Geoffrey Fox

Alireza Jafari, Judy Fox, Geoffrey C. Fox et al.

Seasonal influenza infects millions of people and causes substantial morbidity and mortality in the United States each year, making accurate short-term forecasting a core public-health need. Reliable forecasts of epidemic time series can inform vaccination timing, hospital staffing, and resource allocation, yet the comparative behavior of modern forecasting architectures on infectious-disease surveillance data remains insufficiently characterized. We address this gap through a systematic evaluation of regional influenza forecasting using influenza-like illness surveillance and influenza-associated hospitalization time series under both temporal and spatial generalization settings for 1-4-week-ahead prediction. We compare classical neural network architectures, numerical transformer-based models, pretrained time series foundation models, and LLM-based forecasting approaches. Across tasks, we demonstrate that a mixture-of-experts model that fuses multiple pretrained forecasters achieves the strongest overall performance, indicating that heterogeneous pretrained representations provide complementary predictive information. Our results further show that numerical transformer-based models produce reliable forecasts, while pretraining provides the largest gains at longer horizons, particularly when the pretraining domain is mechanistically aligned with influenza dynamics. In contrast, LLM-based time series methods underperform relative to numerical forecasters in this setting. Finally, we examine hospitalization information as both an auxiliary covariate and a pretraining source. Hospitalization signals provide complementary improvements in selected settings and clarify when additional surveillance streams enhance the robustness of multi-horizon forecasting. These findings provide actionable guidance on model selection, pretraining strategy, and auxiliary-signal use for influenza preparedness.

Meryem Altin Karagoz, O. Ufuk Nalbantoglu, Geoffrey C. Fox

Deep learning has proven very promising for interpreting MRI in brain tumor diagnosis. However, deep learning models suffer from a scarcity of brain MRI datasets for effective training. Self-supervised learning (SSL) models provide data-efficient and remarkable solutions to limited dataset problems. Therefore, this paper introduces a generative SSL model for brain tumor classification in two stages. The first stage is designed to pre-train a Residual Vision Transformer (ResViT) model for MRI synthesis as a pretext task. The second stage includes fine-tuning a ResViT-based classifier model as a downstream task. Accordingly, we aim to leverage local features via CNN and global features via ViT, employing a hybrid CNN-transformer architecture for ResViT in pretext and downstream tasks. Moreover, synthetic MRI images are utilized to balance the training set. The proposed model performs on public BraTs 2023, Figshare, and Kaggle datasets. Furthermore, we compare the proposed model with various deep learning models, including A-UNet, ResNet-9, pix2pix, pGAN for MRI synthesis, and ConvNeXtTiny, ResNet101, DenseNet12, Residual CNN, ViT for classification. According to the results, the proposed model pretraining on the MRI dataset is superior compared to the pretraining on the ImageNet dataset. Overall, the proposed model attains the highest accuracy, achieving 90.56% on the BraTs dataset with T1 sequence, 98.53% on the Figshare, and 98.47% on the Kaggle brain tumor datasets. As a result, the proposed model demonstrates a robust, effective, and successful approach to handling insufficient dataset challenges in MRI analysis by incorporating SSL, fine-tuning, data augmentation, and combining CNN and ViT.

Pulasthi Wickramasinghe, Geoffrey Fox

Multidimensional scaling of gene sequence data has long played a vital role in analysing gene sequence data to identify clusters and patterns. However the computation complexities and memory requirements of state-of-the-art dimensional scaling algorithms make it infeasible to scale to large datasets. In this paper we present an autoencoder-based dimensional reduction model which can easily scale to datasets containing millions of gene sequences, while attaining results comparable to state-of-the-art MDS algorithms with minimal resource requirements. The model also supports out-of-sample data points with a 99.5%+ accuracy based on our experiments. The proposed model is evaluated against DAMDS with a real world fungi gene sequence dataset. The presented results showcase the effectiveness of the autoencoder-based dimension reduction model and its advantages.