Simone Formentin

Gianmarco Rallo, Simone Formentin, Sergio Matteo Savaresi

Due to geometrical errors and possible misalignment of the sensors, wheel speed measurements provided by incremental encoders in road vehicles are usually affected by significant periodic noises. This paper presents an online wheel speed filtering procedure, based on a model of the sensor, aimed at processing the speed measurement to make it suitable for advanced vehicle dynamics applications. In particular, differently from low-pass and notch filtering, this strategy is reliable for the cycling cadence estimation from the wheel speed on bicycles. Experimental data are used to show the effectiveness of the proposed approach.

Carlo Novara, Simone Formentin

Data-Driven Inversion-Based Control (D$^{2}$-IBC) is a recently introduced control design method for uncertain nonlinear systems, relying on a two degree-of-freedom architecture, with a nonlinear controller and a linear controller running in parallel. In this paper, extending to the MIMO case a previous result holding for the SISO case, we derive a finite-gain stability sufficient condition for a closed-loop system formed by a nonlinear MIMO plant, connected in feedback with a D$^{2}$-IBC controller.

Gianluca Giacomelli, Victor G. Lopez, Simone Formentin et al.

Data-enabled predictive control (DeePC) has recently attracted attention as a promising approach for controlling systems directly from raw data, without requiring an explicit identification step. However, DeePC has not yet been extended to piecewise affine (PWA) systems, despite their extensive use in the (predictive) control literature and their universal approximation capabilities. To address this gap, in this work, we lay the foundations for data-enabled predictive control of PWA systems, providing: $(i)$ their behavioral characterization; $(ii)$ an extension of Willems' Fundamental Lemma to represent their behavior from raw data; $(iii)$ an analysis of the coherence of DeePC strategies using a linear predictor and shrinkage regularizers; and $(iv)$ a study of the impact of misclassification errors on structuring data for prediction. Our theoretical findings are validated by numerical results on a simple example, emphasizing the need to extend beyond a regularized version of the foundational DeePC framework to design control actions that are both effective and coherent with a PWA system's behavior, thus ensuring the controller's explainability.

Le Anh Dao, Loris Roveda, Marco Maccarini et al.

Black-box optimization refers to the optimization problem whose objective function and/or constraint sets are either unknown, inaccessible, or non-existent. In many applications, especially with the involvement of humans, the only way to access the optimization problem is through performing physical experiments with the available outcomes being the preference of one candidate with respect to one or many others. Accordingly, the algorithm so-called Active Preference Learning has been developed to exploit this specific information in constructing a surrogate function based on standard radial basis functions, and then forming an easy-to-solve acquisition function which repetitively suggests new decision vectors to search for the optimal solution. Based on this idea, our approach aims to extend the algorithm in such a way that can exploit further information effectively, which can be obtained in reality such as: 5-point Likert type scale for the outcomes of the preference query (i.e., the preference can be described in not only "this is better than that" but also "this is much better than that" level), or multiple outcomes for a single preference query with possible additive information on how certain the outcomes are. The validation of the proposed algorithm is done through some standard benchmark functions, showing a promising improvement with respect to the state-of-the-art algorithm.

Riccardo Busetto, Valentina Breschi, Simone Formentin

When solving global optimization problems in practice, one often ends up repeatedly solving problems that are similar to each others. By providing a rigorous definition of similarity, in this work we propose to incorporate the META-learning rationale into SMGO-$Δ$, a global optimization approach recently proposed in the literature, to exploit priors obtained from similar past experience to efficiently solve new (similar) problems. Through a benchmark numerical example we show the practical benefits of our META-extension of the baseline algorithm, while providing theoretical bounds on its performance.

Raffaele Giuseppe Cestari, Gabriele Maroni, Loris Cannelli et al.

The calibration and training of a neural network is a complex and time-consuming procedure that requires significant computational resources to achieve satisfactory results. Key obstacles are a large number of hyperparameters to select and the onset of overfitting in the face of a small amount of data. In this framework, we propose an innovative training strategy for feed-forward architectures - called split-boost - that improves performance and automatically includes a regularizing behaviour without modeling it explicitly. Such a novel approach ultimately allows us to avoid explicitly modeling the regularization term, decreasing the total number of hyperparameters and speeding up the tuning phase. The proposed strategy is tested on a real-world (anonymized) dataset within a benchmark medical insurance design problem.

Braghadeesh Lakshminarayanan, Federico Dettù, Cristian R. Rojas et al.

Many industrial processes require suitable controllers to meet their performance requirements. More often, a sophisticated digital twin is available, which is a highly complex model that is a virtual representation of a given physical process, whose parameters may not be properly tuned to capture the variations in the physical process. In this paper, we present a sim2real, direct data-driven controller tuning approach, where the digital twin is used to generate input-output data and suitable controllers for several perturbations in its parameters. State-of-the art neural-network architectures are then used to learn the controller tuning rule that maps input-output data onto the controller parameters, based on artificially generated data from perturbed versions of the digital twin. In this way, as far as we are aware, we tackle for the first time the problem of re-calibrating the controller by meta-learning the tuning rule directly from data, thus practically replacing the control engineer with a machine learning model. The benefits of this methodology are illustrated via numerical simulations for several choices of neural-network architectures.

