Chengyu Cui

Peiyao Cai, Chengyu Cui, Felipe Maia Polo et al.

We propose a statistical framework built on latent variable modeling for scaling laws of large language models (LLMs). Our work is motivated by the rapid emergence of numerous new LLM families with distinct architectures and training strategies, evaluated on an increasing number of benchmarks. This heterogeneity makes a single global scaling curve inadequate for capturing how performance varies across families and benchmarks. To address this, we propose a latent variable modeling framework in which each LLM family is associated with a latent variable that captures the common underlying features in that family. An LLM's performance on different benchmarks is then driven by its latent skills, which are jointly determined by the latent variable and the model's own observable features. We develop an estimation procedure for this latent variable model and establish its statistical properties. We also design efficient numerical algorithms that support estimation and various downstream tasks. Empirically, we evaluate the approach on 12 widely used benchmarks from the Open LLM Leaderboard (v1/v2).

Chengyu Cui, Gongjun Xu

Nonconvex methods have emerged as a dominant approach for low-rank matrix estimation, a problem that arises widely in machine learning and AI for learning and representing high-dimensional data. Existing analyses for these methods often require additional regularization to mitigate nonconvexity, even though such regularization is often unnecessary in practice. Moreover, most analyses rely on problem-specific arguments that are difficult to generalize to more complex settings. In this paper, we develop a theoretical framework for studying nonconvex procedures across a broad class of low-rank matrix estimation problems. Rather than focusing on a specific model, we reveal a fundamental mechanism that explains why nonconvex procedures can behave well in low-rank estimation. Our key device is a {\it benign regularizer} that does not alter the original update rule, but yields an equivalent locally strongly convex formulation of the algorithm. This perspective uncovers a disguised convexity inherent in the nonconvex procedure and provides a new route to theoretical guarantees for nonconvex low-rank matrix estimation.