Sumanta Mukherjee

Arindam Jati, Vijay Ekambaram, Shaonli Pal et al. · ibm-research

Selecting the right set of hyperparameters is crucial in time series forecasting. The classical temporal cross-validation framework for hyperparameter optimization (HPO) often leads to poor test performance because of a possible mismatch between validation and test periods. To address this test-validation mismatch, we propose a novel technique, H-Pro to drive HPO via test proxies by exploiting data hierarchies often associated with time series datasets. Since higher-level aggregated time series often show less irregularity and better predictability as compared to the lowest-level time series which can be sparse and intermittent, we optimize the hyperparameters of the lowest-level base-forecaster by leveraging the proxy forecasts for the test period generated from the forecasters at higher levels. H-Pro can be applied on any off-the-shelf machine learning model to perform HPO. We validate the efficacy of our technique with extensive empirical evaluation on five publicly available hierarchical forecasting datasets. Our approach outperforms existing state-of-the-art methods in Tourism, Wiki, and Traffic datasets, and achieves competitive result in Tourism-L dataset, without any model-specific enhancements. Moreover, our method outperforms the winning method of the M5 forecast accuracy competition.

Vikas C. Raykar, Arindam Jati, Sumanta Mukherjee et al.

A trustworthy machine learning model should be accurate as well as explainable. Understanding why a model makes a certain decision defines the notion of explainability. While various flavors of explainability have been well-studied in supervised learning paradigms like classification and regression, literature on explainability for time series forecasting is relatively scarce. In this paper, we propose a feature-based explainability algorithm, TsSHAP, that can explain the forecast of any black-box forecasting model. The method is agnostic of the forecasting model and can provide explanations for a forecast in terms of interpretable features defined by the user a prior. The explanations are in terms of the SHAP values obtained by applying the TreeSHAP algorithm on a surrogate model that learns a mapping between the interpretable feature space and the forecast of the black-box model. Moreover, we formalize the notion of local, semi-local, and global explanations in the context of time series forecasting, which can be useful in several scenarios. We validate the efficacy and robustness of TsSHAP through extensive experiments on multiple datasets.

Vijay Ekambaram, Arindam Jati, Pankaj Dayama et al.

Large pre-trained models excel in zero/few-shot learning for language and vision tasks but face challenges in multivariate time series (TS) forecasting due to diverse data characteristics. Consequently, recent research efforts have focused on developing pre-trained TS forecasting models. These models, whether built from scratch or adapted from large language models (LLMs), excel in zero/few-shot forecasting tasks. However, they are limited by slow performance, high computational demands, and neglect of cross-channel and exogenous correlations. To address this, we introduce Tiny Time Mixers (TTM), a compact model (starting from 1M parameters) with effective transfer learning capabilities, trained exclusively on public TS datasets. TTM, based on the light-weight TSMixer architecture, incorporates innovations like adaptive patching, diverse resolution sampling, and resolution prefix tuning to handle pre-training on varied dataset resolutions with minimal model capacity. Additionally, it employs multi-level modeling to capture channel correlations and infuse exogenous signals during fine-tuning. TTM outperforms existing popular benchmarks in zero/few-shot forecasting by (4-40%), while reducing computational requirements significantly. Moreover, TTMs are lightweight and can be executed even on CPU-only machines, enhancing usability and fostering wider adoption in resource-constrained environments. The model weights for reproducibility and research use are available at https://huggingface.co/ibm/ttm-research-r2/, while enterprise-use weights under the Apache license can be accessed as follows: the initial TTM-Q variant at https://huggingface.co/ibm-granite/granite-timeseries-ttm-r1, and the latest variants (TTM-B, TTM-E, TTM-A) weights are available at https://huggingface.co/ibm-granite/granite-timeseries-ttm-r2.

Vijay Ekambaram, Subodh Kumar, Arindam Jati et al.

