Matt Y. Cheung

Matt Y. Cheung, Ashok Veeraraghavan, Guha Balakrishnan

Radiomic features derived from medical images and segmentation masks are used to support decision making in clinical imaging pipelines. In practice, these features are often computed from predicted masks, but segmentation models can be overconfident or poorly calibrated, making derived measurements appear more reliable than they are. Conformal prediction (CP) provides distribution-free prediction intervals with finite-sample marginal coverage guarantees, but black-box intervals for segmentation-derived radiomics can be inefficient because they ignore test-time information about image appearance, mask geometry, and segmentation uncertainty. We propose ConRad, a conformal framework for scalar radiomic targets that uses covariates derived from the predicted mask, input image, predicted radiomics, and boundary uncertainty to construct adaptive intervals while maintaining coverage. Across five 2D medical imaging datasets and 171 retained radiomic targets, we show that ConRad improves feature-level efficiency compared to baselines while maintaining near-nominal empirical coverage. Ablation results further indicate that segmentation boundary uncertainty features are the largest contributors to interval efficiency.

Matt Y. Cheung, Ashok Veeraraghavan, Hanjie Chen et al.

Language model reasoning traces are rarely all-or-nothing; they frequently contain valid intermediate steps before a critical error occurs. Existing uncertainty quantification methods typically certify final answers or entire responses, failing to provide statistical guarantees for the proportion of a sequential trace that can be safely retained. To address this, we introduce CROP (Conformal Reasoning Output Prefixes), a verifier-agnostic calibration procedure for clean-prefix certification. Given any step-level risk proxy, CROP selects a calibrated threshold and returns the longest contiguous prefix whose step risk proxies remain below it, routing the uncertified suffix for downstream review or repair. Assuming exchangeability, CROP rigorously controls the marginal probability that the returned prefix contains an annotated error. Across six process-labeled reasoning datasets, we demonstrate that standard step-level metrics such as AUROC do not fully capture prefix utility, suggesting verifiers should instead be evaluated by certified prefix length. Furthermore, CROP balances over- and under-withholding, improving downstream repair accuracy by preserving valid intermediate reasoning while discarding misleading suffixes. Ultimately, this work positions prefix certification as a rigorous, practical bridge between process supervision, abstention, and repair.

Matt Y Cheung, Tucker J Netherton, Laurence E Court et al.

Modern deep learning reconstruction algorithms generate impressively realistic scans from sparse inputs, but can often produce significant inaccuracies. This makes it difficult to provide statistically guaranteed claims about the true state of a subject from scans reconstructed by these algorithms. In this study, we propose a framework for computing provably valid prediction bounds on claims derived from probabilistic black-box image reconstruction algorithms. The key insights behind our framework are to represent reconstructed scans with a derived clinical metric of interest, and to calibrate bounds on the ground truth metric with conformal prediction (CP) using a prior calibration dataset. These bounds convey interpretable feedback about the subject's state, and can also be used to retrieve nearest-neighbor reconstructed scans for visual inspection. We demonstrate the utility of this framework on sparse-view computed tomography (CT) for fat mass quantification and radiotherapy planning tasks. Results show that our framework produces bounds with better semantical interpretation than conventional pixel-based bounding approaches. Furthermore, we can flag dangerous outlier reconstructions that look plausible but have statistically unlikely metric values.

Matt Y. Cheung, Ashok Veeraraghavan, Guha Balakrishnan

Template-based segmentation, a widely used paradigm in medical imaging, propagates anatomical labels via deformable registration from a labeled atlas to a target image, and is often used to compute volumetric biomarkers for downstream decision-making. While conformal prediction (CP) provides finite-sample valid intervals for scalar metrics, existing segmentation-based uncertainty quantification (UQ) approaches either rely on learned model features, often unavailable in classic template-based pipelines, or treat the registration process as a black box, resulting in overly conservative intervals when applied directly in output space. We introduce ConVOLT, a CP framework that achieves efficient volumetric UQ by conditioning calibration on properties of the estimated deformation field from template-based segmentation. ConVOLT calibrates a learned volumetric scaling factor from deformation space features. We evaluate ConVOLT on template-based segmentation tasks involving global, regional, and label volumetry across multiple datasets and registration methods. ConVOLT achieves target coverage while producing substantially tighter intervals than output-space conformal baselines. Our work paves way to exploit the registration process for efficient UQ in medical imaging pipelines.

Matt Y. Cheung, Sophia Zorek, Tucker J. Netherton et al.

Diffusion models demonstrate state-of-the-art performance on image generation, and are gaining traction for sparse medical image reconstruction tasks. However, compared to classical reconstruction algorithms relying on simple analytical priors, diffusion models have the dangerous property of producing realistic looking results \emph{even when incorrect}, particularly with few observations. We investigate the utility of diffusion models as priors for image reconstruction by varying the number of observations and comparing their performance to classical priors (sparse and Tikhonov regularization) using pixel-based, structural, and downstream metrics. We make comparisons on low-dose chest wall computed tomography (CT) for fat mass quantification. First, we find that classical priors are superior to diffusion priors when the number of projections is ``sufficient''. Second, we find that diffusion priors can capture a large amount of detail with very few observations, significantly outperforming classical priors. However, they fall short of capturing all details, even with many observations. Finally, we find that the performance of diffusion priors plateau after extremely few ($\approx$10-15) projections. Ultimately, our work highlights potential issues with diffusion-based sparse reconstruction and underscores the importance of further investigation, particularly in high-stakes clinical settings.

Sina Alemohammad, Hossein Babaei, Randall Balestriero et al.

High dimensionality poses many challenges to the use of data, from visualization and interpretation, to prediction and storage for historical preservation. Techniques abound to reduce the dimensionality of fixed-length sequences, yet these methods rarely generalize to variable-length sequences. To address this gap, we extend existing methods that rely on the use of kernels to variable-length sequences via use of the Recurrent Neural Tangent Kernel (RNTK). Since a deep neural network with ReLu activation is a Max-Affine Spline Operator (MASO), we dub our approach Max-Affine Spline Kernel (MASK). We demonstrate how MASK can be used to extend principal components analysis (PCA) and t-distributed stochastic neighbor embedding (t-SNE) and apply these new algorithms to separate synthetic time series data sampled from second-order differential equations.