Jacob Steinhardt

Collin Burns, Haotian Ye, Dan Klein et al. · anthropic

Existing techniques for training language models can be misaligned with the truth: if we train models with imitation learning, they may reproduce errors that humans make; if we train them to generate text that humans rate highly, they may output errors that human evaluators can't detect. We propose circumventing this issue by directly finding latent knowledge inside the internal activations of a language model in a purely unsupervised way. Specifically, we introduce a method for accurately answering yes-no questions given only unlabeled model activations. It works by finding a direction in activation space that satisfies logical consistency properties, such as that a statement and its negation have opposite truth values. We show that despite using no supervision and no model outputs, our method can recover diverse knowledge represented in large language models: across 6 models and 10 question-answering datasets, it outperforms zero-shot accuracy by 4\% on average. We also find that it cuts prompt sensitivity in half and continues to maintain high accuracy even when models are prompted to generate incorrect answers. Our results provide an initial step toward discovering what language models know, distinct from what they say, even when we don't have access to explicit ground truth labels.

Yossi Gandelsman, Alexei A. Efros, Jacob Steinhardt · berkeley

We investigate the CLIP image encoder by analyzing how individual model components affect the final representation. We decompose the image representation as a sum across individual image patches, model layers, and attention heads, and use CLIP's text representation to interpret the summands. Interpreting the attention heads, we characterize each head's role by automatically finding text representations that span its output space, which reveals property-specific roles for many heads (e.g. location or shape). Next, interpreting the image patches, we uncover an emergent spatial localization within CLIP. Finally, we use this understanding to remove spurious features from CLIP and to create a strong zero-shot image segmenter. Our results indicate that a scalable understanding of transformer models is attainable and can be used to repair and improve models.

Alexander Wei, Nika Haghtalab, Jacob Steinhardt · berkeley

Large language models trained for safety and harmlessness remain susceptible to adversarial misuse, as evidenced by the prevalence of "jailbreak" attacks on early releases of ChatGPT that elicit undesired behavior. Going beyond recognition of the issue, we investigate why such attacks succeed and how they can be created. We hypothesize two failure modes of safety training: competing objectives and mismatched generalization. Competing objectives arise when a model's capabilities and safety goals conflict, while mismatched generalization occurs when safety training fails to generalize to a domain for which capabilities exist. We use these failure modes to guide jailbreak design and then evaluate state-of-the-art models, including OpenAI's GPT-4 and Anthropic's Claude v1.3, against both existing and newly designed attacks. We find that vulnerabilities persist despite the extensive red-teaming and safety-training efforts behind these models. Notably, new attacks utilizing our failure modes succeed on every prompt in a collection of unsafe requests from the models' red-teaming evaluation sets and outperform existing ad hoc jailbreaks. Our analysis emphasizes the need for safety-capability parity -- that safety mechanisms should be as sophisticated as the underlying model -- and argues against the idea that scaling alone can resolve these safety failure modes.

Nora Belrose, Igor Ostrovsky, Lev McKinney et al.

We analyze transformers from the perspective of iterative inference, seeking to understand how model predictions are refined layer by layer. To do so, we train an affine probe for each block in a frozen pretrained model, making it possible to decode every hidden state into a distribution over the vocabulary. Our method, the tuned lens, is a refinement of the earlier "logit lens" technique, which yielded useful insights but is often brittle. We test our method on various autoregressive language models with up to 20B parameters, showing it to be more predictive, reliable and unbiased than the logit lens. With causal experiments, we show the tuned lens uses similar features to the model itself. We also find the trajectory of latent predictions can be used to detect malicious inputs with high accuracy. All code needed to reproduce our results can be found at https://github.com/AlignmentResearch/tuned-lens.

Alexander Wei, Wei Hu, Jacob Steinhardt · berkeley

Of theories for why large-scale machine learning models generalize despite being vastly overparameterized, which of their assumptions are needed to capture the qualitative phenomena of generalization in the real world? On one hand, we find that most theoretical analyses fall short of capturing these qualitative phenomena even for kernel regression, when applied to kernels derived from large-scale neural networks (e.g., ResNet-50) and real data (e.g., CIFAR-100). On the other hand, we find that the classical GCV estimator (Craven and Wahba, 1978) accurately predicts generalization risk even in such overparameterized settings. To bolster this empirical finding, we prove that the GCV estimator converges to the generalization risk whenever a local random matrix law holds. Finally, we apply this random matrix theory lens to explain why pretrained representations generalize better as well as what factors govern scaling laws for kernel regression. Our findings suggest that random matrix theory, rather than just being a toy model, may be central to understanding the properties of neural representations in practice.

Shengbang Tong, Erik Jones, Jacob Steinhardt

Deployed multimodal systems can fail in ways that evaluators did not anticipate. In order to find these failures before deployment, we introduce MultiMon, a system that automatically identifies systematic failures -- generalizable, natural-language descriptions of patterns of model failures. To uncover systematic failures, MultiMon scrapes a corpus for examples of erroneous agreement: inputs that produce the same output, but should not. It then prompts a language model (e.g., GPT-4) to find systematic patterns of failure and describe them in natural language. We use MultiMon to find 14 systematic failures (e.g., "ignores quantifiers") of the CLIP text-encoder, each comprising hundreds of distinct inputs (e.g., "a shelf with a few/many books"). Because CLIP is the backbone for most state-of-the-art multimodal systems, these inputs produce failures in Midjourney 5.1, DALL-E, VideoFusion, and others. MultiMon can also steer towards failures relevant to specific use cases, such as self-driving cars. We see MultiMon as a step towards evaluation that autonomously explores the long tail of potential system failures. Code for MULTIMON is available at https://github.com/tsb0601/MultiMon.

