Xiaotong Shen

Ben Dai, Xiaotong Shen, Lin Yee Chen et al.

In explainable artificial intelligence, discriminative feature localization is critical to reveal a blackbox model's decision-making process from raw data to prediction. In this article, we use two real datasets, the MNIST handwritten digits and MIT-BIH Electrocardiogram (ECG) signals, to motivate key characteristics of discriminative features, namely adaptiveness, predictive importance and effectiveness. Then, we develop a localization framework based on adversarial attacks to effectively localize discriminative features. In contrast to existing heuristic methods, we also provide a statistically guaranteed interpretability of the localized features by measuring a generalized partial $R^2$. We apply the proposed method to the MNIST dataset and the MIT-BIH dataset with a convolutional auto-encoder. In the first, the compact image regions localized by the proposed method are visually appealing. Similarly, in the second, the identified ECG features are biologically plausible and consistent with cardiac electrophysiological principles while locating subtle anomalies in a QRS complex that may not be discernible by the naked eye. Overall, the proposed method compares favorably with state-of-the-art competitors. Accompanying this paper is a Python library dnn-locate (https://dnn-locate.readthedocs.io/en/latest/) that implements the proposed approach.

Xiaotong Shen, Yifei Liu, Rex Shen

Synthetic data generation, a cornerstone of Generative Artificial Intelligence, promotes a paradigm shift in data science by addressing data scarcity and privacy while enabling unprecedented performance. As synthetic data becomes more prevalent, concerns emerge regarding the accuracy of statistical methods when applied to synthetic data in contrast to raw data. This article explores the effectiveness of statistical methods on synthetic data and the privacy risks of synthetic data. Regarding effectiveness, we present the Synthetic Data Generation for Analytics framework. This framework applies statistical approaches to high-quality synthetic data produced by generative models like tabular diffusion models, which, initially trained on raw data, benefit from insights from pertinent studies through transfer learning. A key finding within this framework is the generational effect, which reveals that the error rate of statistical methods on synthetic data decreases with the addition of more synthetic data but may eventually rise or stabilize. This phenomenon, stemming from the challenge of accurately mirroring raw data distributions, highlights a "reflection point"-an ideal volume of synthetic data defined by specific error metrics. Through three case studies, sentiment analysis, predictive modeling of structured data, and inference in tabular data, we validate the superior performance of this framework compared to conventional approaches. On privacy, synthetic data imposes lower risks while supporting the differential privacy standard. These studies underscore synthetic data's untapped potential in redefining data science's landscape.

Yu Yang, Xiaotong Shen

This paper presents FlowSUM, a normalizing flows-based variational encoder-decoder framework for Transformer-based summarization. Our approach tackles two primary challenges in variational summarization: insufficient semantic information in latent representations and posterior collapse during training. To address these challenges, we employ normalizing flows to enable flexible latent posterior modeling, and we propose a controlled alternate aggressive training (CAAT) strategy with an improved gate mechanism. Experimental results show that FlowSUM significantly enhances the quality of generated summaries and unleashes the potential for knowledge distillation with minimal impact on inference time. Furthermore, we investigate the issue of posterior collapse in normalizing flows and analyze how the summary quality is affected by the training strategy, gate initialization, and the type and number of normalizing flows used, offering valuable insights for future research.

Xinyu Tian, Xiaotong Shen

Accurate uncertainty quantification is crucial for making reliable decisions in various supervised learning scenarios, particularly when dealing with complex, multimodal data such as images and text. Current approaches often face notable limitations, including rigid assumptions and limited generalizability, constraining their effectiveness across diverse supervised learning tasks. To overcome these limitations, we introduce Generative Score Inference (GSI), a flexible inference framework capable of constructing statistically valid and informative prediction and confidence sets across a wide range of multimodal learning problems. GSI utilizes synthetic samples generated by deep generative models to approximate conditional score distributions, facilitating precise uncertainty quantification without imposing restrictive assumptions about the data or tasks. We empirically validate GSI's capabilities through two representative scenarios: hallucination detection in large language models and uncertainty estimation in image captioning. Our method achieves state-of-the-art performance in hallucination detection and robust predictive uncertainty in image captioning, and its performance is positively influenced by the quality of the underlying generative model. These findings underscore the potential of GSI as a versatile inference framework, significantly enhancing uncertainty quantification and trustworthiness in multimodal learning.

