Jun Wen Law

Jun Wen Law, Dharik S. Mallapragada

High-resolution energy system capacity expansion models (CEMs) for energy transition planning often result in large-scale mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) formulations. Benders decomposition (BD) offers a scalable solution approach by iteratively solving a master problem (MP) for investment decisions and multiple subproblems (SPs) for operational decisions. However, accumulated Benders cuts generated by the SPs can make MP solution a major computational bottleneck. Incomplete SP parallelization can also introduce further bottlenecks when SPs exceed available CPUs. We develop clustering-enhanced BD methods to address these challenges, by using clustering to group similar SPs for: a) aggregated Benders cut construction and b) identification of representative SPs to be solved most frequently. For grouped-cuts, we examine two adaptive formulations based on dual variables and a fixed-grouping formulation based on exogenous time-series inputs. We evaluate these methods in an electricity-sector CEM across varying system sizes, temporal SP lengths, inter-SP coupling strengths represented by CO2 policy, computational resources, and stochastic settings. Relative to a benchmark regularized multi-cut formulation, adaptive grouped cuts outperform fixed grouping and provide substantial benefits under weak inter-temporal coupling. The largest gains occur in larger systems with shorter SP horizons, where the MP accounts for a greater share of runtime. Their effectiveness declines under strong inter-temporal coupling, such as annual CO2 emissions limits, where the benchmark multi-cut performs best. The representative-SP method outperforms the benchmark under limited parallelization when SP solution dominates runtime. Overall, the preferred BD strategy depends on inter-SP coupling strength and whether computational burden lies in the MP or the SPs.

Jun Wen Law, Bryan K. Mignone, Dharik S. Mallapragada

Low-carbon liquid fuels play a key role in energy system decarbonization scenarios. This study uses a multi-sector capacity expansion model of the contiguous United States to examine fuels production in deeply decarbonized energy systems. Our analysis evaluates how the shares of biofuels, synthetic fuels, and fossil liquid fuels change under varying assumptions about resource constraints (biomass and CO2 sequestration availability), fuel demand distributions, and supply flexibility to produce different fuel products. Across all scenarios examined, biofuels provide a substantial share of liquid fuel supply, while synthetic fuels deploy only when biomass or CO2 sequestration is assumed to be more limited. Fossil liquid fuels remain in all scenarios examined, primarily driven by the extent to which their emissions can be offset with removals. Limiting biomass increases biogenic CO2 capture within biofuel pathways, while limiting sequestration availability increases the share of captured atmospheric (including biogenic) carbon directed toward utilization for synthetic fuel production. While varying assumptions about liquid fuel demand distributions and fuel product supply flexibility alter competition among individual fuel production technologies, broader energy system outcomes are robust to these assumptions. Biomass and CO2 sequestration availability are key drivers of energy system outcomes in deeply decarbonized energy systems.

Youssef Shaker, Jun Wen Law, Audun Botterud et al.

Policies focused on deep decarbonization of regional economies emphasize electricity sector decarbonization alongside electrification of end-uses. There is growing interest in utilizing hydrogen (H2) produced via electricity to displace fossil fuels in difficult-to-electrify sectors. One such case is heavy-duty vehicles (HDV), which represent a substantial and growing share of transport emissions as light-duty vehicles electrify. Here, we assess the bulk energy system impact of decarbonizing the HDV segment via either H2, or drop-in synthetic liquid fuels produced from H2 and CO2. Our analysis soft-links two modeling approaches: (a) a bottom-up transport demand model producing a variety of final energy demand scenarios for the same service demand and (b) a multi-sectoral capacity expansion model that co-optimizes power, H2 and CO2 supply chains under technological and policy constraints to meet exogenous final energy demands. Through a case study of Western Europe in 2040 under deep decarbonization constraints, we quantify the energy system implications of different levels of H2 and synthetic fuels adoption in the HDV sector under scenarios with and without CO2 sequestration. In the absence of CO2 storage, substitution of liquid fossil fuels in HDVs is essential to meet the deep decarbonization constraint across the modeled power, H2 and transport sectors. Additionally, utilizing H2 HDVs reduces decarbonization costs and fossil liquids demand, but could increase natural gas consumption. While H2 HDV adoption reduces the need for direct air capture (DAC), synthetic fuel adoption increases DAC investments and total system costs. The study highlights the trade-offs across transport decarbonization pathways, and underscores the importance of multi-sectoral consideration in decarbonization studies.