Andy Zou, Tristan Xiao, Ryan Jia et al. · berkeley, cmu

Forecasting future world events is a challenging but valuable task. Forecasts of climate, geopolitical conflict, pandemics and economic indicators help shape policy and decision making. In these domains, the judgment of expert humans contributes to the best forecasts. Given advances in language modeling, can these forecasts be automated? To this end, we introduce Autocast, a dataset containing thousands of forecasting questions and an accompanying news corpus. Questions are taken from forecasting tournaments, ensuring high quality, real-world importance, and diversity. The news corpus is organized by date, allowing us to precisely simulate the conditions under which humans made past forecasts (avoiding leakage from the future). Motivated by the difficulty of forecasting numbers across orders of magnitude (e.g. global cases of COVID-19 in 2022), we also curate IntervalQA, a dataset of numerical questions and metrics for calibration. We test language models on our forecasting task and find that performance is far below a human expert baseline. However, performance improves with increased model size and incorporation of relevant information from the news corpus. In sum, Autocast poses a novel challenge for large language models and improved performance could bring large practical benefits.

Mantas Mazeika, Eric Tang, Andy Zou et al. · berkeley, cmu

In recent years, deep neural networks have demonstrated increasingly strong abilities to recognize objects and activities in videos. However, as video understanding becomes widely used in real-world applications, a key consideration is developing human-centric systems that understand not only the content of the video but also how it would affect the wellbeing and emotional state of viewers. To facilitate research in this setting, we introduce two large-scale datasets with over 60,000 videos manually annotated for emotional response and subjective wellbeing. The Video Cognitive Empathy (VCE) dataset contains annotations for distributions of fine-grained emotional responses, allowing models to gain a detailed understanding of affective states. The Video to Valence (V2V) dataset contains annotations of relative pleasantness between videos, which enables predicting a continuous spectrum of wellbeing. In experiments, we show how video models that are primarily trained to recognize actions and find contours of objects can be repurposed to understand human preferences and the emotional content of videos. Although there is room for improvement, predicting wellbeing and emotional response is on the horizon for state-of-the-art models. We hope our datasets can help foster further advances at the intersection of commonsense video understanding and human preference learning.

Kevin Wang, Alexandre Variengien, Arthur Conmy et al.

Research in mechanistic interpretability seeks to explain behaviors of machine learning models in terms of their internal components. However, most previous work either focuses on simple behaviors in small models, or describes complicated behaviors in larger models with broad strokes. In this work, we bridge this gap by presenting an explanation for how GPT-2 small performs a natural language task called indirect object identification (IOI). Our explanation encompasses 26 attention heads grouped into 7 main classes, which we discovered using a combination of interpretability approaches relying on causal interventions. To our knowledge, this investigation is the largest end-to-end attempt at reverse-engineering a natural behavior "in the wild" in a language model. We evaluate the reliability of our explanation using three quantitative criteria--faithfulness, completeness and minimality. Though these criteria support our explanation, they also point to remaining gaps in our understanding. Our work provides evidence that a mechanistic understanding of large ML models is feasible, opening opportunities to scale our understanding to both larger models and more complex tasks.

Neel Nanda, Lawrence Chan, Tom Lieberum et al.

Neural networks often exhibit emergent behavior, where qualitatively new capabilities arise from scaling up the amount of parameters, training data, or training steps. One approach to understanding emergence is to find continuous \textit{progress measures} that underlie the seemingly discontinuous qualitative changes. We argue that progress measures can be found via mechanistic interpretability: reverse-engineering learned behaviors into their individual components. As a case study, we investigate the recently-discovered phenomenon of ``grokking'' exhibited by small transformers trained on modular addition tasks. We fully reverse engineer the algorithm learned by these networks, which uses discrete Fourier transforms and trigonometric identities to convert addition to rotation about a circle. We confirm the algorithm by analyzing the activations and weights and by performing ablations in Fourier space. Based on this understanding, we define progress measures that allow us to study the dynamics of training and split training into three continuous phases: memorization, circuit formation, and cleanup. Our results show that grokking, rather than being a sudden shift, arises from the gradual amplification of structured mechanisms encoded in the weights, followed by the later removal of memorizing components.

Erik Jones, Anca Dragan, Aditi Raghunathan et al.

Auditing large language models for unexpected behaviors is critical to preempt catastrophic deployments, yet remains challenging. In this work, we cast auditing as an optimization problem, where we automatically search for input-output pairs that match a desired target behavior. For example, we might aim to find a non-toxic input that starts with "Barack Obama" that a model maps to a toxic output. This optimization problem is difficult to solve as the set of feasible points is sparse, the space is discrete, and the language models we audit are non-linear and high-dimensional. To combat these challenges, we introduce a discrete optimization algorithm, ARCA, that jointly and efficiently optimizes over inputs and outputs. Our approach automatically uncovers derogatory completions about celebrities (e.g. "Barack Obama is a legalized unborn" -> "child murderer"), produces French inputs that complete to English outputs, and finds inputs that generate a specific name. Our work offers a promising new tool to uncover models' failure-modes before deployment.

Ruiqi Zhong, Peter Zhang, Steve Li et al.

Mining large corpora can generate useful discoveries but is time-consuming for humans. We formulate a new task, D5, that automatically discovers differences between two large corpora in a goal-driven way. The task input is a problem comprising a research goal "$\textit{comparing the side effects of drug A and drug B}$" and a corpus pair (two large collections of patients' self-reported reactions after taking each drug). The output is a language description (discovery) of how these corpora differ (patients taking drug A "$\textit{mention feelings of paranoia}$" more often). We build a D5 system, and to quantitatively measure its performance, we 1) contribute a meta-dataset, OpenD5, aggregating 675 open-ended problems ranging across business, social sciences, humanities, machine learning, and health, and 2) propose a set of unified evaluation metrics: validity, relevance, novelty, and significance. With the dataset and the unified metrics, we confirm that language models can use the goals to propose more relevant, novel, and significant candidate discoveries. Finally, our system produces discoveries previously unknown to the authors on a wide range of applications in OpenD5, including temporal and demographic differences in discussion topics, political stances and stereotypes in speech, insights in commercial reviews, and error patterns in NLP models.

Yanda Chen, Ruiqi Zhong, Narutatsu Ri et al.