Xinyu Tian, Xiaotong Shen

High-dimensional generative modeling is fundamentally a manifold-learning problem: real data concentrate near a low-dimensional structure embedded in the ambient space. Effective generators must therefore balance support fidelity -- placing probability mass near the data manifold -- with sampling efficiency. Diffusion models often capture near-manifold structure but require many iterative denoising steps and can leak off-support; normalizing flows sample in one pass but are limited by invertibility and dimension preservation. We propose MAGT (Manifold-Aligned Generative Transport), a flow-like generator that learns a one-shot, manifold-aligned transport from a low-dimensional base distribution to the data space. Training is performed at a fixed Gaussian smoothing level, where the score is well-defined and numerically stable. We approximate this fixed-level score using a finite set of latent anchor points with self-normalized importance sampling, yielding a tractable objective. MAGT samples in a single forward pass, concentrates probability near the learned support, and induces an intrinsic density with respect to the manifold volume measure, enabling principled likelihood evaluation for generated samples. We establish finite-sample Wasserstein bounds linking smoothing level and score-approximation accuracy to generative fidelity, and empirically improve fidelity and manifold concentration across synthetic and benchmark datasets while sampling substantially faster than diffusion models.

Xinyu Tian, Xiaotong Shen

Reliable machine learning and statistical analysis rely on diverse, well-distributed training data. However, real-world datasets are often limited in size and exhibit underrepresentation across key subpopulations, leading to biased predictions and reduced performance, particularly in supervised tasks such as classification. To address these challenges, we propose Conditional Data Synthesis Augmentation (CoDSA), a novel framework that leverages generative models, such as diffusion models, to synthesize high-fidelity data for improving model performance across multimodal domains including tabular, textual, and image data. CoDSA generates synthetic samples that faithfully capture the conditional distributions of the original data, with a focus on under-sampled or high-interest regions. Through transfer learning, CoDSA fine-tunes pre-trained generative models to enhance the realism of synthetic data and increase sample density in sparse areas. This process preserves inter-modal relationships, mitigates data imbalance, improves domain adaptation, and boosts generalization. We also introduce a theoretical framework that quantifies the statistical accuracy improvements enabled by CoDSA as a function of synthetic sample volume and targeted region allocation, providing formal guarantees of its effectiveness. Extensive experiments demonstrate that CoDSA consistently outperforms non-adaptive augmentation strategies and state-of-the-art baselines in both supervised and unsupervised settings.

Xinyu Tian, Xiaotong Shen

Accurate prediction with multimodal data-encompassing tabular, textual, and visual inputs or outputs-is fundamental to advancing analytics in diverse application domains. Traditional approaches often struggle to integrate heterogeneous data types while maintaining high predictive accuracy. We introduce Generative Distribution Prediction (GDP), a novel framework that leverages multimodal synthetic data generation-such as conditional diffusion models-to enhance predictive performance across structured and unstructured modalities. GDP is model-agnostic, compatible with any high-fidelity generative model, and supports transfer learning for domain adaptation. We establish a rigorous theoretical foundation for GDP, providing statistical guarantees on its predictive accuracy when using diffusion models as the generative backbone. By estimating the data-generating distribution and adapting to various loss functions for risk minimization, GDP enables accurate point predictions across multimodal settings. We empirically validate GDP on four supervised learning tasks-tabular data prediction, question answering, image captioning, and adaptive quantile regression-demonstrating its versatility and effectiveness across diverse domains.

Jin Du, Li Chen, Xun Xian et al.

Reliable causal inference is essential for making decisions in high-stakes areas like medicine, economics, and public policy. However, it remains unclear whether large language models (LLMs) can handle rigorous and trustworthy statistical causal inference. Current benchmarks usually involve simplified tasks. For example, these tasks might only ask LLMs to identify semantic causal relationships or draw conclusions directly from raw data. As a result, models may overlook important statistical pitfalls, such as Simpson's paradox or selection bias. This oversight limits the applicability of LLMs in the real world. To address these limitations, we propose CausalPitfalls, a comprehensive benchmark designed to rigorously evaluate the capability of LLMs in overcoming common causal inference pitfalls. Our benchmark features structured challenges across multiple difficulty levels, each paired with grading rubrics. This approach allows us to quantitatively measure both causal reasoning capabilities and the reliability of LLMs' responses. We evaluate models using two protocols: (1) direct prompting, which assesses intrinsic causal reasoning, and (2) code-assisted prompting, where models generate executable code for explicit statistical analysis. Additionally, we validate the effectiveness of this judge by comparing its scoring with assessments from human experts. Our results reveal significant limitations in current LLMs when performing statistical causal inference. The CausalPitfalls benchmark provides essential guidance and quantitative metrics to advance the development of trustworthy causal reasoning systems.

