Zhaoyuan Yu

Yu Qiao, Lina Gong, Yu Zhao et al.

Software defect prediction (SDP) aims to identify high-risk defect modules in software development, optimizing resource allocation. While previous studies show that dependency network metrics improve defect prediction, most methods focus on code-based dependency graphs, overlooking developer factors. Current metrics, based on handcrafted features like ego and global network metrics, fail to fully capture defect-related information. To address this, we propose DeMuVGN, a defect prediction model that learns multi-view software dependency via graph neural networks. We introduce a Multi-view Software Dependency Graph (MSDG) that integrates data, call, and developer dependencies. DeMuVGN also leverages the Synthetic Minority Oversampling Technique (SMOTE) to address class imbalance and enhance defect module identification. In a case study of eight open-source projects across 20 versions, DeMuVGN demonstrates significant improvements: i) models based on multi-view graphs improve F1 scores by 11.1% to 12.1% over single-view models; ii) DeMuVGN improves F1 scores by 17.4% to 45.8% in within-project contexts and by 17.9% to 41.0% in cross-project contexts. Additionally, DeMuVGN excels in software evolution, showing more improvement in later-stage software versions. Its strong performance across different projects highlights its generalizability. We recommend future research focus on multi-view dependency graphs for defect prediction in both mature and newly developed projects.

Zhaoyuan Yu, Zhangyong Liang

Geographic tipping points in ecosystems, climate subsystems, or ice sheets pose severe challenges for localized early warning. Classical spatial indicators such as Moran's I summarize global spatial structure, but they struggle with three issues: spatial dilution, Euclidean assumptions, and correlated noise. This paper introduces SpatioTemporal Causal Network Diagnostics (ST-CND), a framework that addresses these three issues by representing the geographic field as a time-evolving directed causal network. The core workflow is as follows: (1) infer which spatial nodes help predict other nodes via transfer entropy, replacing fixed Euclidean neighborhoods with data-driven information-flow topology; (2) estimate local recovery rates within each candidate subnetwork via dynamic mode decomposition; and (3) identify the most vulnerable subnetwork by combining three signals, namely high internal fluctuation, high internal synchronization, and low external coupling, thereby suppressing false alarms from spatially correlated noise. Validated on synthetic bifurcations and two observational sea-surface temperature benchmarks, namely Indo-Pacific SST and North Atlantic AMOC, ST-CND delivers localized and interpretable warnings. On the AMOC task, it achieves an AUROC of 0.783 and a critical-subnetwork IoU of 0.378, outperforming recurrence-network and lambda-AR1 baselines. The framework provides an interpretable and scalable pipeline for spatial early warning in Earth system science.