Large language models (LLMs) are trained to imitate humans to explain human decisions. However, do LLMs explain themselves? Can they help humans build mental models of how LLMs process different inputs? To answer these questions, we propose to evaluate $\textbf{counterfactual simulatability}$ of natural language explanations: whether an explanation can enable humans to precisely infer the model's outputs on diverse counterfactuals of the explained input. For example, if a model answers "yes" to the input question "Can eagles fly?" with the explanation "all birds can fly", then humans would infer from the explanation that it would also answer "yes" to the counterfactual input "Can penguins fly?". If the explanation is precise, then the model's answer should match humans' expectations. We implemented two metrics based on counterfactual simulatability: precision and generality. We generated diverse counterfactuals automatically using LLMs. We then used these metrics to evaluate state-of-the-art LLMs (e.g., GPT-4) on two tasks: multi-hop factual reasoning and reward modeling. We found that LLM's explanations have low precision and that precision does not correlate with plausibility. Therefore, naively optimizing human approvals (e.g., RLHF) may not be a sufficient solution.

Danny Halawi, Jean-Stanislas Denain, Jacob Steinhardt

Modern language models can imitate complex patterns through few-shot learning, enabling them to complete challenging tasks without fine-tuning. However, imitation can also lead models to reproduce inaccuracies or harmful content if present in the context. We study harmful imitation through the lens of a model's internal representations, and identify two related phenomena: "overthinking" and "false induction heads". The first phenomenon, overthinking, appears when we decode predictions from intermediate layers, given correct vs. incorrect few-shot demonstrations. At early layers, both demonstrations induce similar model behavior, but the behavior diverges sharply at some "critical layer", after which the accuracy given incorrect demonstrations progressively decreases. The second phenomenon, false induction heads, are a possible mechanistic cause of overthinking: these are heads in late layers that attend to and copy false information from previous demonstrations, and whose ablation reduces overthinking. Beyond scientific understanding, our results suggest that studying intermediate model computations could be a promising avenue for understanding and guarding against harmful model behaviors.

Meena Jagadeesan, Nikhil Garg, Jacob Steinhardt

Algorithmic recommender systems such as Spotify and Netflix affect not only consumer behavior but also producer incentives. Producers seek to create content that will be shown by the recommendation algorithm, which can impact both the diversity and quality of their content. In this work, we investigate the resulting supply-side equilibria in personalized content recommender systems. We model users and content as $D$-dimensional vectors, the recommendation algorithm as showing each user the content with highest dot product, and producers as maximizing the number of users who are recommended their content minus the cost of production. Two key features of our model are that the producer decision space is multi-dimensional and the user base is heterogeneous, which contrasts with classical low-dimensional models. Multi-dimensionality and heterogeneity create the potential for specialization, where different producers create different types of content at equilibrium. Using a duality argument, we derive necessary and sufficient conditions for whether specialization occurs: these conditions depend on the extent to which users are heterogeneous and to which producers can perform well on all dimensions at once without incurring a high cost. Then, we characterize the distribution of content at equilibrium in concrete settings with two populations of users. Lastly, we show that specialization can enable producers to achieve positive profit at equilibrium, which means that specialization can reduce the competitiveness of the marketplace. At a conceptual level, our analysis of supply-side competition takes a step towards elucidating how personalized recommendations shape the marketplace of digital goods, and towards understanding what new phenomena arise in multi-dimensional competitive settings.

Meena Jagadeesan, Michael I. Jordan, Jacob Steinhardt et al.

As the scale of machine learning models increases, trends such as scaling laws anticipate consistent downstream improvements in predictive accuracy. However, these trends take the perspective of a single model-provider in isolation, while in reality providers often compete with each other for users. In this work, we demonstrate that competition can fundamentally alter the behavior of these scaling trends, even causing overall predictive accuracy across users to be non-monotonic or decreasing with scale. We define a model of competition for classification tasks, and use data representations as a lens for studying the impact of increases in scale. We find many settings where improving data representation quality (as measured by Bayes risk) decreases the overall predictive accuracy across users (i.e., social welfare) for a marketplace of competing model-providers. Our examples range from closed-form formulas in simple settings to simulations with pretrained representations on CIFAR-10. At a conceptual level, our work suggests that favorable scaling trends for individual model-providers need not translate to downstream improvements in social welfare in marketplaces with multiple model providers.

Yongyi Yang, Jacob Steinhardt, Wei Hu

Recent work has observed an intriguing ''Neural Collapse'' phenomenon in well-trained neural networks, where the last-layer representations of training samples with the same label collapse into each other. This appears to suggest that the last-layer representations are completely determined by the labels, and do not depend on the intrinsic structure of input distribution. We provide evidence that this is not a complete description, and that the apparent collapse hides important fine-grained structure in the representations. Specifically, even when representations apparently collapse, the small amount of remaining variation can still faithfully and accurately captures the intrinsic structure of input distribution. As an example, if we train on CIFAR-10 using only 5 coarse-grained labels (by combining two classes into one super-class) until convergence, we can reconstruct the original 10-class labels from the learned representations via unsupervised clustering. The reconstructed labels achieve $93\%$ accuracy on the CIFAR-10 test set, nearly matching the normal CIFAR-10 accuracy for the same architecture. We also provide an initial theoretical result showing the fine-grained representation structure in a simplified synthetic setting. Our results show concretely how the structure of input data can play a significant role in determining the fine-grained structure of neural representations, going beyond what Neural Collapse predicts.

Jiaxin Wen, Ruiqi Zhong, Akbir Khan et al.

Language models (LMs) can produce errors that are hard to detect for humans, especially when the task is complex. RLHF, the most popular post-training method, may exacerbate this problem: to achieve higher rewards, LMs might get better at convincing humans that they are right even when they are wrong. We study this phenomenon under a standard RLHF pipeline, calling it "U-SOPHISTRY" since it is Unintended by model developers. Specifically, we ask time-constrained (e.g., 3-10 minutes) human subjects to evaluate the correctness of model outputs and calculate humans' accuracy against gold labels. On a question-answering task (QuALITY) and programming task (APPS), RLHF makes LMs better at convincing our subjects but not at completing the task correctly. RLHF also makes the model harder to evaluate: our subjects' false positive rate increases by 24.1% on QuALITY and 18.3% on APPS. Finally, we show that probing, a state-of-the-art approach for detecting Intended Sophistry (e.g. backdoored LMs), does not generalize to U-SOPHISTRY. Our results highlight an important failure mode of RLHF and call for more research in assisting humans to align them.

