Leila Hashemi-Beni

Tewodros Syum Gebre, Jagrati Talreja, Leila Hashemi-Beni

Accurate flood forecasting is essential for mitigating disaster risks and protecting communities. However, purely data-driven machine learning models often struggle in data-scarce environments and may violate fundamental hydrological principles. Standard Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks can generate physically inconsistent predictions, particularly when extrapolating to extreme weather conditions. To address these limitations, we propose a Physics-Informed Machine Learning (PIML) framework that incorporates hydrological knowledge directly into the loss function of an LSTM model. Specifically, a Trend Alignment constraint penalizes directional inconsistencies between precipitation and discharge trends, improving model robustness without requiring complex hydrodynamic equations. This regularization encourages the model to learn physically plausible hydrograph behavior, even with limited training data, while enhancing reliability during peak flood events. Experimental results show that the proposed physics-informed model outperforms a standard LSTM baseline in data-scarce settings, increasing the Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) from 0.20 to 0.23 when trained on only 5% of the available data. Additional stress tests under simulated extreme climate scenarios demonstrate that the baseline model exhibits unstable behavior, whereas the physics-informed model maintains directional consistency and physical plausibility. Although accurately predicting extreme peak magnitudes remains challenging with limited data, the proposed approach substantially reduces unphysical fluctuations common in purely data-driven models. These findings demonstrate that simple physical constraints can significantly improve the reliability of deep learning models for real-time flood forecasting, offering a practical solution for ungauged basins and evolving climate conditions.

Tewodros Syum Gebre, Jagrati Talreja, Matilda Anokye et al.

Rapid and accurate flood extent mapping from Remote Sensing data, such as Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR), is critical for operational disaster response, but standard Deep Learning models often produce physically impossible predictions due to a lack of hydrological constraints. While PhysicsInformed Neural Networks (PINNs) attempt to address this by embedding governing laws directly into the loss function, their application to real-world remote sensing data frequently fails. Enforcing rigid spatial derivatives (e.g., the 2D Shallow Water Equations) onto unconditioned latent spaces attempting to fit noisy SAR speckle causes catastrophic gradient divergence, a phenomenon we term Physics Shock. In this paper, we propose a novel Uncertainty-Aware PINN framework tailored specifically for applied Earth Observation that addresses this instability. By integrating a dynamic Warm-Start protocol and modeling heteroscedastic aleatoric uncertainty via a negative log-likelihood objective, the network learns to dynamically relax physical constraints in regions of high sensor noise while strictly enforcing them in high-confidence areas. Evaluated on the Sen1Floods11 dataset, our probabilistic Attention-Gated FNO-UNet successfully stabilizes multi-objective optimization, achieving a +25% relative improvement in Intersection over Union (IoU) compared to deterministic baselines. Furthermore, through Deep Ensembles, we successfully disentangle intrinsic sensor noise from out-of-distribution terrain ignorance, providing operational agencies with highly calibrated, physically consistent confidence bounds for robust disaster mitigation and real-time decision-making.

Jagrati Talreja, Tewodros Syum Gebre, Leila Hashemi-Beni

Accurate flood water mapping is critical for disaster management, yet current methods struggle to fully exploit the potential of spaceborne imagery. Optical data offers high interpretability but is limited by environmental conditions, whereas SAR provides reliable all-weather coverage with reduced visual interpretability. FLoRA (Fusion Latent for Optical Reconstruction and Area Segmentation) is a cross-modal multi-task framework that jointly reconstructs high-fidelity optical imagery and segments flood water regions from Sentinel 1 SAR by fusing the complementary strengths of optical and SAR data. During training, a lightweight optical teacher (driven by RGB and NDVI priors) provides pyramidal features that guide SAR representations into a fusion latent space via multiscale windowed cross attention and FiLM conditioning, with gated residuals preventing overcorrection. This design enables multi-task learning across two complementary objectives: (a) SAR-to-optical translation for fine-grained RGB reconstruction and (b) flood water region segmentation for hydrologic interpretation. The dual decoders are optimized using Charbonnier SSIM for structural fidelity, edge FFT magnitude losses for spectral realism, and Dice BCE hydrology-aware edge alignment for precise flood water delineation. A feature distillation constraint further aligns fused SAR features with the optical teacher's manifold. Evaluations on SEN1FLOODS11, DEEPFLOOD, and SEN12MS demonstrate that FLoRA surpasses fusion baselines in PSNR, SSIM, and LPIPS, demonstrating that multi-modal fusion within a teacher-guided latent space yields semantically faithful and physically consistent flood-water intelligence from spaceborne observations.