Emil Schwenger

Alexandros Tsakpinis, Efe Berk Ergüleç, Emil Schwenger et al.

Background: The OpenSSF Scorecard is widely used to assess the security posture of open-source software repositories, with the Maintained metric serving as a key indicator of recent maintenance activities, helping users identify actively maintained projects and potentially abandoned dependencies. However, the metric is inherently retrospective, providing only a short-term snapshot based on the past 90 days of repository activity and offering no insight into the future. This limitation complicates risk assessment for developers and organizations that rely on open-source dependencies. Aims: In this paper, we investigate the feasibility of forecasting future maintenance activities as captured by the OpenSSF Maintained score. Method: Focusing on 3,220 GitHub repositories linked to one of the top 1% most central PyPI libraries, as ranked by PageRank, we reconstruct historical Maintained scores over a three-year period and frame the problem as a multivariate time series forecasting task. We study four target representations: the raw Maintained score (0-10), a bucketed score capturing low (0-2), moderate (3-7), and high (8-10) maintenance levels, the numerical trend slope between consecutive scores, and categorical trend types (downward, stable, upward). We compare a machine learning model (Random Forest) and a deep learning model (LSTM) using training windows of 3-12 months and forecasting horizons of 1-6 months. Results: Our results show that future maintenance activity can be forecasted with meaningful accuracy, particularly when using aggregated representations such as bucketed scores and trend types leading to accuracies above 0.95 and 0.79. Notably, simpler machine learning models perform at least on par with deep learning approaches, suggesting that effective forecasting does not require complex architectures.

Alexandros Tsakpinis, Emil Schwenger, Alexander Pretschner

Background: Open source software ecosystems exhibit dense dependency networks in which maintenance degradation of structurally central packages can propagate widely. Despite increasing attention to open source sustainability, existing support mechanisms lack an explicit, dependencyaware notion of ecosystem-level impact to guide support decisions. Aims: In this paper, we introduce a dependency-aware model of ecosystem impact that captures how changes in maintenance activities propagate through the Python Package Index (PyPI) ecosystem and affect its overall state. Based on this model, we prioritize packages for ecosystem support using our dependency-propagated notion of ecosystem impact. Method: Applying this framework to a snapshot of 718,750 PyPI packages and over 2 million dependencies, we compare our impact-driven support strategy with existing support mechanisms (Tidelift, Ecosyste.ms, and GitHub Sponsors) and with PageRank as a baseline measure of structural importance. Results: Our results show that a large share of the modeled ecosystem impact (approximately 80%) can be attributed to just 0.1% of all PyPI packages when prioritized based on dependency-propagated impact. In contrast, externally defined support sets vary substantially in their alignment with ecosystem impact. We further analyze maintainer reach and metadata accessibility, revealing that ecosystem impact, social footprint, and operational feasibility represent distinct but complementary dimensions of ecosystem support. Conclusions: Dependencyaware ecosystem impact modeling provides a transparent and systematic basis for prioritizing support in large-scale software ecosystems. Our findings suggest that effective support strategies, driven by ecosystem stewards, funding bodies, and organizations operating support programs, should complement existing allocation logic with impact-informed decision making.