Jean-Stanislas Denain, Jacob Steinhardt

Model visualizations provide information that outputs alone might miss. But can we trust that model visualizations reflect model behavior? For instance, can they diagnose abnormal behavior such as planted backdoors or overregularization? To evaluate visualization methods, we test whether they assign different visualizations to anomalously trained models and normal models. We find that while existing methods can detect models with starkly anomalous behavior, they struggle to identify more subtle anomalies. Moreover, they often fail to recognize the inputs that induce anomalous behavior, e.g. images containing a spurious cue. These results reveal blind spots and limitations of some popular model visualizations. By introducing a novel evaluation framework for visualizations, our work paves the way for developing more reliable model transparency methods in the future.

Kush Bhatia, Wenshuo Guo, Jacob Steinhardt

Specifying reward functions for complex tasks like object manipulation or driving is challenging to do by hand. Reward learning seeks to address this by learning a reward model using human feedback on selected query policies. This shifts the burden of reward specification to the optimal design of the queries. We propose a theoretical framework for studying reward learning and the associated optimal experiment design problem. Our framework models rewards and policies as nonparametric functions belonging to subsets of Reproducing Kernel Hilbert Spaces (RKHSs). The learner receives (noisy) oracle access to a true reward and must output a policy that performs well under the true reward. For this setting, we first derive non-asymptotic excess risk bounds for a simple plug-in estimator based on ridge regression. We then solve the query design problem by optimizing these risk bounds with respect to the choice of query set and obtain a finite sample statistical rate, which depends primarily on the eigenvalue spectrum of a certain linear operator on the RKHSs. Despite the generality of these results, our bounds are stronger than previous bounds developed for more specialized problems. We specifically show that the well-studied problem of Gaussian process (GP) bandit optimization is a special case of our framework, and that our bounds either improve or are competitive with known regret guarantees for the Matérn kernel.

Grace Luo, Jiahai Feng, Trevor Darrell et al.

Existing approaches for analyzing neural network activations, such as PCA and sparse autoencoders, rely on strong structural assumptions. Generative models offer an alternative: they can uncover structure without such assumptions and act as priors that improve intervention fidelity. We explore this direction by training diffusion models on one billion residual stream activations, creating "meta-models" that learn the distribution of a network's internal states. We find that diffusion loss decreases smoothly with compute and reliably predicts downstream utility. In particular, applying the meta-model's learned prior to steering interventions improves fluency, with larger gains as loss decreases. Moreover, the meta-model's neurons increasingly isolate concepts into individual units, with sparse probing scores that scale as loss decreases. These results suggest generative meta-models offer a scalable path toward interpretability without restrictive structural assumptions. Project page: https://generative-latent-prior.github.io.

Meena Jagadeesan, Michael I. Jordan, Jacob Steinhardt

Emerging marketplaces for large language models and other large-scale machine learning (ML) models appear to exhibit market concentration, which has raised concerns about whether there are insurmountable barriers to entry in such markets. In this work, we study this issue from both an economic and an algorithmic point of view, focusing on a phenomenon that reduces barriers to entry. Specifically, an incumbent company risks reputational damage unless its model is sufficiently aligned with safety objectives, whereas a new company can more easily avoid reputational damage. To study this issue formally, we define a multi-objective high-dimensional regression framework that captures reputational damage, and we characterize the number of data points that a new company needs to enter the market. Our results demonstrate how multi-objective considerations can fundamentally reduce barriers to entry -- the required number of data points can be significantly smaller than the incumbent company's dataset size. En route to proving these results, we develop scaling laws for high-dimensional linear regression in multi-objective environments, showing that the scaling rate becomes slower when the dataset size is large, which could be of independent interest.

Jiahai Feng, Jacob Steinhardt

To correctly use in-context information, language models (LMs) must bind entities to their attributes. For example, given a context describing a "green square" and a "blue circle", LMs must bind the shapes to their respective colors. We analyze LM representations and identify the binding ID mechanism: a general mechanism for solving the binding problem, which we observe in every sufficiently large model from the Pythia and LLaMA families. Using causal interventions, we show that LMs' internal activations represent binding information by attaching binding ID vectors to corresponding entities and attributes. We further show that binding ID vectors form a continuous subspace, in which distances between binding ID vectors reflect their discernability. Overall, our results uncover interpretable strategies in LMs for representing symbolic knowledge in-context, providing a step towards understanding general in-context reasoning in large-scale LMs.

Yaowen Ye, Cassidy Laidlaw, Jacob Steinhardt

Language model (LM) post-training relies on two stages of human supervision: task demonstrations for supervised finetuning (SFT), followed by preference comparisons for reinforcement learning from human feedback (RLHF). As LMs become more capable, the tasks they are given become harder to supervise. Will post-training remain effective under unreliable supervision? To test this, we simulate unreliable demonstrations and comparison feedback using small LMs and time-constrained humans. We find that in the presence of unreliable supervision, SFT still retains some effectiveness, but DPO (a common RLHF algorithm) fails to improve the model beyond SFT. To address this, we propose iterative label refinement (ILR) as an alternative to RLHF. ILR improves the SFT data by using comparison feedback to decide whether human demonstrations should be replaced by model-generated alternatives, then retrains the model via SFT on the updated data. SFT+ILR outperforms SFT+DPO on several tasks with unreliable supervision (math, coding, and safe instruction-following). Our findings suggest that as LMs are used for complex tasks where human supervision is unreliable, RLHF may no longer be the best use of human comparison feedback; instead, it is better to direct feedback towards improving the training data rather than continually training the model. Our code and data are available at https://github.com/helloelwin/iterative-label-refinement.

Yaodong Yu, Zitong Yang, Alexander Wei et al.

We propose a metric -- Projection Norm -- to predict a model's performance on out-of-distribution (OOD) data without access to ground truth labels. Projection Norm first uses model predictions to pseudo-label test samples and then trains a new model on the pseudo-labels. The more the new model's parameters differ from an in-distribution model, the greater the predicted OOD error. Empirically, our approach outperforms existing methods on both image and text classification tasks and across different network architectures. Theoretically, we connect our approach to a bound on the test error for overparameterized linear models. Furthermore, we find that Projection Norm is the only approach that achieves non-trivial detection performance on adversarial examples. Our code is available at https://github.com/yaodongyu/ProjNorm.

