Arash Nasr-Esfahany

Arash Nasr-Esfahany, Mohammad Alizadeh, Devavrat Shah

We study counterfactual identifiability in causal models with bijective generation mechanisms (BGM), a class that generalizes several widely-used causal models in the literature. We establish their counterfactual identifiability for three common causal structures with unobserved confounding, and propose a practical learning method that casts learning a BGM as structured generative modeling. Learned BGMs enable efficient counterfactual estimation and can be obtained using a variety of deep conditional generative models. We evaluate our techniques in a visual task and demonstrate its application in a real-world video streaming simulation task.

Pouya Hamadanian, Arash Nasr-Esfahany, Malte Schwarzkopf et al.

We study online reinforcement learning (RL) in non-stationary environments, where a time-varying exogenous context process affects the environment dynamics. Online RL is challenging in such environments due to "catastrophic forgetting" (CF). The agent tends to forget prior knowledge as it trains on new experiences. Prior approaches to mitigate this issue assume task labels (which are often not available in practice), employ brittle regularization heuristics, or use off-policy methods that suffer from instability and poor performance. We present Locally Constrained Policy Optimization (LCPO), an online RL approach that combats CF by anchoring policy outputs on old experiences while optimizing the return on current experiences. To perform this anchoring, LCPO locally constrains policy optimization using samples from experiences that lie outside of the current context distribution. We evaluate LCPO in Mujoco, classic control and computer systems environments with a variety of synthetic and real context traces, and find that it outperforms a variety of baselines in the non-stationary setting, while achieving results on-par with a "prescient" agent trained offline across all context traces. LCPO's source code is available at https://github.com/pouyahmdn/LCPO.

Arash Nasr-Esfahany, Emre Kiciman

Recent advances in probabilistic generative modeling have motivated learning Structural Causal Models (SCM) from observational datasets using deep conditional generative models, also known as Deep Structural Causal Models (DSCM). If successful, DSCMs can be utilized for causal estimation tasks, e.g., for answering counterfactual queries. In this work, we warn practitioners about non-identifiability of counterfactual inference from observational data, even in the absence of unobserved confounding and assuming known causal structure. We prove counterfactual identifiability of monotonic generation mechanisms with single dimensional exogenous variables. For general generation mechanisms with multi-dimensional exogenous variables, we provide an impossibility result for counterfactual identifiability, motivating the need for parametric assumptions. As a practical approach, we propose a method for estimating worst-case errors of learned DSCMs' counterfactual predictions. The size of this error can be an essential metric for deciding whether or not DSCMs are a viable approach for counterfactual inference in a specific problem setting. In evaluation, our method confirms negligible counterfactual errors for an identifiable SCM from prior work, and also provides informative error bounds on counterfactual errors for a non-identifiable synthetic SCM.

Pouya Hamadanian, Pantea Karimi, Arash Nasr-Esfahany et al.

Can an AI autonomously design mechanisms for computer systems on par with the creativity and reasoning of human experts? We present Glia, an AI architecture for networked systems design that uses large language models (LLMs) in a human-inspired, multi-agent workflow. Each agent specializes in reasoning, experimentation, and analysis, collaborating through an evaluation framework that grounds abstract reasoning in empirical feedback. Unlike prior ML-for-systems methods that optimize black-box policies, Glia generates interpretable designs and exposes its reasoning process. When applied to a distributed GPU cluster for LLM inference, it produces new algorithms for request routing, scheduling, and auto-scaling that perform at human-expert levels in significantly less time, while yielding novel insights into workload behavior. Our results suggest that by combining reasoning LLMs with structured experimentation, an AI can produce creative and understandable designs for complex systems problems.

Arash Nasr-Esfahany, Mohammad Alizadeh, Victor Lee et al.

Cycle-level simulators such as gem5 are widely used in microarchitecture design, but they are prohibitively slow for large-scale design space explorations. We present Concorde, a new methodology for learning fast and accurate performance models of microarchitectures. Unlike existing simulators and learning approaches that emulate each instruction, Concorde predicts the behavior of a program based on compact performance distributions that capture the impact of different microarchitectural components. It derives these performance distributions using simple analytical models that estimate bounds on performance induced by each microarchitectural component, providing a simple yet rich representation of a program's performance characteristics across a large space of microarchitectural parameters. Experiments show that Concorde is more than five orders of magnitude faster than a reference cycle-level simulator, with about 2% average Cycles-Per-Instruction (CPI) prediction error across a range of SPEC, open-source, and proprietary benchmarks. This enables rapid design-space exploration and performance sensitivity analyses that are currently infeasible, e.g., in about an hour, we conducted a first-of-its-kind fine-grained performance attribution to different microarchitectural components across a diverse set of programs, requiring nearly 150 million CPI evaluations.

