Timothy R. Cargan

Timothy Cargan, Dario Landa-Silva, Isaac Triguero

As the use of solar power increases, having accurate and timely forecasts will be essential for smooth grid operators. There are many proposed methods for forecasting solar irradiance / solar power production. However, many of these methods formulate the problem as a time-series, relying on near real-time access to observations at the location of interest to generate forecasts. This requires both access to a real-time stream of data and enough historical observations for these methods to be deployed. In this paper, we propose the use of Global methods to train our models in a generalised way, enabling them to generate forecasts for unseen locations. We apply this approach to both classical ML and state of the art methods. Using data from 20 locations distributed throughout the UK and widely available weather data, we show that it is possible to build systems that do not require access to this data. We utilise and compare both satellite and ground observations (e.g. temperature, pressure) of weather data. Leveraging weather observations and measurements from other locations we show it is possible to create models capable of accurately forecasting solar irradiance at new locations. This could facilitate use planning and optimisation for both newly deployed solar farms and domestic installations from the moment they come online. Additionally, we show that training a single global model for multiple locations can produce a more robust model with more consistent and accurate results across locations.

Nasser Alkhulaifi, Ismail Gokay Dogan, Timothy R. Cargan et al.

Decision-making under uncertainty in energy management is complicated by unknown parameters hindering optimal strategies, particularly in Battery Energy Storage System (BESS) operations. Predict-Then-Optimise (PTO) approaches treat forecasting and optimisation as separate processes, allowing prediction errors to cascade into suboptimal decisions as models minimise forecasting errors rather than optimising downstream tasks. The emerging Decision-Focused Learning (DFL) methods overcome this limitation by integrating prediction and optimisation; however, they are relatively new and have been tested primarily on synthetic datasets or small-scale problems, with limited evidence of their practical viability. Real-world BESS applications present additional challenges, including greater variability and data scarcity due to collection constraints and operational limitations. Because of these challenges, this work leverages Automated Feature Engineering (AFE) to extract richer representations and improve the nascent approach of DFL. We propose an AFE-DFL framework suitable for small datasets that forecasts electricity prices and demand while optimising BESS operations to minimise costs. We validate its effectiveness on a novel real-world UK property dataset. The evaluation compares DFL methods against PTO, with and without AFE. The results show that, on average, DFL yields lower operating costs than PTO and adding AFE further improves the performance of DFL methods by 22.9-56.5% compared to the same models without AFE. These findings provide empirical evidence for DFL's practical viability in real-world settings, indicating that domain-specific AFE enhances DFL and reduces reliance on domain expertise for BESS optimisation, yielding economic benefits with broader implications for energy management systems facing similar challenges.