Logan Engstrom, Andrew Ilyas, Shibani Santurkar et al.

Dataset replication is a useful tool for assessing whether improvements in test accuracy on a specific benchmark correspond to improvements in models' ability to generalize reliably. In this work, we present unintuitive yet significant ways in which standard approaches to dataset replication introduce statistical bias, skewing the resulting observations. We study ImageNet-v2, a replication of the ImageNet dataset on which models exhibit a significant (11-14%) drop in accuracy, even after controlling for a standard human-in-the-loop measure of data quality. We show that after correcting for the identified statistical bias, only an estimated $3.6\% \pm 1.5\%$ of the original $11.7\% \pm 1.0\%$ accuracy drop remains unaccounted for. We conclude with concrete recommendations for recognizing and avoiding bias in dataset replication. Code for our study is publicly available at http://github.com/MadryLab/dataset-replication-analysis .

Alexander Pan, Erik Jones, Meena Jagadeesan et al.

Language models influence the external world: they query APIs that read and write to web pages, generate content that shapes human behavior, and run system commands as autonomous agents. These interactions form feedback loops: LLM outputs affect the world, which in turn affect subsequent LLM outputs. In this work, we show that feedback loops can cause in-context reward hacking (ICRH), where the LLM at test-time optimizes a (potentially implicit) objective but creates negative side effects in the process. For example, consider an LLM agent deployed to increase Twitter engagement; the LLM may retrieve its previous tweets into the context window and make them more controversial, increasing engagement but also toxicity. We identify and study two processes that lead to ICRH: output-refinement and policy-refinement. For these processes, evaluations on static datasets are insufficient -- they miss the feedback effects and thus cannot capture the most harmful behavior. In response, we provide three recommendations for evaluation to capture more instances of ICRH. As AI development accelerates, the effects of feedback loops will proliferate, increasing the need to understand their role in shaping LLM behavior.

Danny Halawi, Fred Zhang, Chen Yueh-Han et al. · berkeley, deepmind

Forecasting future events is important for policy and decision making. In this work, we study whether language models (LMs) can forecast at the level of competitive human forecasters. Towards this goal, we develop a retrieval-augmented LM system designed to automatically search for relevant information, generate forecasts, and aggregate predictions. To facilitate our study, we collect a large dataset of questions from competitive forecasting platforms. Under a test set published after the knowledge cut-offs of our LMs, we evaluate the end-to-end performance of our system against the aggregates of human forecasts. On average, the system nears the crowd aggregate of competitive forecasters, and in some settings surpasses it. Our work suggests that using LMs to forecast the future could provide accurate predictions at scale and help to inform institutional decision making.

Lisa Dunlap, Yuhui Zhang, Xiaohan Wang et al. · stanford

How do two sets of images differ? Discerning set-level differences is crucial for understanding model behaviors and analyzing datasets, yet manually sifting through thousands of images is impractical. To aid in this discovery process, we explore the task of automatically describing the differences between two $\textbf{sets}$ of images, which we term Set Difference Captioning. This task takes in image sets $D_A$ and $D_B$, and outputs a description that is more often true on $D_A$ than $D_B$. We outline a two-stage approach that first proposes candidate difference descriptions from image sets and then re-ranks the candidates by checking how well they can differentiate the two sets. We introduce VisDiff, which first captions the images and prompts a language model to propose candidate descriptions, then re-ranks these descriptions using CLIP. To evaluate VisDiff, we collect VisDiffBench, a dataset with 187 paired image sets with ground truth difference descriptions. We apply VisDiff to various domains, such as comparing datasets (e.g., ImageNet vs. ImageNetV2), comparing classification models (e.g., zero-shot CLIP vs. supervised ResNet), summarizing model failure modes (supervised ResNet), characterizing differences between generative models (e.g., StableDiffusionV1 and V2), and discovering what makes images memorable. Using VisDiff, we are able to find interesting and previously unknown differences in datasets and models, demonstrating its utility in revealing nuanced insights.

Katie Kang, Amrith Setlur, Dibya Ghosh et al. · berkeley, cmu

Despite the remarkable capabilities of modern large language models (LLMs), the mechanisms behind their problem-solving abilities remain elusive. In this work, we aim to better understand how the learning dynamics of LLM finetuning shapes downstream generalization. Our analysis focuses on reasoning tasks, whose problem structure allows us to distinguish between memorization (the exact replication of reasoning steps from the training data) and performance (the correctness of the final solution). We find that a model's generalization behavior can be effectively characterized by a training metric we call pre-memorization train accuracy: the accuracy of model samples on training queries before they begin to copy the exact reasoning steps from the training set. On the dataset level, this metric is able to reliably predict test accuracy, achieving $R^2$ of around or exceeding 0.9 across various models (Llama3 8, Gemma2 9B), datasets (GSM8k, MATH), and training configurations. On a per-example level, this metric is also indicative of whether individual model predictions are robust to perturbations in the training query. By connecting a model's learning behavior to its generalization, pre-memorization train accuracy can guide targeted improvements to training strategies. We focus on data curation as an example, and show that prioritizing examples with low pre-memorization accuracy leads to 1.5-2x improvements in data efficiency compared to i.i.d. data scaling, and outperforms other standard data curation techniques.

Xinyan Hu, Kayo Yin, Michael I. Jordan et al.

To perform few-shot learning, language models extract signals from a few input-label pairs, aggregate these into a learned prediction rule, and apply this rule to new inputs. How is this implemented in the forward pass of modern transformer models? To explore this question, we study a structured family of few-shot learning tasks for which the true prediction rule is to add an integer $k$ to the input. We introduce a novel optimization method that localizes the model's few-shot ability to only a few attention heads. We then perform an in-depth analysis of individual heads, via dimensionality reduction and decomposition. As an example, on Llama-3-8B-instruct, we reduce its mechanism on our tasks to just three attention heads with six-dimensional subspaces, where four dimensions track the unit digit with trigonometric functions at periods $2$, $5$, and $10$, and two dimensions track magnitude with low-frequency components. To deepen our understanding of the mechanism, we also derive a mathematical identity relating ``aggregation'' and ``extraction'' subspaces for attention heads, allowing us to track the flow of information from individual examples to a final aggregated concept. Using this, we identify a self-correction mechanism where mistakes learned from earlier demonstrations are suppressed by later demonstrations. Our results demonstrate how tracking low-dimensional subspaces of localized heads across a forward pass can provide insight into fine-grained computational structures in language models.

