolkit that produces governance alerts rather than statistical alarms. The monitoring architecture applies composite multi-proxy monitoring across four proxy monitors (score distribution, feature drift, prediction entropy, confidence distribution), with governance-calibrated thresholds. Empirical evaluation on the Lending Club credit scoring dataset (1.37M loans, 11 years) demonstrates three findings. First, raw proxy metrics (Feature PSI delta up to 1.84, Score PSI delta up to 0.92) distinguish injected covariate degradation from natural temporal drift in an offline evaluation setting. Second, pure concept drift in P(Y|X) produces exactly zero delta across all proxy metrics in all windows, confirming the irreducible blind spot of label-free monitoring as a structural verification. Third, the composite score provides monotonic severity progression as more monitors trigger (0.583 to 0.833 to 1.000), enabling graduated governance response. Cross-domain comparison with IEEE-CIS fraud detection results shows the detectable/undetectable boundary is consistent across both domains. The toolkit and evaluation code are available as open-source artifacts.

Oleg Solozobov

Agentic AI failures need post-hoc reconstruction: what the agent did, on whose authority, against which policy, and from what reasoning. Cross-regime feasibility remains unmeasured under one property-level schema. We apply the Decision Trace Reconstructor unmodified to pinned worked-example anchors from six public vendor SDK regimes spanning cloud-agent, observability, tool-use, telemetry, and protocol traces, plus two comparator columns. Each Decision Event Schema (DES) property is classified as fully fillable, partially fillable, structurally unfillable, or opaque. Per-property reconstructability of an agent decision already varies between regimes at this anchor scale. Strict-governance-completeness separates into three tiers ranging from 42.9% to 85.7%, yielding one regime-independent gap (reasoning trace), four regime-dependent gaps, and one Mixed property; the pilot is single-annotator, one anchor per cell, descriptive, with outputs checksum-verifiable from a deposited reproducibility package.

Oleg Solozobov

Machine learning systems in fraud detection, credit scoring, and clinical risk assessment operate under delayed ground truth: outcome labels arrive days to months after the decision they evaluate. During this blind period, governance evidence degrades through mechanisms that neither drift detection methods nor governance frameworks adequately address. This paper formalizes an evidence sufficiency model with four dimensions (completeness, freshness, reliability, representativeness) and a decision-readiness gate that quantifies how label latency degrades evidence quality. The model maps three drift types to dimension-specific degradation trajectories. A complementary proxy indicator framework comprising seven measurement categories estimates sufficiency degradation without labels, with explicit coverage mapping and characterized blind spots per drift type. Evaluation on the IEEE-CIS Fraud Detection dataset (~590K transactions) with controlled drift injection shows that composite proxy monitoring detects covariate and mixed drift with 100% detection rate, while concept drift without feature change remains undetected -- consistent with the theoretical impossibility of unsupervised detection when P(X) is unchanged. Blind period simulation confirms monotone sufficiency degradation, with concept drift degrading fastest (S=0.242 at day 60 vs 0.418 for no-drift). The framework contributes a governance sufficiency monitoring instrument; its value lies in translating drift signals into auditable sufficiency assessments with characterized blind spots. Mapping sufficiency levels to governance actions requires deployment-specific calibration beyond this study's scope.

Oleg Solozobov

When automated decision systems fail, organizations frequently discover that formally compliant governance infrastructure cannot reconstruct what happened or why. This paper synthesizes an operational governance evidence framework -- structural accountability collapse diagnostics, decision trace schemas, evidence sufficiency measurement, and label-free monitoring -- into an integrated chain and analytically assesses its transferability across four decision system architectures. The cross-architecture comparison reveals a governance coverage gradient: deterministic rule engines achieve full DES-property fillability, hybrid ML+rules systems achieve partial fillability, classical ML systems achieve only minimal fillability, and agentic AI systems encounter structural breaks. We introduce the cascade of uncertainty, showing how governance failures propagate through serial dependencies between framework layers. For agentic systems, we identify three structural breaks -- decision diffusion, evidence fragmentation, and responsibility ambiguity -- and propose corresponding analytical extensions. Four propositions formalize the gradient, cascade compounding, delegation-depth effects, and extension sufficiency, establishing boundary conditions for the framework's valid operating envelope.

Oleg Solozobov

Automated decision systems produce operational data across multiple infrastructure layers, yet no single logging format captures the complete governance-relevant record of how a decision was reached. Regulatory frameworks prescribe what must be recorded without specifying a data model for how to record it -- a gap this paper terms the Fragmented Trace Problem. Following a design science methodology, the paper presents the Decision Event Schema (DES), a JSON Schema specification that bridges four infrastructure layers -- ML inference, rule/policy evaluation, cross-system coupling, and governance metadata -- within a single per-decision event structure. The schema employs degradation-aware field design: each of six top-level field groups maps to a governance evidence property and the degradation type it must resist. DES defines ten required root-level fields and introduces a tiered evidence strategy (lightweight, sampled, full) that enables organizations to match evidence completeness to decision risk and throughput. A mechanism feasibility analysis demonstrates compatibility with the highest-throughput integrity mechanisms at production-scale decision rates. Evaluation against 25+ existing formats confirms that DES is the only specification covering all four layers simultaneously. The schema offers practitioners a reference adoptable directly or adaptable through namespace extensions, and regulators a mapping from requirements to minimum evidence tiers.