Abhishek K. Umrawal

Abhishek K. Umrawal, Christopher J. Quinn, Vaneet Aggarwal

We consider the problem of Influence Maximization (IM), the task of selecting $k$ seed nodes in a social network such that the expected number of nodes influenced is maximized. We propose a community-aware divide-and-conquer framework that involves (i) learning the inherent community structure of the social network, (ii) generating candidate solutions by solving the influence maximization problem for each community, and (iii) selecting the final set of seed nodes using a novel progressive budgeting scheme. Our experiments on real-world social networks show that the proposed framework outperforms the standard methods in terms of run-time and the heuristic methods in terms of influence. We also study the effect of the community structure on the performance of the proposed framework. Our experiments show that the community structures with higher modularity lead the proposed framework to perform better in terms of run-time and influence.

Nancy Tyagi, Aidin Shiri, Surjodeep Sarkar et al.

Foundational Language Models (FLMs) have advanced natural language processing (NLP) research. Current researchers are developing larger FLMs (e.g., XLNet, T5) to enable contextualized language representation, classification, and generation. While developing larger FLMs has been of significant advantage, it is also a liability concerning hallucination and predictive uncertainty. Fundamentally, larger FLMs are built on the same foundations as smaller FLMs (e.g., BERT); hence, one must recognize the potential of smaller FLMs which can be realized through an ensemble. In the current research, we perform a reality check on FLMs and their ensemble on benchmark and real-world datasets. We hypothesize that the ensembling of FLMs can influence the individualistic attention of FLMs and unravel the strength of coordination and cooperation of different FLMs. We utilize BERT and define three other ensemble techniques: {Shallow, Semi, and Deep}, wherein the Deep-Ensemble introduces a knowledge-guided reinforcement learning approach. We discovered that the suggested Deep-Ensemble BERT outperforms its large variation i.e. BERTlarge, by a factor of many times using datasets that show the usefulness of NLP in sensitive fields, such as mental health.

Abhishek K. Umrawal, Sean P. Lane, Erin P. Hennes

Statistical power is a measure of the replicability of a categorical hypothesis test. Formally, it is the probability of detecting an effect, if there is a true effect present in the population. Hence, optimizing statistical power as a function of some parameters of a hypothesis test is desirable. However, for most hypothesis tests, the explicit functional form of statistical power for individual model parameters is unknown; but calculating power for a given set of values of those parameters is possible using simulated experiments. These simulated experiments are usually computationally expensive. Hence, developing the entire statistical power manifold using simulations can be very time-consuming. We propose a novel genetic algorithm-based framework for learning statistical power manifolds. For a multiple linear regression $F$-test, we show that the proposed algorithm/framework learns the statistical power manifold much faster as compared to a brute-force approach as the number of queries to the power oracle is significantly reduced. We also show that the quality of learning the manifold improves as the number of iterations increases for the genetic algorithm. Such tools are useful for evaluating statistical power trade-offs when researchers have little information regarding a priori best guesses of primary effect sizes of interest or how sampling variability in non-primary effects impacts power for primary ones.

Jiayu Chen, Abhishek K. Umrawal, Tian Lan et al.

With the freight delivery demands and shipping costs increasing rapidly, intelligent control of fleets to enable efficient and cost-conscious solutions becomes an important problem. In this paper, we propose DeepFreight, a model-free deep-reinforcement-learning-based algorithm for multi-transfer freight delivery, which includes two closely-collaborative components: truck-dispatch and package-matching. Specifically, a deep multi-agent reinforcement learning framework called QMIX is leveraged to learn a dispatch policy, with which we can obtain the multi-step joint vehicle dispatch decisions for the fleet with respect to the delivery requests. Then an efficient multi-transfer matching algorithm is executed to assign the delivery requests to the trucks. Also, DeepFreight is integrated with a Mixed-Integer Linear Programming optimizer for further optimization. The evaluation results show that the proposed system is highly scalable and ensures a 100\% delivery success while maintaining low delivery-time and fuel consumption. The codes are available at https://github.com/LucasCJYSDL/DeepFreight.

Xinbo Wu, Abhishek Umrawal, Lav R. Varshney

As large language models (LLMs) grow more capable, concerns about their safe deployment have also grown. Although alignment mechanisms have been introduced to deter misuse, they remain vulnerable to carefully designed adversarial prompts. In this work, we present a scalable attack strategy: intent-hiding adversarial prompting, which conceals malicious intent through the composition of skills. We develop a game-theoretic framework to model the interaction between such attacks and defense systems that apply both prompt and response filtering. Our analysis identifies equilibrium points and reveals structural advantages for the attacker. To counter these threats, we propose and analyze a defense mechanism tailored to intent-hiding attacks. Empirically, we validate the attack's effectiveness on multiple real-world LLMs across a range of malicious behaviors, demonstrating clear advantages over existing adversarial prompting techniques.