Yifei Liu, Rex Shen, Xiaotong Shen

This paper introduces a novel Perturbation-Assisted Inference (PAI) framework utilizing synthetic data generated by the Perturbation-Assisted Sample Synthesis (PASS) method. The framework focuses on uncertainty quantification in complex data scenarios, particularly involving unstructured data while utilizing deep learning models. On one hand, PASS employs a generative model to create synthetic data that closely mirrors raw data while preserving its rank properties through data perturbation, thereby enhancing data diversity and bolstering privacy. By incorporating knowledge transfer from large pre-trained generative models, PASS enhances estimation accuracy, yielding refined distributional estimates of various statistics via Monte Carlo experiments. On the other hand, PAI boasts its statistically guaranteed validity. In pivotal inference, it enables precise conclusions even without prior knowledge of the pivotal's distribution. In non-pivotal situations, we enhance the reliability of synthetic data generation by training it with an independent holdout sample. We demonstrate the effectiveness of PAI in advancing uncertainty quantification in complex, data-driven tasks by applying it to diverse areas such as image synthesis, sentiment word analysis, multimodal inference, and the construction of prediction intervals.

Xuan Bi, Xiaotong Shen

Differential privacy is becoming one gold standard for protecting the privacy of publicly shared data. It has been widely used in social science, data science, public health, information technology, and the U.S. decennial census. Nevertheless, to guarantee differential privacy, existing methods may unavoidably alter the conclusion of the original data analysis, as privatization often changes the sample distribution. This phenomenon is known as the trade-off between privacy protection and statistical accuracy. In this work, we mitigate this trade-off by developing a distribution-invariant privatization (DIP) method to reconcile both high statistical accuracy and strict differential privacy. As a result, any downstream statistical or machine learning task yields essentially the same conclusion as if one used the original data. Numerically, under the same strictness of privacy protection, DIP achieves superior statistical accuracy in a wide range of simulation studies and real-world benchmarks.

Ben Dai, Xiaotong Shen, Wei Pan

A recommender system learns to predict the user-specific preference or intention over many items simultaneously for all users, making personalized recommendations based on a relatively small number of observations. One central issue is how to leverage three-way interactions, referred to as user-item-stage dependencies on a monotonic chain of events, to enhance the prediction accuracy. A monotonic chain of events occurs, for instance, in an article sharing dataset, where a ``follow'' action implies a ``like'' action, which in turn implies a ``view'' action. In this article, we develop a multistage recommender system utilizing a two-level monotonic property characterizing a monotonic chain of events for personalized prediction. Particularly, we derive a large-margin classifier based on a nonnegative additive latent factor model in the presence of a high percentage of missing observations, particularly between stages, reducing the number of model parameters for personalized prediction while guaranteeing prediction consistency. On this ground, we derive a regularized cost function to learn user-specific behaviors at different stages, linking decision functions to numerical and categorical covariates to model user-item-stage interactions. Computationally, we derive an algorithm based on blockwise coordinate descent. Theoretically, we show that the two-level monotonic property enhances the accuracy of learning as compared to a standard method treating each stage individually and an ordinal method utilizing only one-level monotonicity. Finally, the proposed method compares favorably with existing methods in simulations and an article sharing dataset.