Matteo Cercola, Valeria Capretti, Simone Formentin

Learning from human preferences is a cornerstone of aligning machine learning models with subjective human judgments. Yet, collecting such preference data is often costly and time-consuming, motivating the need for more efficient learning paradigms. Two established approaches offer complementary advantages: RLHF scales effectively to high-dimensional tasks such as LLM fine-tuning, while PBO achieves greater sample efficiency through active querying. We propose a hybrid framework that unifies RLHF's scalability with PBO's query efficiency by integrating an acquisition-driven module into the RLHF pipeline, thereby enabling active and sample-efficient preference gathering. We validate the proposed approach on two representative domains: (i) high-dimensional preference optimization and (ii) LLM fine-tuning. Experimental results demonstrate consistent improvements in both sample efficiency and overall performance across these tasks.

Raffaele Giuseppe Cestari, Filippo Barchi, Riccardo Busetto et al.

Accurately forecasting the direction of financial returns poses a formidable challenge, given the inherent unpredictability of financial time series. The task becomes even more arduous when applied to cryptocurrency returns, given the chaotic and intricately complex nature of crypto markets. In this study, we present a novel prediction algorithm using limit order book (LOB) data rooted in the Hawkes model, a category of point processes. Coupled with a continuous output error (COE) model, our approach offers a precise forecast of return signs by leveraging predictions of future financial interactions. Capitalizing on the non-uniformly sampled structure of the original time series, our strategy surpasses benchmark models in both prediction accuracy and cumulative profit when implemented in a trading environment. The efficacy of our approach is validated through Monte Carlo simulations across 50 scenarios. The research draws on LOB measurements from a centralized cryptocurrency exchange where the stablecoin Tether is exchanged against the U.S. dollar.

Jessica Leoni, Valentina Breschi, Simone Formentin et al.

Traditional models grounded in first principles often struggle with accuracy as the system's complexity increases. Conversely, machine learning approaches, while powerful, face challenges in interpretability and in handling physical constraints. Efforts to combine these models often often stumble upon difficulties in finding a balance between accuracy and complexity. To address these issues, we propose a comprehensive framework based on a "mixture of experts" rationale. This approach enables the data-based fusion of diverse local models, leveraging the full potential of first-principle-based priors. Our solution allows independent training of experts, drawing on techniques from both machine learning and system identification, and it supports both collaborative and competitive learning paradigms. To enhance interpretability, we penalize abrupt variations in the expert's combination. Experimental results validate the effectiveness of our approach in producing an interpretable combination of models closely resembling the target phenomena.

Raffaele Giuseppe Cestari, Simone Formentin

Predicting financial returns accurately poses a significant challenge due to the inherent uncertainty in financial time series data. Enhancing prediction models' performance hinges on effectively capturing both social and financial sentiment. In this study, we showcase the efficacy of leveraging sentiment information extracted from tweets using the FinBERT large language model. By meticulously curating an optimal feature set through correlation analysis and employing Bayesian-optimized Recursive Feature Elimination for automatic feature selection, we surpass existing methodologies, achieving an F1-score exceeding 70% on the test set. This success translates into demonstrably higher cumulative profits during backtested trading. Our investigation focuses on real-world SPY ETF data alongside corresponding tweets sourced from the StockTwits platform.

Giacomo Delcaro, Riccardo Poli, Federico Dettù et al.

Conventional vehicle dynamics estimation methods suffer from the drawback of employing independent, separately calibrated filtering modules for each variable. To address this limitation, a recent proposal introduces a unified Twin-in-the-Loop (TiL) Observer architecture. This architecture replaces the simplified control-oriented vehicle model with a full-fledged vehicle simulator (digital twin), and employs a real-time correction mechanism using a linear time-invariant output error law. Bayesian Optimization is utilized to tune the observer due to the simulator's black-box nature, leading to a high-dimensional optimization problem. This paper focuses on developing a procedure to reduce the observer's complexity by exploring both supervised and unsupervised learning approaches. The effectiveness of these strategies is validated for longitudinal and lateral vehicle dynamics using real-world data.

Raffaele Giuseppe Cestari, Andrea Castelletti, Simone Formentin

The optimal operation of water reservoir systems is a challenging task involving multiple conflicting objectives. The main source of complexity is the presence of the water inflow, which acts as an exogenous, highly uncertain disturbance on the system. When model predictive control (MPC) is employed, the optimal water release is usually computed based on the (predicted) trajectory of the inflow. This choice may jeopardize the closed-loop performance when the actual inflow differs from its forecast. In this work, we consider - for the first time - a stochastic MPC approach for water reservoirs, in which the control is optimized based on a set of plausible future inflows directly generated from past data. Such a scenario-based MPC strategy allows the controller to be more cautious, counteracting droughty periods (e.g., the lake level going below the dry limit) while at the same time guaranteeing that the agricultural water demand is satisfied. The method's effectiveness is validated through extensive Monte Carlo tests using actual inflow data from Lake Como, Italy.

Simone Formentin, Jacopo Guanetti, Sergio M. Savaresi

Energy management of plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles (HEVs) has different challenges from non-plug-in HEVs, due to bigger batteries and grid recharging. Instead of tackling it to pursue energetic efficiency, an approach minimizing the driving cost incurred by the user - the combined costs of fuel, grid energy and battery degradation - is here proposed. A real-time approximation of the resulting optimal policy is then provided, as well as some analytic insight into its dependence on the system parameters. The advantages of the proposed formulation and the effectiveness of the real-time strategy are shown by means of a thorough simulation campaign.