Lucas Berry

Lucas Berry, David Meger

In this work, we demonstrate how to reliably estimate epistemic uncertainty while maintaining the flexibility needed to capture complicated aleatoric distributions. To this end, we propose an ensemble of Normalizing Flows (NF), which are state-of-the-art in modeling aleatoric uncertainty. The ensembles are created via sets of fixed dropout masks, making them less expensive than creating separate NF models. We demonstrate how to leverage the unique structure of NFs, base distributions, to estimate aleatoric uncertainty without relying on samples, provide a comprehensive set of baselines, and derive unbiased estimates for differential entropy. The methods were applied to a variety of experiments, commonly used to benchmark aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty estimation: 1D sinusoidal data, 2D windy grid-world ($\it{Wet Chicken}$), $\it{Pendulum}$, and $\it{Hopper}$. In these experiments, we setup an active learning framework and evaluate each model's capability at measuring aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty. The results show the advantages of using NF ensembles in capturing complicated aleatoric while maintaining accurate epistemic uncertainty estimates.

Lucas Berry, David Meger

This work introduces an efficient novel approach for epistemic uncertainty estimation for ensemble models for regression tasks using pairwise-distance estimators (PaiDEs). Utilizing the pairwise-distance between model components, these estimators establish bounds on entropy. We leverage this capability to enhance the performance of Bayesian Active Learning by Disagreement (BALD). Notably, unlike sample-based Monte Carlo estimators, PaiDEs exhibit a remarkable capability to estimate epistemic uncertainty at speeds up to 100 times faster while covering a significantly larger number of inputs at once and demonstrating superior performance in higher dimensions. To validate our approach, we conducted a varied series of regression experiments on commonly used benchmarks: 1D sinusoidal data, $\textit{Pendulum}$, $\textit{Hopper}$, $\textit{Ant}$ and $\textit{Humanoid}$. For each experimental setting, an active learning framework was applied to demonstrate the advantages of PaiDEs for epistemic uncertainty estimation. We compare our approach to existing active learning methods and find that our approach outperforms on high-dimensional regression tasks.

Lucas Berry, Axel Brando, Wei-Di Chang et al.

Estimating uncertainty in text-to-image diffusion models is challenging because of their large parameter counts (often exceeding 100 million) and operation in complex, high-dimensional spaces with virtually infinite input possibilities. In this paper, we propose Epistemic Mixture of Experts (EMoE), a novel framework for efficiently estimating epistemic uncertainty in diffusion models. EMoE leverages pre-trained networks without requiring additional training, enabling direct uncertainty estimation from a prompt. We leverage a latent space within the diffusion process that captures epistemic uncertainty better than existing methods. Experimental results on the COCO dataset demonstrate EMoE's effectiveness, showing a strong correlation between uncertainty and image quality. Additionally, EMoE identifies under-sampled languages and regions with higher uncertainty, revealing hidden biases in the training set. This capability demonstrates the relevance of EMoE as a tool for addressing fairness and accountability in AI-generated content.

Lucas Berry, Axel Brando, David Meger

Generative diffusion models, notable for their large parameter count (exceeding 100 million) and operation within high-dimensional image spaces, pose significant challenges for traditional uncertainty estimation methods due to computational demands. In this work, we introduce an innovative framework, Diffusion Ensembles for Capturing Uncertainty (DECU), designed for estimating epistemic uncertainty for diffusion models. The DECU framework introduces a novel method that efficiently trains ensembles of conditional diffusion models by incorporating a static set of pre-trained parameters, drastically reducing the computational burden and the number of parameters that require training. Additionally, DECU employs Pairwise-Distance Estimators (PaiDEs) to accurately measure epistemic uncertainty by evaluating the mutual information between model outputs and weights in high-dimensional spaces. The effectiveness of this framework is demonstrated through experiments on the ImageNet dataset, highlighting its capability to capture epistemic uncertainty, specifically in under-sampled image classes.