Ben Dai, Xiaotong Shen, Wei Pan

An exciting recent development is the uptake of deep neural networks in many scientific fields, where the main objective is outcome prediction with the black-box nature. Significance testing is promising to address the black-box issue and explore novel scientific insights and interpretation of the decision-making process based on a deep learning model. However, testing for a neural network poses a challenge because of its black-box nature and unknown limiting distributions of parameter estimates while existing methods require strong assumptions or excessive computation. In this article, we derive one-split and two-split tests relaxing the assumptions and computational complexity of existing black-box tests and extending to examine the significance of a collection of features of interest in a dataset of possibly a complex type such as an image. The one-split test estimates and evaluates a black-box model based on estimation and inference subsets through sample splitting and data perturbation. The two-split test further splits the inference subset into two but require no perturbation. Also, we develop their combined versions by aggregating the p-values based on repeated sample splitting. By deflating the bias-sd-ratio, we establish asymptotic null distributions of the test statistics and the consistency in terms of Type II error. Numerically, we demonstrate the utility of the proposed tests on seven simulated examples and six real datasets. Accompanying this paper is our Python library dnn-inference (https://dnn-inference.readthedocs.io/en/latest/) that implements the proposed tests.

Xuan Bi, Annie Qu, Xiaotong Shen

Recommender systems have been widely adopted by electronic commerce and entertainment industries for individualized prediction and recommendation, which benefit consumers and improve business intelligence. In this article, we propose an innovative method, namely the recommendation engine of multilayers (REM), for tensor recommender systems. The proposed method utilizes the structure of a tensor response to integrate information from multiple modes, and creates an additional layer of nested latent factors to accommodate between-subjects dependency. One major advantage is that the proposed method is able to address the "cold-start" issue in the absence of information from new customers, new products or new contexts. Specifically, it provides more effective recommendations through sub-group information. To achieve scalable computation, we develop a new algorithm for the proposed method, which incorporates a maximum block improvement strategy into the cyclic blockwise-coordinate-descent algorithm. In theory, we investigate both algorithmic properties for global and local convergence, along with the asymptotic consistency of estimated parameters. Finally, the proposed method is applied in simulations and IRI marketing data with 116 million observations of product sales. Numerical studies demonstrate that the proposed method outperforms existing competitors in the literature.

Xiaotong Shen, Hans Andersen, Wei Kang Leong et al.

When a vehicle observes another one, the two vehicles' poses are correlated by this spatial relative observation, which can be used in cooperative localization for further increasing localization accuracy and precision. To use spatial relative observations, we propose to add them into a pose graph for optimal pose estimation. Before adding them, we need to know the identities of the observed vehicles. The vehicle identification is formulated as a linear assignment problem, which can be solved efficiently. By using pose graph techniques and the start-of-the-art factor composition/decomposition method, our cooperative localization algorithm is robust against communication delay, packet loss, and out-of-sequence packet reception. We demonstrate the usability of our framework and effectiveness of our algorithm through both simulations and real-world experiments using three vehicles on the road.

Sen Yang, Zhaosong Lu, Xiaotong Shen et al.

In this paper, we consider the problem of estimating multiple graphical models simultaneously using the fused lasso penalty, which encourages adjacent graphs to share similar structures. A motivating example is the analysis of brain networks of Alzheimer's disease using neuroimaging data. Specifically, we may wish to estimate a brain network for the normal controls (NC), a brain network for the patients with mild cognitive impairment (MCI), and a brain network for Alzheimer's patients (AD). We expect the two brain networks for NC and MCI to share common structures but not to be identical to each other; similarly for the two brain networks for MCI and AD. The proposed formulation can be solved using a second-order method. Our key technical contribution is to establish the necessary and sufficient condition for the graphs to be decomposable. Based on this key property, a simple screening rule is presented, which decomposes the large graphs into small subgraphs and allows an efficient estimation of multiple independent (small) subgraphs, dramatically reducing the computational cost. We perform experiments on both synthetic and real data; our results demonstrate the effectiveness and efficiency of the proposed approach.

Shuo Xiang, Xiaotong Shen, Jieping Ye

Sparse feature selection has been demonstrated to be effective in handling high-dimensional data. While promising, most of the existing works use convex methods, which may be suboptimal in terms of the accuracy of feature selection and parameter estimation. In this paper, we expand a nonconvex paradigm to sparse group feature selection, which is motivated by applications that require identifying the underlying group structure and performing feature selection simultaneously. The main contributions of this article are twofold: (1) statistically, we introduce a nonconvex sparse group feature selection model which can reconstruct the oracle estimator. Therefore, consistent feature selection and parameter estimation can be achieved; (2) computationally, we propose an efficient algorithm that is applicable to large-scale problems. Numerical results suggest that the proposed nonconvex method compares favorably against its competitors on synthetic data and real-world applications, thus achieving desired goal of delivering high performance.