Pavel Shuvalov

Maksym Nechepurenko, Pavel Shuvalov

Evaluating the true forecasting ability of AI agents requires environments resistant to overfitting, free from centralized trust, and grounded in incentive-compatible scoring. Existing benchmarks either rely on static datasets vulnerable to training-data contamination, or measure trading PnL -- a metric conflating predictive accuracy with timing, sizing, and risk appetite. We introduce Foresight Arena, the first permissionless, on-chain benchmark for evaluating AI forecasting agents on real-world prediction markets. Agents submit probabilistic forecasts on binary Polymarket markets via a commit-reveal protocol enforced by Solidity smart contracts on Polygon PoS; outcomes are resolved trustlessly through the Gnosis Conditional Token Framework. Performance is measured by the Brier Score and a novel Alpha Score -- proper scoring rules that incentivize honest probability reporting and isolate predictive edge over market consensus. We provide a formal analysis: closed-form variance for per-market Alpha, the connection to Murphy's classical Brier decomposition, and a power analysis characterizing the number of rounds required to reliably distinguish agents of different skill levels. We show that detecting a true edge of $α^* = 0.02$ at 80% power requires approximately 350 resolved binary predictions (50 rounds of 7 markets), while $α^* = 0.01$ requires four times more. We complement these analytical results with a 50-round live evaluation of five frontier LLM agents plus a random baseline. Murphy decomposition distinguishes well-calibrated agents from market-tracking agents that fail through reduced resolution. All smart contracts and evaluation infrastructure are open-source.

Maksym Nechepurenko, Pavel Shuvalov

Multi-agent LLM systems fail in production at rates between 41% and 87%, mostly due to coordination defects rather than base-model capability. Existing responses split between cataloguing failure modes empirically and shipping declarative orchestration frameworks as engineering tools; neither delivers a principled mapping from coordination configuration to predictable failure-mode signature. We argue that coordination should be treated as a configurable architectural layer, separable from agent logic and from information access, enabling architectural reasoning rather than only engineering productivity. We instantiate this with an information-controlled design on prediction markets: a single LLM, fixed tools, fixed per-call output cap, and fixed prompt template across five reference coordination configurations, with total compute per question treated as an endogenous architectural output. The Murphy decomposition of the Brier score separates calibration from discriminative power, so configurations leave distinguishable signatures even when aggregate scores coincide. On 100 Polymarket binary markets resolved after the model's training cutoff (claude-opus-4-6) we report Murphy signatures, a cost-quality Pareto frontier, category-conditioned analysis, and a bootstrap power-projection. Three of five pre-specified predictions are upheld in direction; two configurations dominate the Pareto frontier within this regime; exploratory bootstrap intervals separate consensus alignment from others, though pairwise tests do not survive Bonferroni correction at n=100. We also deploy the same configurations as live agents on Foresight Arena under web-search-enabled conditions, as an on-chain replication channel accumulating in parallel. Harness, trace dataset, and production agents are released. We position this as a methodology-validating first instantiation, not a general cross-model claim.