LGNov 1, 2025
Temporal Fusion Transformer for Multi-Horizon Probabilistic Forecasting of Weekly Retail SalesSanthi Bharath Punati, Sandeep Kanta, Udaya Bhasker Cheerala et al.
Accurate multi-horizon retail forecasts are critical for inventory and promotions. We present a novel study of weekly Walmart sales (45 stores, 2010--2012) using a Temporal Fusion Transformer (TFT) that fuses static store identifiers with time-varying exogenous signals (holidays, CPI, fuel price, temperature). The pipeline produces 1--5-week-ahead probabilistic forecasts via Quantile Loss, yielding calibrated 90\% prediction intervals and interpretability through variable-selection networks, static enrichment, and temporal attention. On a fixed 2012 hold-out dataset, TFT achieves an RMSE of \$57.9k USD per store-week and an $R^2$ of 0.9875. Across a 5-fold chronological cross-validation, the averages are RMSE = \$64.6k USD and $R^2$ = 0.9844, outperforming the XGB, CNN, LSTM, and CNN-LSTM baseline models. These results demonstrate practical value for inventory planning and holiday-period optimization, while maintaining model transparency.
LGNov 1, 2025
FTT-GRU: A Hybrid Fast Temporal Transformer with GRU for Remaining Useful Life PredictionVarun Teja Chirukiri, Udaya Bhasker Cheerala, Sandeep Kanta et al.
Accurate prediction of the remaining useful life (RUL) of industrial machinery is essential for reducing downtime and optimizing maintenance schedules. Existing approaches, such as long short-term memory (LSTM) networks and convolutional neural networks (CNNs), often struggle to model both global temporal dependencies and fine-grained degradation trends in multivariate sensor data. We propose a hybrid model, FTT-GRU, which combines a Fast Temporal Transformer (FTT) -- a lightweight Transformer variant using linearized attention via fast Fourier transform (FFT) -- with a gated recurrent unit (GRU) layer for sequential modeling. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first application of an FTT with a GRU for RUL prediction on NASA CMAPSS, enabling simultaneous capture of global and local degradation patterns in a compact architecture. On CMAPSS FD001, FTT-GRU attains RMSE 30.76, MAE 18.97, and $R^2=0.45$, with 1.12 ms CPU latency at batch=1. Relative to the best published deep baseline (TCN--Attention), it improves RMSE by 1.16\% and MAE by 4.00\%. Training curves averaged over $k=3$ runs show smooth convergence with narrow 95\% confidence bands, and ablations (GRU-only, FTT-only) support the contribution of both components. These results demonstrate that a compact Transformer-RNN hybrid delivers accurate and efficient RUL predictions on CMAPSS, making it suitable for real-time industrial prognostics.