Zeyan Li

Mingjie Li, Zeyan Li, Kanglin Yin et al.

Fault diagnosis is critical in many domains, as faults may lead to safety threats or economic losses. In the field of online service systems, operators rely on enormous monitoring data to detect and mitigate failures. Quickly recognizing a small set of root cause indicators for the underlying fault can save much time for failure mitigation. In this paper, we formulate the root cause analysis problem as a new causal inference task named intervention recognition. We proposed a novel unsupervised causal inference-based method named Causal Inference-based Root Cause Analysis (CIRCA). The core idea is a sufficient condition for a monitoring variable to be a root cause indicator, i.e., the change of probability distribution conditioned on the parents in the Causal Bayesian Network (CBN). Towards the application in online service systems, CIRCA constructs a graph among monitoring metrics based on the knowledge of system architecture and a set of causal assumptions. The simulation study illustrates the theoretical reliability of CIRCA. The performance on a real-world dataset further shows that CIRCA can improve the recall of the top-1 recommendation by 25% over the best baseline method.

Zhe Xie, Zeyan Li, Xiao He et al.

Understanding time series is crucial for its application in real-world scenarios. Recently, large language models (LLMs) have been increasingly applied to time series tasks, leveraging their strong language capabilities to enhance various applications. However, research on multimodal LLMs (MLLMs) for time series understanding and reasoning remains limited, primarily due to the scarcity of high-quality datasets that align time series with textual information. This paper introduces ChatTS, a novel MLLM designed for time series analysis. ChatTS treats time series as a modality, similar to how vision MLLMs process images, enabling it to perform both understanding and reasoning with time series. To address the scarcity of training data, we propose an attribute-based method for generating synthetic time series with detailed attribute descriptions. We further introduce Time Series Evol-Instruct, a novel approach that generates diverse time series Q&As, enhancing the model's reasoning capabilities. To the best of our knowledge, ChatTS is the first TS-MLLM that takes multivariate time series as input for understanding and reasoning, which is fine-tuned exclusively on synthetic datasets. We evaluate its performance using benchmark datasets with real-world data, including six alignment tasks and four reasoning tasks. Our results show that ChatTS significantly outperforms existing vision-based MLLMs (e.g., GPT-4o) and text/agent-based LLMs, achieving a 46.0% improvement in alignment tasks and a 25.8% improvement in reasoning tasks. We have open-sourced the source code, model checkpoint and datasets at https://github.com/NetManAIOps/ChatTS.

Zelin Guan, Shengda Zhuo, Zeyan Li et al.

Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) equips large language models (LLMs) with external evidence by retrieving documents at inference time, but it also turns the retrieval corpusinto a sensitive asset. Under a black-box setting, an adversary given a candidate document can infer whether it has been ingested into the RAG knowledge base (i.e., document-level membership inference) solely from query response interactions, thereby leaking corpus coverage and the existence of sensitive topics. Existing RAG MIA methods either rely on soft signals such as semantic similarity, which often yield overlapping member/non-member score distributions and unstable thresholds, or employ explicit confirmation probes whose intent is conspicuous and thus prone to refusal and detection. We propose E-MIA, which converts verifiable hard evidence in the target document (e.g., fine-grained details, proper nouns/technical terms, definitional statements, metadata cues, and causal/constraint relations) into an exam with four objectively gradable question types (FB/SC/MC/T/F), and uses the aggregated exam score across multiple evidence targeted questions as the membership signal. Experiments across multiple datasets and diverse RAG configurations demonstrate that E-MIA improves member/non-member separability in stringent settings while preserving natural, stealthy queries, and we further analyze the impact of question composition and exam length on attack effectiveness.

Haotian Si, Changhua Pei, Xiao He et al.

Driven by the increasingly complex and decision-oriented demands of time series analysis, we introduce the Semantic-Conditional Time Series Reasoning task, which extends conventional time series analysis beyond purely numerical modeling to incorporate contextual and semantic understanding. To further enhance the mode's reasoning capabilities on complex time series problems, we propose a two-round reinforcement learning framework: the first round strengthens the mode's perception of fundamental temporal primitives, while the second focuses on semantic-conditioned reasoning. The resulting model, KairosVL, achieves competitive performance across both synthetic and real-world tasks. Extensive experiments and ablation studies demonstrate that our framework not only boosts performance but also preserves intrinsic reasoning ability and significantly improves generalization to unseen scenarios. To summarize, our work highlights the potential of combining semantic reasoning with temporal modeling and provides a practical framework for real-world time series intelligence, which is in urgent demand.