The rise of time-series pre-trained models has advanced temporal representation learning, but current state-of-the-art models are often large-scale, requiring substantial compute. We introduce TSPulse, ultra-compact time-series pre-trained models with only 1M parameters, specialized to perform strongly across classification, anomaly detection, imputation, and retrieval tasks. TSPulse introduces innovations at both the architecture and task levels. At the architecture level, it employs a dual-space masked reconstruction, learning from both time and frequency domains to capture complementary signals. This is further enhanced by a dual-embedding disentanglement, generating both detailed embeddings for fine-grained analysis and high-level semantic embeddings for broader task understanding. Notably, TSPulse's semantic embeddings are robust to shifts in time, magnitude, and noise, which is important for robust retrieval. At the task level, TSPulse incorporates TSLens, a fine-tuning component enabling task-specific feature attention. It also introduces a multi-head triangulation technique that correlates deviations from multiple prediction heads, enhancing anomaly detection by fusing complementary model outputs. Additionally, a hybrid mask pretraining is proposed to improves zero-shot imputation by reducing pre-training bias. These architecture and task innovations collectively contribute to TSPulse's significant performance gains: 5-16% on the UEA classification benchmarks, +20% on the TSB-AD anomaly detection leaderboard, +50% in zero-shot imputation, and +25% in time-series retrieval. Remarkably, these results are achieved with just 1M parameters (10-100X smaller than existing SOTA models) and allow GPU-free inference, setting a new standard for efficient time-series pre-trained models. The models can be accessed from https://huggingface.co/ibm-granite/granite-timeseries-tspulse-r1

Debarpan Bhattacharya, Sumanta Mukherjee, Chandramouli Kamanchi et al.

Time series anomaly detection (TSAD) is an evolving area of research motivated by its critical applications, such as detecting seismic activity, sensor failures in industrial plants, predicting crashes in the stock market, and so on. Across domains, anomalies occur significantly less frequently than normal data, making the F1-score the most commonly adopted metric for anomaly detection. However, in the case of time series, it is not straightforward to use standard F1-score because of the dissociation between `time points' and `time events'. To accommodate this, anomaly predictions are adjusted, called as point adjustment (PA), before the $F_1$-score evaluation. However, these adjustments are heuristics-based, and biased towards true positive detection, resulting in over-estimated detector performance. In this work, we propose an alternative adjustment protocol called ``Balanced point adjustment'' (BA). It addresses the limitations of existing point adjustment methods and provides guarantees of fairness backed by axiomatic definitions of TSAD evaluation.

Shravan Kumar Sajja, Sumanta Mukherjee, Satyam Dwivedi

Counterfactual explanations for machine learning models are used to find minimal interventions to the feature values such that the model changes the prediction to a different output or a target output. A valid counterfactual explanation should have likely feature values. Here, we address the challenge of generating counterfactual explanations that lie in the same data distribution as that of the training data and more importantly, they belong to the target class distribution. This requirement has been addressed through the incorporation of auto-encoder reconstruction loss in the counterfactual search process. Connecting the output behavior of the classifier to the latent space of the auto-encoder has further improved the speed of the counterfactual search process and the interpretability of the resulting counterfactual explanations. Continuing this line of research, we show further improvement in the interpretability of counterfactual explanations when the auto-encoder is trained in a semi-supervised fashion with class tagged input data. We empirically evaluate our approach on several datasets and show considerable improvement in-terms of several metrics.

Chandramouli Kamanchi, Sumanta Mukherjee, Kameshwaran Sampath et al.

Activation functions are non-linearities in neural networks that allow them to learn complex mapping between inputs and outputs. Typical choices for activation functions are ReLU, Tanh, Sigmoid etc., where the choice generally depends on the application domain. In this work, we propose a framework/strategy that unifies several works on activation functions and theoretically explains the performance benefits of these works. We also propose novel techniques that originate from the framework and allow us to obtain ``extensions'' (i.e. special generalizations of a given neural network) of neural networks through operations on activation functions. We theoretically and empirically show that ``extensions'' of neural networks have performance benefits compared to vanilla neural networks with insignificant space and time complexity costs on standard test functions. We also show the benefits of neural network ``extensions'' in the time-series domain on real-world datasets.

Joy Bose, Sumanta Mukherjee

Boilerplate removal refers to the problem of removing noisy content from a webpage such as ads and extracting relevant content that can be used by various services. This can be useful in several features in web browsers such as ad blocking, accessibility tools such as read out loud, translation, summarization etc. In order to create a training dataset to train a model for boilerplate detection and removal, labeling or tagging webpage data manually can be tedious and time consuming. Hence, a semi-supervised model, in which some of the webpage elements are labeled manually and labels for others are inferred based on some parameters, can be useful. In this paper we present a solution for extraction of relevant content from a webpage that relies on semi-supervised learning using Gaussian Random Fields. We first represent the webpage as a graph, with text elements as nodes and the edge weights representing similarity between nodes. After this, we label a few nodes in the graph using heuristics and label the remaining nodes by a weighted measure of similarity to the already labeled nodes. We describe the system architecture and a few preliminary results on a dataset of webpages.