David De Roure

Petar Radanliev, David De Roure, Carsten Maple et al.

The article forecasts emerging cyber-risks from the integration of AI in cybersecurity.

Petar Radanliev, David De Roure

This article advances the knowledge on teaching and training new artificial intelligence algorithms, for securing, preparing, and adapting the healthcare system to cope with future pandemics. The core objective is to develop a concept healthcare system supported by autonomous artificial intelligence that can use edge health devices with real-time data. The article constructs two case scenarios for applying cybersecurity with autonomous artificial intelligence for (1) self-optimising predictive cyber risk analytics of failures in healthcare systems during a Disease X event (i.e., undefined future pandemic), and (2) self-adaptive forecasting of medical production and supply chain bottlenecks during future pandemics. To construct the two testing scenarios, the article uses the case of Covid-19 to synthesise data for the algorithms i.e., for optimising and securing digital healthcare systems in anticipation of disease X. The testing scenarios are built to tackle the logistical challenges and disruption of complex production and supply chains for vaccine distribution with optimisation algorithms.

Petar Radanliev, David De Roure

A set of six algorithmic solutions is presented for resolving vaccine production and supply chain bottlenecks. A different set of algorithmic solutions is presented for forecasting risks during a Disease X event.

Petar Radanliev, David De Roure

This article presents a new design for autonomous artificial intelligence (AI), based on the state-of-the-art algorithms, and describes a new autonomous AI system called AutoAI. The methodology is used to assemble the design founded on self-improved algorithms that use new and emerging sources of data (NEFD). The objective of the article is to conceptualise the design of a novel AutoAI algorithm. The conceptual approach is used to advance into building new and improved algorithms. The article integrates and consolidates the findings from existing literature and advances the AutoAI design into (1) using new and emerging sources of data for teaching and training AI algorithms and (2) enabling AI algorithms to use automated tools for training new and improved algorithms. This approach is going beyond the state-of-the-art in AI algorithms and suggests a design that enables autonomous algorithms to self-optimise and self-adapt, and on a higher level, be capable to self-procreate.

Petar Radanliev, David De Roure, Omar Santos

In the contemporary digital age, Quantum Computing and Artificial Intelligence (AI) convergence is reshaping the cyber landscape, introducing unprecedented opportunities and potential vulnerabilities.This research, conducted over five years, delves into the cybersecurity implications of this convergence, with a particular focus on AI/Natural Language Processing (NLP) models and quantum cryptographic protocols, notably the BB84 method and specific NIST-approved algorithms. Utilising Python and C++ as primary computational tools, the study employs a "red teaming" approach, simulating potential cyber-attacks to assess the robustness of quantum security measures. Preliminary research over 12 months laid the groundwork, which this study seeks to expand upon, aiming to translate theoretical insights into actionable, real-world cybersecurity solutions. Located at the University of Oxford's technology precinct, the research benefits from state-of-the-art infrastructure and a rich collaborative environment. The study's overarching goal is to ensure that as the digital world transitions to quantum-enhanced operations, it remains resilient against AI-driven cyber threats. The research aims to foster a safer, quantum-ready digital future through iterative testing, feedback integration, and continuous improvement. The findings are intended for broad dissemination, ensuring that the knowledge benefits academia and the global community, emphasising the responsible and secure harnessing of quantum technology.

Petar Radanliev, David De Roure, Carsten Maple et al.

We present a dependency model tailored to the context of current challenges in data strategies and make recommendations for the cybersecurity community. The model can be used for cyber risk estimation and assessment and generic risk impact assessment.

David De Roure

Euler's Gradus Suavitatis (1739) assigns a dissonance value to a musical interval p/q by the formula G(p/q) = 1 + Ω^(p) + Ω^(q), where Ω^(n) = \sum_i e_i(p_i - 1) sums the weighted prime exponents of n. We propose the simpler asymmetric formula f(p/q) = p + Ω^(q), which treats numerator and denominator differently and performs comparably on standard consonance data. We also show that, under a model in which harmonics are integer-indexed and counted uniformly up to a fixed truncation level, Gradus is equivalent to a weighted harmonic coincidence count with weights w(n) = Ω^(n), connecting it to Galileo's earlier pulse-coincidence model (1638). The formula naturally generates a coprime integer triangle T(n,k) = n + Ω^(k), whose rightmost diagonal gives the two-stage dissonance of the superparticular (consecutive-harmonic) intervals. The formula f admits a simple two-stage interpretation in terms of harmonic context and partial recognition, which we offer as a speculative perceptual hypothesis.

