Lele Kang

Xiaoting Wei, Lele Kang, Xuelian Pan et al.

The rapid growth of open-source large language models (LLMs) has created a complex ecosystem of model inheritance and reuse. However, existing research has focused mainly on descriptive analyses of lineage evolution, with limited attention to identifying which models play a disruptive role in shaping subsequent development. Using metadata from 2,556,240 models on Hugging Face, this study reconstructs a large-scale lineage network and introduces the Model Disruption Index (MDI) to distinguish between models that reinforce existing technological trajectories and those that become new bases for later development. The results show that most models in the open-source LLM community are consolidative rather than disruptive, reflecting a highly concentrated and path-dependent evolutionary structure. Further analyses suggest that disruptive positions are more likely to emerge among large-scale models and through finetuning strategies. Overall, this study provides a new perspective for identifying disruptive models and understanding uneven technological development in open-source LLM ecosystems.

Bin Liu, Lele Kang, Jiannan Yang

Open-source large language models have made platforms such as Hugging Face central hubs for decentralized AI innovation. Yet these ecosystems are shaped not only by collaboration, but also by competition for priority and community attention. Drawing on Hill and Stein's Race-to-the-Bottom framework, this study extends the logic of project potential, maturation, competition, and quality from scientific production to open-source LLM ecosystems, where prominent base models attract concentrated derivative entry under rapid and highly visible platform feedback. Using a large-scale sample of derivative models on Hugging Face, we find that later releases and more crowded competitive environments are both associated with weaker community recognition, even after accounting for differences in model and ecosystem prominence. These findings suggest that competition for priority remains an important organizing force in open-source LLM ecosystems, shaping which derivative innovations receive community recognition.