Vanja Falck

Ivan Puga-Gonzalez, Önder Gürcan, Vanja Falck et al.

Climate governance processes involve complex interactions between heterogeneous citizens, advocacy groups, media actors, and political decision-makers. While agent-based models (ABMs) have been widely used to study environmental policy and socio-ecological systems, many existing approaches focus either on institutional dynamics or individual behavioural mechanisms in isolation. This paper presents a modular multi-level agent-based architecture that integrates empirically grounded cognitive decision models with strategic institutional behaviour within a unified simulation framework. The architecture combines (i) motive-based individual decision-making operationalised through the HUMAT and MOA frameworks, (ii) socially embedded influence processes via demographic homophily networks, and (iii) institutional strategy modules for environmental non-governmental organisations (NGOs), media agents, and politicians. Political decisions emerge from the aggregation of multiple signals, including expert input, public mobilisation, party alignment, and media framing. The model is designed to be empirically calibrated through synthetic populations derived from survey data and and institutional parameters informed through Living Lab stakeholder engagement, and to support scenario-based exploration of climate-relevant land-use governance processes. Rather than presenting empirical results, this paper focuses on the architectural design principles, modular structure, and integration logic of the model. We discuss how this multi-layered approach contributes to the modelling of democratic climate governance and outline pathways for generalization and future validation.

Önder Gürcan, Vanja Falck, Markus G. Rousseau et al.

We present Social Digital Twinner, an innovative social simulation tool for exploring plausible effects of what-if scenarios in complex adaptive social systems. The architecture is composed of three seamlessly integrated parts: a data infrastructure featuring real-world data and a multi-dimensionally representative synthetic population of citizens, an LLM-enabled agent-based simulation engine, and a user interface that enable intuitive, natural language interactions with the simulation engine and the artificial agents (i.e. citizens). Social Digital Twinner facilitates real-time engagement and empowers stakeholders to collaboratively design, test, and refine intervention measures. The approach is promoting a data-driven and evidence-based approach to societal problem-solving. We demonstrate the tool's interactive capabilities by addressing the critical issue of youth school dropouts in Kragero, Norway, showcasing its ability to create and execute a dedicated social digital twin using natural language.

Vanja Falck

Using agent-based social simulations can enhance our understanding of urban planning, public health, and economic forecasting. Realistic synthetic populations with numerous attributes strengthen these simulations. The Wasserstein Generative Adversarial Network, trained on census data like EU-SILC, can create robust synthetic populations. These methods, aided by external statistics or EU-SILC weights, generate spatial synthetic populations for agent-based models. The increased access to high-quality micro-data has sparked interest in synthetic populations, which preserve demographic profiles and analytical strength while ensuring privacy and preventing discrimination. This study uses national data from Finland and Greece for Helsinki and Thessaloniki to explore balanced spatial synthetic population generation. Results show challenges related to balancing data with or without aggregated statistics for the target population and the general under-representation of fringe profiles by deep generative methods. The latter can lead to discrimination in agent-based simulations.