Petar Radanliev, David De Roure, Max Van Kleek et al.

The Internet of Things (IoT) triggers new types of cyber risks. Therefore, the integration of new IoT devices and services requires a self-assessment of IoT cyber security posture. By security posture this article refers to the cybersecurity strength of an organisation to predict, prevent and respond to cyberthreats. At present, there is a gap in the state of the art, because there are no self-assessment methods for quantifying IoT cyber risk posture. To address this gap, an empirical analysis is performed of 12 cyber risk assessment approaches. The results and the main findings from the analysis is presented as the current and a target risk state for IoT systems, followed by conclusions and recommendations on a transformation roadmap, describing how IoT systems can achieve the target state with a new goal-oriented dependency model. By target state, we refer to the cyber security target that matches the generic security requirements of an organisation. The research paper studies and adapts four alternatives for IoT risk assessment and identifies the goal-oriented dependency modelling as a dominant approach among the risk assessment models studied. The new goal-oriented dependency model in this article enables the assessment of uncontrollable risk states in complex IoT systems and can be used for a quantitative self-assessment of IoT cyber risk posture.

Jason R. C. Nurse, Sadie Creese, David De Roure

Information security risk assessment methods have served us well over the past two decades. They have provided a tool for organizations and governments to use in protecting themselves against pertinent risks. As the complexity, pervasiveness, and automation of technology systems increases and cyberspace matures, particularly with the Internet of Things (IoT), there is a strong argument that we will need new approaches to assess risk and build trust. The challenge with simply extending existing assessment methodologies to IoT systems is that we could be blind to new risks arising in such ecosystems. These risks could be related to the high degrees of connectivity present or the coupling of digital, cyber-physical, and social systems. This article makes the case for new methodologies to assess risk in this context that consider the dynamics and uniqueness of the IoT while maintaining the rigor of best practice in risk assessment.

Aastha Madaan, Jason R. C. Nurse, David De Roure et al.

The concept of social machines is increasingly being used to characterise various socio-cognitive spaces on the Web. Social machines are human collectives using networked digital technology which initiate real-world processes and activities including human communication, interactions and knowledge creation. As such, they continuously emerge and fade on the Web. The relationship between humans and machines is made more complex by the adoption of Internet of Things (IoT) sensors and devices. The scale, automation, continuous sensing, and actuation capabilities of these devices add an extra dimension to the relationship between humans and machines making it difficult to understand their evolution at either the systemic or the conceptual level. This article describes these new socio-technical systems, which we term Cyber-Physical Social Machines, through different exemplars, and considers the associated challenges of security and privacy.

Jason R. C. Nurse, Petar Radanliev, Sadie Creese et al.

Security risk assessment methods have served us well over the last two decades. As the complexity, pervasiveness and automation of technology systems increases, particularly with the Internet of Things (IoT), there is a convincing argument that we will need new approaches to assess risk and build system trust. In this article, we report on a series of scoping workshops and interviews with industry professionals (experts in enterprise systems, IoT and risk) conducted to investigate the validity of this argument. Additionally, our research aims to consult with these professionals to understand two crucial aspects. Firstly, we seek to identify the wider concerns in adopting IoT systems into a corporate environment, be it a smart manufacturing shop floor or a smart office. Secondly, we investigate the key challenges for approaches in industry that attempt to effectively and efficiently assess cyber-risk in the IoT.

Shaona Ghosh, Kevin Page, David De Roure

Ride sharing has important implications in terms of environmental, social and individual goals by reducing carbon footprints, fostering social interactions and economizing commuter costs. The ride sharing systems that are commonly available lack adaptive and scalable techniques that can simultaneously learn from the large scale data and predict in real-time dynamic fashion. In this paper, we study such a problem towards a smart city initiative, where a generic ride sharing system is conceived capable of making predictions about ride share opportunities based on the historically recorded data while satisfying real-time ride requests. Underpinning the system is an application of a powerful machine learning convex optimization framework called Network Lasso that uses the Alternate Direction Method of Multipliers (ADMM) optimization for learning and dynamic prediction. We propose an application of a robust and scalable unified optimization framework within the ride sharing case-study. The application of Network Lasso framework is capable of jointly optimizing and clustering different rides based on their spatial and model similarity. The prediction from the framework clusters new ride requests, making accurate price prediction based on the clusters, detecting hidden correlations in the data and allowing fast convergence due to the network topology. We provide an empirical evaluation of the application of ADMM network Lasso on real trip record and simulated data, proving their effectiveness since the mean squared error of the algorithm's prediction is minimized on the test rides.