Joachim Nyborg

Joachim Nyborg, Charlotte Pelletier, Ira Assent

Large-scale crop type classification is a task at the core of remote sensing efforts with applications of both economic and ecological importance. Current state-of-the-art deep learning methods are based on self-attention and use satellite image time series (SITS) to discriminate crop types based on their unique growth patterns. However, existing methods generalize poorly to regions not seen during training mainly due to not being robust to temporal shifts of the growing season caused by variations in climate. To this end, we propose Thermal Positional Encoding (TPE) for attention-based crop classifiers. Unlike previous positional encoding based on calendar time (e.g. day-of-year), TPE is based on thermal time, which is obtained by accumulating daily average temperatures over the growing season. Since crop growth is directly related to thermal time, but not calendar time, TPE addresses the temporal shifts between different regions to improve generalization. We propose multiple TPE strategies, including learnable methods, to further improve results compared to the common fixed positional encodings. We demonstrate our approach on a crop classification task across four different European regions, where we obtain state-of-the-art generalization results.

Rafael Pablos Sarabia, Joachim Nyborg, Morten Birk et al.

This paper presents a solution to the Weather4Cast 2023 competition, where the goal is to forecast high-resolution precipitation with an 8-hour lead time using lower-resolution satellite radiance images. We propose a simple, yet effective method for spatiotemporal feature learning using a 2D U-Net model, that outperforms the official 3D U-Net baseline in both performance and efficiency. We place emphasis on refining the dataset, through importance sampling and dataset preparation, and show that such techniques have a significant impact on performance. We further study an alternative cross-entropy loss function that improves performance over the standard mean squared error loss, while also enabling models to produce probabilistic outputs. Additional techniques are explored regarding the generation of predictions at different lead times, specifically through Conditioning Lead Time. Lastly, to generate high-resolution forecasts, we evaluate standard and learned upsampling methods. The code and trained parameters are available at https://github.com/rafapablos/w4c23-rainai.

Rafael Pablos Sarabia, Joachim Nyborg, Morten Birk et al.

High-resolution rainfall observations are crucial for weather forecasting, water management, and hazard mitigation. Traditional operational measurements are often biased and low-resolution, limiting their ability to capture local rainfall. Accurate high-resolution rainfall maps require integrating sparse surface observations, yet existing deep learning densification methods are hindered by rainfall's skewed, localized nature, noise, and limited spatio-temporal fusion. We present DropsToGrid, a Neural Process-based method that generates dense rainfall fields by fusing temporal sequences from noisy, irregularly distributed private weather stations with spatial context from radar. Leveraging multi-scale feature extraction, temporal attention, and multi-modal fusion, the model produces stochastic, continuous rainfall estimates and explicitly quantifies uncertainty. Evaluations on real-world datasets demonstrate that DropsToGrid outperforms both operational and deep learning baselines, generating accurate high-resolution rainfall maps with well-calibrated uncertainty, even when only few stations are available and in cross-regional scenarios.

Rafael Pablos Sarabia, Joachim Nyborg, Morten Birk et al.

We present a deep learning model for high-resolution probabilistic precipitation forecasting over an 8-hour horizon in Europe, overcoming the limitations of radar-only deep learning models with short forecast lead times. Our model efficiently integrates multiple data sources - including radar, satellite, and physics-based numerical weather prediction (NWP) - while capturing long-range interactions, resulting in accurate forecasts with robust uncertainty quantification through consistent probabilistic maps. Featuring a compact architecture, it enables more efficient training and faster inference than existing models. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our model surpasses current operational NWP systems, extrapolation-based methods, and deep-learning nowcasting models, setting a new standard for high-resolution precipitation forecasting in Europe, ensuring a balance between accuracy, interpretability, and computational efficiency.

Rafael Pablos Sarabia, Joachim Nyborg, Morten Birk et al.

Precipitation nowcasting is crucial across various industries and plays a significant role in mitigating and adapting to climate change. We introduce an efficient deep learning model for precipitation nowcasting, capable of predicting rainfall up to 8 hours in advance with greater accuracy than existing operational physics-based and extrapolation-based models. Our model leverages multi-source meteorological data and physics-based forecasts to deliver high-resolution predictions in both time and space. It captures complex spatio-temporal dynamics through temporal attention networks and is optimized using data quality maps and dynamic thresholds. Experiments demonstrate that our model outperforms state-of-the-art, and highlight its potential for fast reliable responses to evolving weather conditions.

Joachim Nyborg, Ira Assent

The detection of clouds in satellite images is an essential preprocessing task for big data in remote sensing. Convolutional neural networks (CNNs) have greatly advanced the state-of-the-art in the detection of clouds in satellite images, but existing CNN-based methods are costly as they require large amounts of training images with expensive pixel-level cloud labels. To alleviate this cost, we propose Fixed-Point GAN for Cloud Detection (FCD), a weakly-supervised approach. Training with only image-level labels, we learn fixed-point translation between clear and cloudy images, so only clouds are affected during translation. Doing so enables our approach to predict pixel-level cloud labels by translating satellite images to clear ones and setting a threshold to the difference between the two images. Moreover, we propose FCD+, where we exploit the label-noise robustness of CNNs to refine the prediction of FCD, leading to further improvements. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach on the Landsat-8 Biome cloud detection dataset, where we obtain performance close to existing fully-supervised methods that train with expensive pixel-level labels. By fine-tuning our FCD+ with just 1% of the available pixel-level labels, we match the performance of fully-supervised methods.

Joachim Nyborg, Charlotte Pelletier, Sébastien Lefèvre et al.

The recent developments of deep learning models that capture complex temporal patterns of crop phenology have greatly advanced crop classification from Satellite Image Time Series (SITS). However, when applied to target regions spatially different from the training region, these models perform poorly without any target labels due to the temporal shift of crop phenology between regions. Although various unsupervised domain adaptation techniques have been proposed in recent years, no method explicitly learns the temporal shift of SITS and thus provides only limited benefits for crop classification. To address this, we propose TimeMatch, which explicitly accounts for the temporal shift for improved SITS-based domain adaptation. In TimeMatch, we first estimate the temporal shift from the target to the source region using the predictions of a source-trained model. Then, we re-train the model for the target region by an iterative algorithm where the estimated shift is used to generate accurate target pseudo-labels. Additionally, we introduce an open-access dataset for cross-region adaptation from SITS in four different regions in Europe. On our dataset, we demonstrate that TimeMatch outperforms all competing methods by 11% in average F1-score across five different adaptation scenarios, setting a new state-of-the-art in cross-region adaptation.