Jianfeng Xu, Zeyan Li

The rapid scaling of artificial intelligence models has revealed a fundamental tension between model capacity (storage) and inference efficiency (computation). While classical information theory focuses on transmission and storage limits, it lacks a unified physical framework to quantify the thermodynamic costs of generating information from compressed laws versus retrieving it from memory. In this paper, we propose a theoretical framework that treats information processing as an enabling mapping from ontological states to carrier states. We introduce a novel metric, Derivation Entropy, which quantifies the effective work required to compute a target state from a given logical depth. By analyzing the interplay between Shannon entropy (storage) and computational complexity (time/energy), we demonstrate the existence of a critical phase transition point. Below this threshold, memory retrieval is thermodynamically favorable; above it, generative computation becomes the optimal strategy. This "Energy-Time-Space" conservation law provides a physical explanation for the efficiency of generative models and offers a rigorous mathematical bound for designing next-generation, energy-efficient AI architectures. Our findings suggest that the minimization of Derivation Entropy is a governing principle for the evolution of both biological and artificial intelligence.

Zeyan Li, Libing Chen, Yin Tang

Rapid expansion of model size has emerged as a key challenge in time series forecasting. From early Transformer with tens of megabytes to recent architectures like TimesNet with thousands of megabytes, performance gains have often come at the cost of exponentially increasing parameter counts. But is this scaling truly necessary? To question the applicability of the scaling law in time series forecasting, we propose Alinear, an ultra-lightweight forecasting model that achieves competitive performance using only k-level parameters. We introduce a horizon-aware adaptive decomposition mechanism that dynamically rebalances component emphasis across different forecast lengths, alongside a progressive frequency attenuation strategy that achieves stable prediction in various forecasting horizons without incurring the computational overhead of attention mechanisms. Extensive experiments on seven benchmark datasets demonstrate that Alinear consistently outperforms large-scale models while using less than 1% of their parameters, maintaining strong accuracy across both short and ultra-long forecasting horizons. Moreover, to more fairly evaluate model efficiency, we propose a new parameter-aware evaluation metric that highlights the superiority of ALinear under constrained model budgets. Our analysis reveals that the relative importance of trend and seasonal components varies depending on data characteristics rather than following a fixed pattern, validating the necessity of our adaptive design. This work challenges the prevailing belief that larger models are inherently better and suggests a paradigm shift toward more efficient time series modeling.

Zeyan Li, Junjie Chen, Yihao Chen et al.

Localizing root causes for multi-dimensional data is critical to ensure online service systems' reliability. When a fault occurs, only the measure values within specific attribute combinations are abnormal. Such attribute combinations are substantial clues to the underlying root causes and thus are called root causes of multidimensional data. This paper proposes a generic and robust root cause localization approach for multi-dimensional data, PSqueeze. We propose a generic property of root cause for multi-dimensional data, generalized ripple effect (GRE). Based on it, we propose a novel probabilistic cluster method and a robust heuristic search method. Moreover, we identify the importance of determining external root causes and propose an effective method for the first time in literature. Our experiments on two real-world datasets with 5400 faults show that the F1-score of PSqueeze outperforms baselines by 32.89%, while the localization time is around 10 seconds across all cases. The F1-score in determining external root causes of PSqueeze achieves 0.90. Furthermore, case studies in several production systems demonstrate that PSqueeze is helpful to fault diagnosis in the real world.

Haowen Xu, Wenxiao Chen, Nengwen Zhao et al.

To ensure undisrupted business, large Internet companies need to closely monitor various KPIs (e.g., Page Views, number of online users, and number of orders) of its Web applications, to accurately detect anomalies and trigger timely troubleshooting/mitigation. However, anomaly detection for these seasonal KPIs with various patterns and data quality has been a great challenge, especially without labels. In this paper, we proposed Donut, an unsupervised anomaly detection algorithm based on VAE. Thanks to a few of our key techniques, Donut greatly outperforms a state-of-arts supervised ensemble approach and a baseline VAE approach, and its best F-scores range from 0.75 to 0.9 for the studied KPIs from a top global Internet company. We come up with a novel KDE interpretation of reconstruction for Donut, making it the first VAE-based anomaly detection algorithm with solid theoretical explanation.