Danny Halawi, Alexander Wei, Eric Wallace et al.

Black-box finetuning is an emerging interface for adapting state-of-the-art language models to user needs. However, such access may also let malicious actors undermine model safety. To demonstrate the challenge of defending finetuning interfaces, we introduce covert malicious finetuning, a method to compromise model safety via finetuning while evading detection. Our method constructs a malicious dataset where every individual datapoint appears innocuous, but finetuning on the dataset teaches the model to respond to encoded harmful requests with encoded harmful responses. Applied to GPT-4, our method produces a finetuned model that acts on harmful instructions 99% of the time and avoids detection by defense mechanisms such as dataset inspection, safety evaluations, and input/output classifiers. Our findings question whether black-box finetuning access can be secured against sophisticated adversaries.

Erik Jones, Anca Dragan, Jacob Steinhardt

Developers try to evaluate whether an AI system can be misused by adversaries before releasing it; for example, they might test whether a model enables cyberoffense, user manipulation, or bioterrorism. In this work, we show that individually testing models for misuse is inadequate; adversaries can misuse combinations of models even when each individual model is safe. The adversary accomplishes this by first decomposing tasks into subtasks, then solving each subtask with the best-suited model. For example, an adversary might solve challenging-but-benign subtasks with an aligned frontier model, and easy-but-malicious subtasks with a weaker misaligned model. We study two decomposition methods: manual decomposition where a human identifies a natural decomposition of a task, and automated decomposition where a weak model generates benign tasks for a frontier model to solve, then uses the solutions in-context to solve the original task. Using these decompositions, we empirically show that adversaries can create vulnerable code, explicit images, python scripts for hacking, and manipulative tweets at much higher rates with combinations of models than either individual model. Our work suggests that even perfectly-aligned frontier systems can enable misuse without ever producing malicious outputs, and that red-teaming efforts should extend beyond single models in isolation.

Yossi Gandelsman, Alexei A. Efros, Jacob Steinhardt

We interpret the function of individual neurons in CLIP by automatically describing them using text. Analyzing the direct effects (i.e. the flow from a neuron through the residual stream to the output) or the indirect effects (overall contribution) fails to capture the neurons' function in CLIP. Therefore, we present the "second-order lens", analyzing the effect flowing from a neuron through the later attention heads, directly to the output. We find that these effects are highly selective: for each neuron, the effect is significant for <2% of the images. Moreover, each effect can be approximated by a single direction in the text-image space of CLIP. We describe neurons by decomposing these directions into sparse sets of text representations. The sets reveal polysemantic behavior - each neuron corresponds to multiple, often unrelated, concepts (e.g. ships and cars). Exploiting this neuron polysemy, we mass-produce "semantic" adversarial examples by generating images with concepts spuriously correlated to the incorrect class. Additionally, we use the second-order effects for zero-shot segmentation, outperforming previous methods. Our results indicate that an automated interpretation of neurons can be used for model deception and for introducing new model capabilities.

Erik Jones, Jacob Steinhardt

Large language models generate complex, open-ended outputs: instead of outputting a class label they write summaries, generate dialogue, or produce working code. In order to asses the reliability of these open-ended generation systems, we aim to identify qualitative categories of erroneous behavior, beyond identifying individual errors. To hypothesize and test for such qualitative errors, we draw inspiration from human cognitive biases -- systematic patterns of deviation from rational judgement. Specifically, we use cognitive biases as motivation to (i) generate hypotheses for problems that models may have, and (ii) develop experiments that elicit these problems. Using code generation as a case study, we find that OpenAI's Codex errs predictably based on how the input prompt is framed, adjusts outputs towards anchors, and is biased towards outputs that mimic frequent training examples. We then use our framework to elicit high-impact errors such as incorrectly deleting files. Our results indicate that experimental methodology from cognitive science can help characterize how machine learning systems behave.

Ruiqi Zhong, Charlie Snell, Dan Klein et al.

How do two distributions of texts differ? Humans are slow at answering this, since discovering patterns might require tediously reading through hundreds of samples. We propose to automatically summarize the differences by "learning a natural language hypothesis": given two distributions $D_{0}$ and $D_{1}$, we search for a description that is more often true for $D_{1}$, e.g., "is military-related." To tackle this problem, we fine-tune GPT-3 to propose descriptions with the prompt: "[samples of $D_{0}$] + [samples of $D_{1}$] + the difference between them is_____." We then re-rank the descriptions by checking how often they hold on a larger set of samples with a learned verifier. On a benchmark of 54 real-world binary classification tasks, while GPT-3 Curie (13B) only generates a description similar to human annotation 7% of the time, the performance reaches 61% with fine-tuning and re-ranking, and our best system using GPT-3 Davinci (175B) reaches 76%. We apply our system to describe distribution shifts, debug dataset shortcuts, summarize unknown tasks, and label text clusters, and present analyses based on automatically generated descriptions.

Alexander Pan, Kush Bhatia, Jacob Steinhardt

Reward hacking -- where RL agents exploit gaps in misspecified reward functions -- has been widely observed, but not yet systematically studied. To understand how reward hacking arises, we construct four RL environments with misspecified rewards. We investigate reward hacking as a function of agent capabilities: model capacity, action space resolution, observation space noise, and training time. More capable agents often exploit reward misspecifications, achieving higher proxy reward and lower true reward than less capable agents. Moreover, we find instances of phase transitions: capability thresholds at which the agent's behavior qualitatively shifts, leading to a sharp decrease in the true reward. Such phase transitions pose challenges to monitoring the safety of ML systems. To address this, we propose an anomaly detection task for aberrant policies and offer several baseline detectors.

Dan Hendrycks, Andy Zou, Mantas Mazeika et al.