Abhishek Kumar Umrawal

Randomized experiments are often performed to study the causal effects of interest. Blocking is a technique to precisely estimate the causal effects when the experimental material is not homogeneous. It involves stratifying the available experimental material based on the covariates causing non-homogeneity and then randomizing the treatment within those strata (known as blocks). This eliminates the unwanted effect of the covariates on the causal effects of interest. We investigate the problem of finding a stable set of covariates to be used to form blocks, that minimizes the variance of the causal effect estimates. Using the underlying causal graph, we provide an efficient algorithm to obtain such a set for a general semi-Markovian causal model.

Abhishek K. Umrawal, Joshua C. C. Chan

We propose a new \textit{quadratic programming-based} method of approximating a nonstandard density using a multivariate Gaussian density. Such nonstandard densities usually arise while developing posterior samplers for unobserved components models involving inequality constraints on the parameters. For instance, Chan et al. (2016) provided a new model of trend inflation with linear inequality constraints on the stochastic trend. We implemented the proposed quadratic programming-based method for this model and compared it to the existing approximation. We observed that the proposed method works as well as the existing approximation in terms of the final trend estimates while achieving gains in terms of sample efficiency.

Mridul Agarwal, Vaneet Aggarwal, Christopher J. Quinn et al.

We consider the bandit problem of selecting $K$ out of $N$ arms at each time step. The reward can be a non-linear function of the rewards of the selected individual arms. The direct use of a multi-armed bandit algorithm requires choosing among $\binom{N}{K}$ options, making the action space large. To simplify the problem, existing works on combinatorial bandits {typically} assume feedback as a linear function of individual rewards. In this paper, we prove the lower bound for top-$K$ subset selection with bandit feedback with possibly correlated rewards. We present a novel algorithm for the combinatorial setting without using individual arm feedback or requiring linearity of the reward function. Additionally, our algorithm works on correlated rewards of individual arms. Our algorithm, aDaptive Accept RejecT (DART), sequentially finds good arms and eliminates bad arms based on confidence bounds. DART is computationally efficient and uses storage linear in $N$. Further, DART achieves a regret bound of $\tilde{\mathcal{O}}(K\sqrt{KNT})$ for a time horizon $T$, which matches the lower bound in bandit feedback up to a factor of $\sqrt{\log{2NT}}$. When applied to the problem of cross-selling optimization and maximizing the mean of individual rewards, the performance of the proposed algorithm surpasses that of state-of-the-art algorithms. We also show that DART significantly outperforms existing methods for both linear and non-linear joint reward environments.

Kaushik Manchella, Abhishek K. Umrawal, Vaneet Aggarwal

The growth in online goods delivery is causing a dramatic surge in urban vehicle traffic from last-mile deliveries. On the other hand, ride-sharing has been on the rise with the success of ride-sharing platforms and increased research on using autonomous vehicle technologies for routing and matching. The future of urban mobility for passengers and goods relies on leveraging new methods that minimize operational costs and environmental footprints of transportation systems. This paper considers combining passenger transportation with goods delivery to improve vehicle-based transportation. Even though the problem has been studied with a defined dynamics model of the transportation system environment, this paper considers a model-free approach that has been demonstrated to be adaptable to new or erratic environment dynamics. We propose FlexPool, a distributed model-free deep reinforcement learning algorithm that jointly serves passengers & goods workloads by learning optimal dispatch policies from its interaction with the environment. The proposed algorithm pools passengers for a ride-sharing service and delivers goods using a multi-hop transit method. These flexibilities decrease the fleet's operational cost and environmental footprint while maintaining service levels for passengers and goods. Through simulations on a realistic multi-agent urban mobility platform, we demonstrate that FlexPool outperforms other model-free settings in serving the demands from passengers & goods. FlexPool achieves 30% higher fleet utilization and 35% higher fuel efficiency in comparison to (i) model-free approaches where vehicles transport a combination of passengers & goods without the use of multi-hop transit, and (ii) model-free approaches where vehicles exclusively transport either passengers or goods.

Mridul Agarwal, Vaneet Aggarwal, Christopher J. Quinn et al.

Many real-world problems like Social Influence Maximization face the dilemma of choosing the best $K$ out of $N$ options at a given time instant. This setup can be modeled as a combinatorial bandit which chooses $K$ out of $N$ arms at each time, with an aim to achieve an efficient trade-off between exploration and exploitation. This is the first work for combinatorial bandits where the feedback received can be a non-linear function of the chosen $K$ arms. The direct use of multi-armed bandit requires choosing among $N$-choose-$K$ options making the state space large. In this paper, we present a novel algorithm which is computationally efficient and the storage is linear in $N$. The proposed algorithm is a divide-and-conquer based strategy, that we call CMAB-SM. Further, the proposed algorithm achieves a \textit{regret bound} of $\tilde O(K^{\frac{1}{2}}N^{\frac{1}{3}}T^{\frac{2}{3}})$ for a time horizon $T$, which is \textit{sub-linear} in all parameters $T$, $N$, and $K$. %When applied to the problem of Social Influence Maximization, the performance of the proposed algorithm surpasses the UCB algorithm and some more sophisticated domain-specific methods.