Ali Shirali, Arash Nasr-Esfahany, Abdullah Alomar et al. · berkeley

Alignment with human preferences is commonly framed using a universal reward function, even though human preferences are inherently heterogeneous. We formalize this heterogeneity by introducing user types and examine the limits of the homogeneity assumption. We show that aligning to heterogeneous preferences with a single policy is best achieved using the average reward across user types. However, this requires additional information about annotators. We examine improvements under different information settings, focusing on direct alignment methods. We find that minimal information can yield first-order improvements, while full feedback from each user type leads to consistent learning of the optimal policy. Surprisingly, however, no sample-efficient consistent direct loss exists in this latter setting. These results reveal a fundamental tension between consistency and sample efficiency in direct policy alignment.

Chenning Li, Anton A. Zabreyko, Arash Nasr-Esfahany et al.

Flow-level simulation is widely used to model large-scale data center networks due to its scalability. Unlike packet-level simulators that model individual packets, flow-level simulators abstract traffic as continuous flows with dynamically assigned transmission rates. While this abstraction enables orders-of-magnitude speedup, it is inaccurate by omitting critical packet-level effects such as queuing, congestion control, and retransmissions. We present m4, an accurate and scalable flow-level simulator that uses machine learning to learn the dynamics of the network of interest. At the core of m4 lies a novel ML architecture that decomposes state transition computations into distinct spatial and temporal components, each represented by a suitable neural network. To efficiently learn the underlying flow-level dynamics, m4 adds dense supervision signals by predicting intermediate network metrics such as remaining flow size and queue length during training. m4 achieves a speedup of up to 104$\times$ over packet-level simulation. Relative to a traditional flow-level simulation, m4 reduces per-flow estimation errors by 45.3% (mean) and 53.0% (p90). For closed-loop applications, m4 accurately predicts network throughput under various congestion control schemes and workloads.

Abdullah Alomar, Pouya Hamadanian, Arash Nasr-Esfahany et al.

We present CausalSim, a causal framework for unbiased trace-driven simulation. Current trace-driven simulators assume that the interventions being simulated (e.g., a new algorithm) would not affect the validity of the traces. However, real-world traces are often biased by the choices algorithms make during trace collection, and hence replaying traces under an intervention may lead to incorrect results. CausalSim addresses this challenge by learning a causal model of the system dynamics and latent factors capturing the underlying system conditions during trace collection. It learns these models using an initial randomized control trial (RCT) under a fixed set of algorithms, and then applies them to remove biases from trace data when simulating new algorithms. Key to CausalSim is mapping unbiased trace-driven simulation to a tensor completion problem with extremely sparse observations. By exploiting a basic distributional invariance property present in RCT data, CausalSim enables a novel tensor completion method despite the sparsity of observations. Our extensive evaluation of CausalSim on both real and synthetic datasets, including more than ten months of real data from the Puffer video streaming system shows it improves simulation accuracy, reducing errors by 53% and 61% on average compared to expert-designed and supervised learning baselines. Moreover, CausalSim provides markedly different insights about ABR algorithms compared to the biased baseline simulator, which we validate with a real deployment.

Mehrdad Khani, Pouya Hamadanian, Arash Nasr-Esfahany et al.

Real-time video inference on edge devices like mobile phones and drones is challenging due to the high computation cost of Deep Neural Networks. We present Adaptive Model Streaming (AMS), a new approach to improving performance of efficient lightweight models for video inference on edge devices. AMS uses a remote server to continually train and adapt a small model running on the edge device, boosting its performance on the live video using online knowledge distillation from a large, state-of-the-art model. We discuss the challenges of over-the-network model adaptation for video inference, and present several techniques to reduce communication cost of this approach: avoiding excessive overfitting, updating a small fraction of important model parameters, and adaptive sampling of training frames at edge devices. On the task of video semantic segmentation, our experimental results show 0.4--17.8 percent mean Intersection-over-Union improvement compared to a pre-trained model across several video datasets. Our prototype can perform video segmentation at 30 frames-per-second with 40 milliseconds camera-to-label latency on a Samsung Galaxy S10+ mobile phone, using less than 300 Kbps uplink and downlink bandwidth on the device.