In real-world applications of machine learning, reliable and safe systems must consider measures of performance beyond standard test set accuracy. These other goals include out-of-distribution (OOD) robustness, prediction consistency, resilience to adversaries, calibrated uncertainty estimates, and the ability to detect anomalous inputs. However, improving performance towards these goals is often a balancing act that today's methods cannot achieve without sacrificing performance on other safety axes. For instance, adversarial training improves adversarial robustness but sharply degrades other classifier performance metrics. Similarly, strong data augmentation and regularization techniques often improve OOD robustness but harm anomaly detection, raising the question of whether a Pareto improvement on all existing safety measures is possible. To meet this challenge, we design a new data augmentation strategy utilizing the natural structural complexity of pictures such as fractals, which outperforms numerous baselines, is near Pareto-optimal, and roundly improves safety measures.

Alan Pham, Eunice Chan, Vikranth Srivatsa et al.

Overparameterization is shown to result in poor test accuracy on rare subgroups under a variety of settings where subgroup information is known. To gain a more complete picture, we consider the case where subgroup information is unknown. We investigate the effect of model size on worst-group generalization under empirical risk minimization (ERM) across a wide range of settings, varying: 1) architectures (ResNet, VGG, or BERT), 2) domains (vision or natural language processing), 3) model size (width or depth), and 4) initialization (with pre-trained or random weights). Our systematic evaluation reveals that increasing model size does not hurt, and may help, worst-group test performance under ERM across all setups. In particular, increasing pre-trained model size consistently improves performance on Waterbirds and MultiNLI. We advise practitioners to use larger pre-trained models when subgroup labels are unknown.

Dan Hendrycks, Mantas Mazeika, Andy Zou et al.

When making everyday decisions, people are guided by their conscience, an internal sense of right and wrong. By contrast, artificial agents are currently not endowed with a moral sense. As a consequence, they may learn to behave immorally when trained on environments that ignore moral concerns, such as violent video games. With the advent of generally capable agents that pretrain on many environments, it will become necessary to mitigate inherited biases from environments that teach immoral behavior. To facilitate the development of agents that avoid causing wanton harm, we introduce Jiminy Cricket, an environment suite of 25 text-based adventure games with thousands of diverse, morally salient scenarios. By annotating every possible game state, the Jiminy Cricket environments robustly evaluate whether agents can act morally while maximizing reward. Using models with commonsense moral knowledge, we create an elementary artificial conscience that assesses and guides agents. In extensive experiments, we find that the artificial conscience approach can steer agents towards moral behavior without sacrificing performance.

Dan Hendrycks, Nicholas Carlini, John Schulman et al.

Machine learning (ML) systems are rapidly increasing in size, are acquiring new capabilities, and are increasingly deployed in high-stakes settings. As with other powerful technologies, safety for ML should be a leading research priority. In response to emerging safety challenges in ML, such as those introduced by recent large-scale models, we provide a new roadmap for ML Safety and refine the technical problems that the field needs to address. We present four problems ready for research, namely withstanding hazards ("Robustness"), identifying hazards ("Monitoring"), reducing inherent model hazards ("Alignment"), and reducing systemic hazards ("Systemic Safety"). Throughout, we clarify each problem's motivation and provide concrete research directions.

Meena Jagadeesan, Alexander Wei, Yixin Wang et al.

Large-scale, two-sided matching platforms must find market outcomes that align with user preferences while simultaneously learning these preferences from data. Classical notions of stability (Gale and Shapley, 1962; Shapley and Shubik, 1971) are unfortunately of limited value in the learning setting, given that preferences are inherently uncertain and destabilizing while they are being learned. To bridge this gap, we develop a framework and algorithms for learning stable market outcomes under uncertainty. Our primary setting is matching with transferable utilities, where the platform both matches agents and sets monetary transfers between them. We design an incentive-aware learning objective that captures the distance of a market outcome from equilibrium. Using this objective, we analyze the complexity of learning as a function of preference structure, casting learning as a stochastic multi-armed bandit problem. Algorithmically, we show that "optimism in the face of uncertainty," the principle underlying many bandit algorithms, applies to a primal-dual formulation of matching with transfers and leads to near-optimal regret bounds. Our work takes a first step toward elucidating when and how stable matchings arise in large, data-driven marketplaces.

Frances Ding, Jean-Stanislas Denain, Jacob Steinhardt

To understand neural network behavior, recent works quantitatively compare different networks' learned representations using canonical correlation analysis (CCA), centered kernel alignment (CKA), and other dissimilarity measures. Unfortunately, these widely used measures often disagree on fundamental observations, such as whether deep networks differing only in random initialization learn similar representations. These disagreements raise the question: which, if any, of these dissimilarity measures should we believe? We provide a framework to ground this question through a concrete test: measures should have sensitivity to changes that affect functional behavior, and specificity against changes that do not. We quantify this through a variety of functional behaviors including probing accuracy and robustness to distribution shift, and examine changes such as varying random initialization and deleting principal components. We find that current metrics exhibit different weaknesses, note that a classical baseline performs surprisingly well, and highlight settings where all metrics appear to fail, thus providing a challenge set for further improvement.

Ruiqi Zhong, Dhruba Ghosh, Dan Klein et al.

Larger language models have higher accuracy on average, but are they better on every single instance (datapoint)? Some work suggests larger models have higher out-of-distribution robustness, while other work suggests they have lower accuracy on rare subgroups. To understand these differences, we investigate these models at the level of individual instances. However, one major challenge is that individual predictions are highly sensitive to noise in the randomness in training. We develop statistically rigorous methods to address this, and after accounting for pretraining and finetuning noise, we find that our BERT-Large is worse than BERT-Mini on at least 1-4% of instances across MNLI, SST-2, and QQP, compared to the overall accuracy improvement of 2-10%. We also find that finetuning noise increases with model size and that instance-level accuracy has momentum: improvement from BERT-Mini to BERT-Medium correlates with improvement from BERT-Medium to BERT-Large. Our findings suggest that instance-level predictions provide a rich source of information; we therefore, recommend that researchers supplement model weights with model predictions.

Kush Bhatia, Peter L. Bartlett, Anca D. Dragan et al.

Traditional learning approaches for classification implicitly assume that each mistake has the same cost. In many real-world problems though, the utility of a decision depends on the underlying context $x$ and decision $y$. However, directly incorporating these utilities into the learning objective is often infeasible since these can be quite complex and difficult for humans to specify. We formally study this as agnostic learning with unknown utilities: given a dataset $S = \{x_1, \ldots, x_n\}$ where each data point $x_i \sim \mathcal{D}$, the objective of the learner is to output a function $f$ in some class of decision functions $\mathcal{F}$ with small excess risk. This risk measures the performance of the output predictor $f$ with respect to the best predictor in the class $\mathcal{F}$ on the unknown underlying utility $u^*$. This utility $u^*$ is not assumed to have any specific structure. This raises an interesting question whether learning is even possible in our setup, given that obtaining a generalizable estimate of utility $u^*$ might not be possible from finitely many samples. Surprisingly, we show that estimating the utilities of only the sampled points~$S$ suffices to learn a decision function which generalizes well. We study mechanisms for eliciting information which allow a learner to estimate the utilities $u^*$ on the set $S$. We introduce a family of elicitation mechanisms by generalizing comparisons, called the $k$-comparison oracle, which enables the learner to ask for comparisons across $k$ different inputs $x$ at once. We show that the excess risk in our agnostic learning framework decreases at a rate of $O\left(\frac{1}{k} \right)$. This result brings out an interesting accuracy-elicitation trade-off -- as the order $k$ of the oracle increases, the comparative queries become harder to elicit from humans but allow for more accurate learning.

Yaodong Yu, Zitong Yang, Edgar Dobriban et al.

Adversarially trained models exhibit a large generalization gap: they can interpolate the training set even for large perturbation radii, but at the cost of large test error on clean samples. To investigate this gap, we decompose the test risk into its bias and variance components and study their behavior as a function of adversarial training perturbation radii ($\varepsilon$). We find that the bias increases monotonically with $\varepsilon$ and is the dominant term in the risk. Meanwhile, the variance is unimodal as a function of $\varepsilon$, peaking near the interpolation threshold for the training set. This characteristic behavior occurs robustly across different datasets and also for other robust training procedures such as randomized smoothing. It thus provides a test for proposed explanations of the generalization gap. We find that some existing explanations fail this test--for instance, by predicting a monotonically increasing variance curve. This underscores the power of bias-variance decompositions in modern settings-by providing two measurements instead of one, they can rule out more explanations than test accuracy alone. We also show that bias and variance can provide useful guidance for scalably reducing the generalization gap, highlighting pre-training and unlabeled data as promising routes.

Charlie Snell, Ruiqi Zhong, Dan Klein et al.

Why do models often attend to salient words, and how does this evolve throughout training? We approximate model training as a two stage process: early on in training when the attention weights are uniform, the model learns to translate individual input word `i` to `o` if they co-occur frequently. Later, the model learns to attend to `i` while the correct output is $o$ because it knows `i` translates to `o`. To formalize, we define a model property, Knowledge to Translate Individual Words (KTIW) (e.g. knowing that `i` translates to `o`), and claim that it drives the learning of the attention. This claim is supported by the fact that before the attention mechanism is learned, KTIW can be learned from word co-occurrence statistics, but not the other way around. Particularly, we can construct a training distribution that makes KTIW hard to learn, the learning of the attention fails, and the model cannot even learn the simple task of copying the input words to the output. Our approximation explains why models sometimes attend to salient words, and inspires a toy example where a multi-head attention model can overcome the above hard training distribution by improving learning dynamics rather than expressiveness. We end by discussing the limitation of our approximation framework and suggest future directions.

Collin Burns, Jacob Steinhardt

Feature alignment is an approach to improving robustness to distribution shift that matches the distribution of feature activations between the training distribution and test distribution. A particularly simple but effective approach to feature alignment involves aligning the batch normalization statistics between the two distributions in a trained neural network. This technique has received renewed interest lately because of its impressive performance on robustness benchmarks. However, when and why this method works is not well understood. We investigate the approach in more detail and identify several limitations. We show that it only significantly helps with a narrow set of distribution shifts and we identify several settings in which it even degrades performance. We also explain why these limitations arise by pinpointing why this approach can be so effective in the first place. Our findings call into question the utility of this approach and Unsupervised Domain Adaptation more broadly for improving robustness in practice.

Dan Hendrycks, Collin Burns, Saurav Kadavath et al.

Many intellectual endeavors require mathematical problem solving, but this skill remains beyond the capabilities of computers. To measure this ability in machine learning models, we introduce MATH, a new dataset of 12,500 challenging competition mathematics problems. Each problem in MATH has a full step-by-step solution which can be used to teach models to generate answer derivations and explanations. To facilitate future research and increase accuracy on MATH, we also contribute a large auxiliary pretraining dataset which helps teach models the fundamentals of mathematics. Even though we are able to increase accuracy on MATH, our results show that accuracy remains relatively low, even with enormous Transformer models. Moreover, we find that simply increasing budgets and model parameter counts will be impractical for achieving strong mathematical reasoning if scaling trends continue. While scaling Transformers is automatically solving most other text-based tasks, scaling is not currently solving MATH. To have more traction on mathematical problem solving we will likely need new algorithmic advancements from the broader research community.

Sumanth Dathathri, Krishnamurthy Dvijotham, Alexey Kurakin et al.

Convex relaxations have emerged as a promising approach for verifying desirable properties of neural networks like robustness to adversarial perturbations. Widely used Linear Programming (LP) relaxations only work well when networks are trained to facilitate verification. This precludes applications that involve verification-agnostic networks, i.e., networks not specially trained for verification. On the other hand, semidefinite programming (SDP) relaxations have successfully be applied to verification-agnostic networks, but do not currently scale beyond small networks due to poor time and space asymptotics. In this work, we propose a first-order dual SDP algorithm that (1) requires memory only linear in the total number of network activations, (2) only requires a fixed number of forward/backward passes through the network per iteration. By exploiting iterative eigenvector methods, we express all solver operations in terms of forward and backward passes through the network, enabling efficient use of hardware like GPUs/TPUs. For two verification-agnostic networks on MNIST and CIFAR-10, we significantly improve L-inf verified robust accuracy from 1% to 88% and 6% to 40% respectively. We also demonstrate tight verification of a quadratic stability specification for the decoder of a variational autoencoder.